Hello, and welcome to the second volume of my South Australian politics tracker! The original tracker was getting abit unwieldy (turns out adding dozens of news clips nearly 100mb big takes a toll on a Blogger page, whodatunk). I'm going to continue covering SA politics and its updates in this thread here, but if you want to check out the original thread (I highly suggest you do for continuity's sake), check it here.
07/12/2025 - A New Poll and the Vultures Come Knocking
Exciting news today (yesterday actually, but who's counting). A new poll dropped for South Australia, this one by new polling firm Fox and Hedgehog (founded by ex-advisor to Peter Dutton, Michael Horner) and its more bad news for the SA Liberals. I'll do a quick table below to show you what I mean.
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Fox & Hedgehog Dec 2025
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DemosAU Oct 2025
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YouGov May 2025
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2022 State Election
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Primary
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Labor
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41%
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47%
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48%
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40%
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Liberal
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21%
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21%
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21%
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35.7%
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Greens
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12%
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13%
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14%
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9.1%
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One Nation
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13%
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N/A
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7%
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2.6%
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Others
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13%
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19%
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10%
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12.6%
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2PP
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Labor
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61%
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66%
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67%
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54.6%
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Liberal
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39%
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34%
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33%
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45.1%
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.
As you can see by this table, the Liberals have stagnated to 21% of the primary vote across 3 separate polls (across 6 months). This primary vote is nearly 15% worse than their result at the 2022 state election, and its consistency is a sign that it will probably hold true in March. Even the silver lining of their 2PP increasing from the YouGov poll to the Fox and Hedgehog poll by 6% isn't the best, it still means their down 6% on their 2PP from 2022. More interesting is the decrease in Labor's primary vote, going from 48% to 41%, near equal to their result at the 2022 state election. The only increase that matches that decrease in the same time period is One Nations, which is a weird thing to think about. Though the increase in One Nation's popularity may have caused Liberal voters turned Labor to turn again, seeing a new 'viable' right-wing party to support.
Meanwhile, in terms of approval, things are not looking good for the Liberals either. Peter Malinauskas has maintained a high approval rating of 51% compared to a 19% disapproval (with 5% claiming to have never heard of him, I'd like to meet the people who did an online political poll who've also never heard of the uber-popular premier). Tarzia, in what is likely to be his last poll, had an approval rating of 17% and a disapproval of 25%, for a -8 score. This is bad, but it only gets worse. Ashton Hurn, seen by near-on everyone as the successor to Tarzia, only had the approval of 10% of the respondents. And while only 12% disapproved of her, the bigger issue was that 49% of respondents claimed to have never heard of her. Trying to close that gap in a positive light with only 3 months remaining, the vast majority of which are holiday months where people won't be paying much attention is an impossible task. For comparison, Tarzia, whose been opposition leader for a year, was unknown to 22% of respondents. Hurn, if she chooses the job, may very well be facing the most impossible task of them all.
Finally, as a quick note, 33% of people both approved and disapproved of One Nation, 26% approved of Family First while 24% disapproved, 25% approved of the SA Liberals while 36% disapproved, and 43% approved of SA Labor while 27% disapproved. By every metric, March will be a Labor landslide.
However, that is not all for today! The ABC has come out with a story mentioning that not even Josh Teague's position as Deputy Leader is safe. Frank Pangallo, who by party rules is not allowed to be deputy leader (as he is in the upper house still), has apparently sought advice on whether it is possible for him to contest Teague's position on Monday. Teague, who has stated that he will not go for the position of leader on Monday despite two previous attempts, has said that he is not planning on leaving the position of Deputy leader. In any case, Pangallo has made it very clear he wants to be Deputy leader, saying that if he "could be" he "probably would" and even claiming to have forgotten/not known that Teague was planning on keeping his position. To be fair, its not like Pangallo is long for this political world, with his bid for the seat of Waite likely to be a loss in March.
To end this update, enjoy a picture posted of Greens candidate for Waite Declan Brumfield that the Boothby Greens inexplicably 'deep-fried'.
News ArticlesThe Advertiser | Exclusive poll: Just 10pc of voters approve of likely Liberal leader Ashton Hurn
ABC | Frank Pangallo eyed deputy leadership as SA Liberal MPs back Ashton Hurn
05/12/2025 - Labor picks their Mount Gambier candidate
Two updates in a day, how wild is this? Well, to be honest, this update should've come out a couple days ago but I unfortunately missed it, so here it is now. Labor has announced that Matthew Key will be their candidate for Mount Gambier. Now, Key is a new face in state politics, so there's no election results to discuss. But he does have a pretty long background to go over. He's been everything from a Store Manager at Game Retail to a Station Manager for Dusty Radio, a Chairperson for the Cooper Pedy drive-in cinema (with multiple ABC articles about him), and more. But more recently, he's focused on teaching. He was a teacher at the Copy Pedy Area School before becoming Deputy Principal at the Mulga St Primary School and is now the Education Co-ordinator (Arts, Tech, and ICT) for the Mount Gambier High School. More importantly for his electoral experience, he is the secretary of the South Australian Philosophy in Education Association, and a Branch Executive for the Australian Education Union (actual union experience in a Labor candidate??? Insane). Finally, according to The SE Voice, he is the president of the Mount Gambier Theatre Group, and failed to win the position of AEU SA president back in 2023.
All of this shows that, while he may not have much political experience, he has experience in a wide variety of things, and that can mean something on an electoral level. However, with the Liberal candidate (Lamorna Alexander) having been chosen already, and an Independent candidate in Travis Fatchen having strong community roots (Cody Scholes doesn't have a chance), Key will have a mountain to climb to win the seat. Even with the very likely massive Labor swing, Mount Gambier has not been red since 1975, and it would take a struggle to change that.
News Article
05/12/2025 - Vincent Tarzia is GONE!
Hello again! Been abit since the last update, conferences and life have kept me busy but we are back. Lets start with the big news headline for this update, Vincent Tarzia has stepped down as leader of the Liberal Party. Now, Tarzia has been 'under fire' from those within his party for some time now, with
The Advertiser reporting last week that there was a
significant push to replace Tarzia with shadow minister for health and member for Schubert Ashton Hurn. It seemed like this rumour was little more than smoke by the start of this week, as both Hurn and Tarzia denied the claims, but with Tarzia resigning today it seems only likely that the push was actually real. Whether Tarzia simply needed a week to get his 'affairs' in order, or if he had enough support to hold on for abit longer is impossible to say, but it seems likely that his resignation is due to the push for Hurn. Despite that, Hurn has not officially stepped up as Liberal leader yet, as much as
The Advertiser seems to be pre-emptively claiming as such, and so the Liberal party is currently leaderless only 3 months before the election.
What does this all mean for the Liberal Party? Well, it likely means that the rumours of them only winning a couple seats at most will be true. Even if Hurn is a better operator than Tarzia, and thats not a certainty, people naturally dislike instability this close to an election. Hurn will have to deal with endless attacks regarding the Liberal Party's stability that she can't just thrust back upon Labor, and in fact, this change removes the Liberals' ability to attack the many retirements that Labor has gone through recently. All of this amounts to the fact that, unless some miracle happens, the Liberals are not only destined to lose but Hurn may lose her seat as leader, to a 20-year-old university student at that. We'll see if any polling is done soon to confirm this, but I suspect the Liberals are fried fish come March.
Moving on from the mess that are the Liberal Party in SA, the Greens also announced 3 new candidates this week. They are Steffi Medrow for Cheltenham, Jenn Tranter for Morialta, and Declan Brumfield for Waite. I've put some short bios about them below;
Steffi Medrow (Cheltenham) - A production manager at a signage company, she has contested Cheltenham in multiple elections for the Greens previously. This includes the 2018 state election, where she received 6.3% of the vote, the 2019 by-election, where she won 14.6% of the vote, and the 2022 state election, where she received 10.9% of the vote. Being a part of the furniture for elections within Cheltenham, you'd think she'd be expecting a decent rise in votes this time round, otherwise it may be her last go.
Jenn Tranter (Morialta) - A teacher and educational counsellor for 30+ years, Tranter has been an executive member of the Morialta Residents' Association for 20 years as well. In September of this year, she ran for Councillor for Ranges Ward for the Adelaide Hills Council, winning 10.3% of the votes at the supplementary election. As it seems, she is very much embedded in her local community, in a way that could bring some people confidence, and for many others, anxiety that she is too 'Resident's Association'-minded.
Declan Brumfield (Waite) - I HAVE FOUND LITERALLY NOTHING ON THIS MAN. I mean it, he is a digital ghost. At best, I think he is or was a photographer at either a professional or hobby level, but there is nothing else online about him. Hopefully he has good local outreach, because he's not got many online credentials to go off of should voters in Waite want to look him up.
Finally for today, just a quick note that Mark Aldridge, leader of the United Voice Australia Party, has stated that he is now running in the upper house for the party, despite having said earlier this year that he'd be running in Ramsay again. The man does my head in.
News Articles
News Clips
7 News
19/11/2025 - SA Socialists Candidates Revealed & The Greens have something to say about the climate
Firstly, some major news in regards to the SA Socialists. As I have been told on Bluesky, as well as by others in person, the party has officially decided upon two candidates for the 2026 state election. These are Ahmed Azhar (Croydon) and Leila Clendon (Enfield). Now, Azhar is someone I am decently familiar with. He's been a prolific speaker at rallies and protests organised by groups which the SA Socialists are connected to, most often speaking on the issue of Israel and Palestine, and the ongoing genocide there. Azhar's speaking at/MCing these rallies goes all the way back to 2023, only 3 years after he was involved in student politics at the University of Adelaide as a candidate for Left Action in the 2020 student election. Perhaps most noteworthy is that he was
arrested at his own home for his participation in a pro-Palestine protest in October. While the specific reason for his arrest is unknown, with him having been charged under the
Summary Offences (Obstruction of Public Places) Amendment Act 2023, the arrest caused outrage amongst politicians such as Greens MLC Robb Simms, and SA-Best MLC Connie Bonaros. In addition, despite pleading guilty, his case was dismissed. All of this is to say that, Azhar is someone whose been involved with state politics, atleast on a leftist level, for a while now, and he has been at the forefront of recent Socialist events.
Leila Clendon, on the other hand, isn't as prolific a name (at the very least, she hasn't been arrested like Azhar). A teacher, Clendon has also been a speaker at recent socialist events, most recently being one of SA Socialists' speakers at the Rally for Abortion Rights two weeks ago, which opposed Sarah Game's anti-abortion bill (see below). Clendon is also somebody whose been featured in stupol, and perhaps more heavily than Azhar. Running as a candidate for Left Action in 2024, Clendon was amongst the Left Action candidates disqualified in a controversial decision due to campaigning in a Victorian Socialists shirt. The whole saga was an interesting experience to live through (as a student of the university during it), and it essentially saw Left Action candidates disqualified for an issue that they had already received a one-day campaigning ban for, with the disqualification coming only after the campaigning ban was challenged by other candidates. In the end, the election for president had to be redone, as El Hall (Left Action) and Georgia Thomas (Unite), the first and second place finishers for the spot, were both disqualified. Leaving that aside (though it is a story I will probably tell one day), Clendon, like Azhar, is a suitably experienced choice for the Socialists.
As an aside, I have also been alerted to the fact that Socialist Alliance are running a candidate in Port Adelaide. Who this is, I have no clue just yet. When I find out, I will let you all know. It should also be noted that whoever they choose won't actually be running under the Socialist Alliance name, since they aren't a registered party in SA, but as an independent.
Onto the other topic of today's update, the new policy from the Greens. Really, its actually a policy suite, and boy are there so many of them. To make things simple, I'm simply going to dot point each of them below;
- Phase out gas power and gas appliances in homes
- A Sustainable Househould Fund; low-interest loans for homeowners and landlords to electrify appliances in their properties
- Legislate a target for net-zero emissions by 2035
- End the sponsorship of the Tour Down Under by Santos, amongst other events (a favourite of candidate Alexandra McGee, for Florey, who suggested that it was more important than public transport issues)
- Scrap all subsidies and gas exploration permits for companies like Santos
- Create a Resource Efficiency Fund for those living on community title and strata schemes
- Introduce a levy on plastic waste
- $200mil over 4 years to protect marine ecosystems and tackle the algal bloom
- $4mil per year to rehabilitate marine wildlife after it has cleared up
- Support bids for the Adelaide Park Lands and Mount Lofty Ranges to be UNESCO World Heritage listed
- Strengthen tree canopy laws by updating a significant tree register and amending the Native Vegetation Regulations
- Increase penalties for the illegal removal of native vegetation
- Double grants for native restoration to $20 million each year
- Require permission and approval before removing a tree close to a dwelling
There's a bunch of excellent policies in there, the scrapping of gas subsidies, the net-zero target, the strengthening of tree canopy laws and pushing for more native vegetation. However, the big ticket item of 'phasing out gas appliances' is simply a magnet for backlash. I get why its there, but for the vast majority of people, it is simply a small thing that they'll blow up about. In a climate where the Greens are struggling to push against a surging Labor (at least in terms of South Australia), its hard to see policies like these helping their electoral vote, even if, on principle and fact, they make sense.
News Articles
InDaily | Exclusive: Greens unveil plan to ban gas from SA households
12/11/2025 - Sarah Game's Anti-Abortion bill fails
In some good news, for a saga that keeps on happening despite everyone wanting it to be done with, Sarah Game's anti-abortion bill has failed. The bill, which sought to tightly restrict abortion after 23 weeks, was voted down 8-11. Before I note the 'known voters' below, I did want to quickly go over the abhorrent campaign ran by the anti-abortion campaigners. Namely, Joanna Howe. Howe, a professor of law at the University of Adelaide, has been the main figurehead and power behind the anti-abortion push in SA. You may remember her from the last vote where she literally intimidated Jing Lee into changing her vote, and was subsequently banned from parts of parliament for her conduct. Well, with this ongoing campaign, Howe has only (somehow) managed to stoop lower. She recently created an AI ad, using the deeply saddening story of a mother who had an abortion as its backdrop, and superimposing an AI-generated baby onto the mother telling the story. The AI-generated baby continually guilted the mother for her choice, in an ad which may be the coldest I have seen in my entire life. Meanwhile, today, Howe made her own 'game' out of the abortion debate, promising people points for a raffle if they paid for words which may be said by those debating in the Legislative Council. Safe to say, this abhorrent behaviour didn't go unnoticied in parliament, with Tammy Franks especially tearing Howe down.
Moving on from the disaster that is Howe, as I mentioned, the bill was voted down 8 votes for to 11 against. While we don't have the full identities of who voted where, we do have some, courtesy of reddit user /u/Expensive-Horse5538 and their thread here. According to them, the voters were as such;
Those who voted against the bill:
- Kyam Maher (Deputy Premier, ALP)
- Tammy Franks (Independent)
- Robert Simms (Greens)
- Michelle Lensink (Liberals)
- Jing Lee (Jing Lee – Better Community)
- Ian Hunter (Labor)
- Connie Bonaros (SA Best)
- Mira El-Dannawi (ALP)
- Emily Bourke (ALP)
- Justin Hanson (ALP)
- Russell Wortley (ALP)
Those who voted for the bill:
- Sarah Game (Fair Go)
- Ben Hood (Liberals)
- Heidi Girolamo (Liberal)
- Nicola Centofanti (Liberal)
- Dennis Hood (Liberal)
- Clare Scriven (ALP)
- Tung Ngo (ALP)
- Frank Pangallo (Liberals)
*Should also be noted that Laura Henderson (Liberal, for the bill) and Reggie Martin (ALP against the bill) paired out due to Henderson being on maternity leave.
Now, you may be wondering why Tung Ngo and Clare Scriven voted for the bill, being Labor and all? Well, they're both deeply catholic, with Scriven being especially religious. She is so religious that, quite recently, she attended the 'Seeking God for SA' Conference, which saw her speak alongside Deepa Mathew (Family First), Christopher Brohier (Family First), Dennis Hood (Liberals), and Ben Hood (Liberals). Her vote here is not that shocking all things considered, and both her and Ngo voted for the previous anti-abortion bill in 2024. What is more interesting is Jing Lee's vote against the bill, which she says is due to a year of research and education, and which I think is just down to her wanting to spite Howe. Both options are valid, in any case.
What this means for the state election is quite interesting. Game has already said she won't be backing down from the anti-abortion rhetoric, and so I assume she'll bring it into the next election as a policy. However, I doubt the whole saga has gone the way she wanted it, as she now has lost a key vote in the Legislative Council and is stuck with Joanna Howe as a hanger on (or is it the other way around?). Either way, Game and Howe probably aren't finished with their, and pardon my french, bullshit, so don't be shocked to see them here again soon.
News Articles
ABC | Abortion legislation voted down in South Australian Parliament
07/11/2025 - 12 new Greens candidates drop
Well, yesterday we got our biggest individual candidate 'drop' of the year, with the Greens revealing 12 new candidates for seats from Badcoe to Port Adelaide. Some are familiar electoral faces, others are new, and one is (and I say this with all sincerity), a legitimate clown. So follow me as I go through the 12 candidates one by one.
- Josh Andersen-Ward (Badcoe)
The first candidate on our list is a completely new one as far as I can tell. Andersen-Ward's not got any electoral experience to speak of, but he does have some significant credentials to back him up. He's been a corporate lawyer for SA Water, a Paralegal for RSA Law, a Complaints Officer for the Commonwealth Ombudsman, a Facilities Support Officer for CSIRO, and is currently studying his Masters in Accounting and Finance. He's not really the type of candidate you'd expect to be running for the Greens (finance and legal guy doesn't strike me as the type), so I'll be interested to hear more about him.
- Sarah Luscombe (Black)
Our second is our first returning electoral candidate. Luscombe is probably best known as being the Green's candidate at the 2024 by-election for Black when David Speirs resigned from the seat. At that election, she won 13.1% of the vote, up by 1.3% from Liz Tidemann's result in 2022. She is also another local politician entering the 2025 election, being a councillor for the Coastal Ward of the City of Marion. She is also a clinical psychologist, working primarily with children. All of this is to say that Luscombe is probably the most 'promising' of the bunch, though with rumours that Speirs is eyeing a return to politics, it seems that Black will be a very difficult seat to contest.
- Susan Ditter (Bragg)
Ditter does not have much on her in regards to her current life in South Australia. Annoying, I know. However, her past does shed some light on her. She was a board member for the Pride Foundation Australia in Tasmania, the Executive Officer of Working It Out, and the chair of the board for the National LGBTI Health Alliance. All of this is to say that she is, obviously, an LGBTQI+ ally and advocate (as can be seen by her parlimanetary submissions on multiple issues). She is also the granddaughter of Otto Kurt Ditter, founder of Ditters Nuts which can be found in the Adelaide Arcade.
- Matthew Wright (Colton)
There is barely anything out there about Matthew Wright, and most searches for him are dominated by the Matthew Wright who played for the Adelaide Crows between 2011-2015. I can tell you two things about him though. Firstly, he was the Greens candidate for Hindmarsh at the 2025 federal election, winning 13.6% of the vote there (down 0.3% from 2022). Secondly, he is not the Matthew Wright who was the candidate for Sturt for the Nick Xenophon Team at the 2016 federal election who wasn't actually sure what NXT stood for. Unfortunately for Wright, and his future SEO, he's sandwiched between a middling football player and a mostly forgotten political candidate that will still overwhelm him search engine wise.
- John Photakis (Davenport)
Another Greens candidate who there is scarcely little about, and who also contested a previous election. And trust me, I tried finding anything about Photakis, I've known about his candidacy for weeks, and theres just nothing. What little I can find is from him, and it is essentially is that he's a 'stupol hack' (ahving been in student council at Flinders Uni and student voice at TAFE SA), and is a perennial candidate. He contested Kingston at the 2025 federal election for the Greens, getting 13.5% of the vote (up 1% from 2022), at the 2022 federal election for the Greens, getting 12.4% of the vote (up 3.2% from 2019), and Davenport in the 2022 state election for the Greens, getting 9.4% of the vote (up 2.2%). His candidancy for the Greens actually goes all the way back to the 2018 state election (also for Davenport), and he was a council candidate for the Thalassa Ward of the City of Onkaparinga in 2022. All that is to say that, him having nothing but politics on the internet means there probably isn't much more there in reality, but he's only gone up in votes year-on-year, so we'll see if he does any better this time round.
- Stef Rozitis (Elder)
Rozitis has a long resume of teaching going on for over a decade. She's been a school teacher, a preschool teacher, and a tutor at all three major universities. More interesting to me, she is a member of the 'Woke Lesbo Symposium', "a collective of writers from Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia of diverse backgrounds, gender identities and sexual orientations whose members produce creative work and scholarship within a social justice framework." She's also a previous candidate of the Greens, having ran for the seat of Badcoe at the 2018 state election, getting 7.9% of the vote (down 3.9% but that is due to the seat being redistributed from the seat of Ashford and the existence of NXT).
- David Deex (Elizabeth)
Another previous candidate of the Greens, Deex ran for the seat of Spence in the 2022 federal election, winning 11.3% of the vote (up 4.14%). He is also a member of the Anti-Poverty Network. Perhaps most notable about them is that they were the Youth Governor for the 2024 South Australian Youth Parliament. Deex's speech as Youth Governor included a quote from the village people, so, there's some good taste there at least.
Deex as Youth Governor at the back
- Alexandra McGee (Florey)
McGee is another one of the Greens candidates with a long resume. She's been a tutor/manager for the International College of Hospitality and Management, the University of Adelaide, and TAFE SA. She's also been an assessor for foundational English at two colleges and the academic team leader at a military technological college, all in Oman, as well as Head of Oman's Dental College and Project Manager for the British Council in Oman. Finally, she's also been an english teacher in Korea and Japan as well. Add on her volunteering experiences with Girl Guides SA and Backpacks for Kids, and she seems to have a veritable wealth of world experience, at the very least. Honestly, where do people find the time?
- Melanie Searle (Hartley)
Off the bat, Searle is the most like Labor's most recent candidates, in that, like them, she was already very well connected to the party's internals. Searle has been the executive assistant for the SA Greens for the last two years, and before that held a litany of various jobs. These include Medical Secretary for an Endoscopy Clinic, Personal Assistant to Investment SA's CEO, Project Officer for Health Industries SA, an Audio Typist for Urology SA, and an Executive Assistant at Baptist Care SA. Not much to say about her politically, but she has got a degree in International Development which she specifically highlights on her candidate page.
- Sean Weatherly (Kaurna)
Weatherly might be my favourite candidate of the 2026 state election so far. Firstly, he is a previous candidate, having ran for the Greens in Kaurna in the 2022 state election, winning 10.8% of the vote (up 1.7%). He's been a council candidate before for the city of Onkaparinga and is a member of the Anti-Poverty Network. All of this though pales into what actually makes me interested in him, in that he is a genuine stage performer. Now, he does say he is also a film and TV performer on his website, but his IMDB suggests he has been, at best, an extra with a couple of lines. However, he has his own stage production company, Loaded Productions, which has performed at various Fringe festivals and has the ongoing musical "Price Check! The Supermarket Musical". This musical is described as "The world's first post Covid-19 musical, set in a suburban supermarket the year after the pandemic" and all its messaging seems very socially conscious, but I'd be interested to watch it. Finally, and perhaps most notable to me (and I want to state I am not making any fun here, I am just genuinely interested), Weatherly has, for the last 15 years, preformed as Noodles the Clown. This, and his alternate persona Pirate Sean, mean that it is highly likely many South Australians who are voting for the first time this election may have had Weatherly at their childhood birthdays, which I think is an incredibly interesting concept. I've linked the photos down below mainly because I'm interested to see if anyone who stumbles across this blog has any experience with Noodles.
Sean as Pirate Sean
Sean as Noodles the Clown
- Isabella Litt (Morphett)
A new entrant into the political arena, Isabella Litt is, in her own words, "a certified yoga teacher, meditation enthusiast, intuitive tarot reader, and facilitator of women's circles". She is qualified in Vinyasa, Yin, and Tibetan (Mastery of) Yoga, as well as being a counsellor, and a Usui Reiki Master. I assume you're as confused as I am, and if you're not, please let me know what all this means.
- Hayden Shaw (Port Adelaide)
Now, Shaw is perhaps the most non-Greens candidate I've ever seen. He is an Army vet, a small business owner and a financial professional, and a volunteer for sporting organisations. Atleast, thats what his candidate page says he is, as, also unlike most Greens candidates, he's not easy to find online. If I find more, I'll write it in here.
25/10/2025 - Hammond's got a new candidate (that I missed)
Just a short supplementary update to the thread, since I somehow missed this a couple days prior. Labor has announced their candidate for Hammond (the seat that holds Murray Bridge), it being Mid-Murray Mayor Simone Bailey. Bailey's got a background in finance (everything from being an auditor, to an investigator, to an accountant) and otherwise is a board member for an aged care association and Country Arts SA.
She's the third announced candidate for Hammond, following the Liberal's Adrian Pederick (the current MP), and Independent Arline Keen (Mayor for Murray Bridge).
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25/10/2025 - Housing is back on the menu
This week has seen the Greens, Labor, and the Liberals all dish out (atleast part) of their housing policy going into the coming election. They range from good, to eh, to not good respectively, even if the Liberals get points for creativity.
Breaking it down chronologically, the Greens were first off the block with their housing policy announcement. While the headlines were a $6.7bn cost with plans to build 20,000 public homes in 4 years and clear out the public housing maintenance backlog (which is currently at an unsustainable level), perhaps most interesting is the fact that the Greens announced their goal of re-establishing the SA Housing Trust as a publicly owned builder. The Trust would then be the one to develop those 20,000 homes and clear out the backlog without having to engage with private contractors. This, of course, is both a short- and long-term policy. Unchaining the housing trust from its need to work with private companies would allow it to focus on building up public housing to combat the current housing crisis, and also plan additional housing supply in the long term. As such, there's not much to complain about with the Greens' policy, especially as they also announced that they'd be establishing a Commissioner for Rental Tenancies who'd have the power to investigate and enact penalties around renters' rights infringements.
From this good (and cohesive) policy, we move onto the Liberals, whose policy left alot to be desired. Really, I'm shocked it was announced as a standalone policy. Their policy is a $40mil fund to build 4,000 prefabricated and modular homes by 2032. Note, that is around 666 homes per year from 2026, versus the Greens' 5,000 homes per year. There's not really much to talk about with this policy other than it's half-baked and otherwise not the most helpful on its own, though points for creative thinking that the housing crisis can be fixed in this manner.
And finally, today Labor has announced its latest housing policy. The policy is a $500m guarantee fund that apartment developers in the CDB can join. This fund would see the government guarantee up to 50% of a development's apartments (up to a $30m cap) and buy apartments that remain unsold for 10% less than the market rate. There's alot of terms and conditions attached to it that aren't super relevant right now, but broadly, this is an eh policy. It'll likely fast-track a few apartments, but as far as I can tell there's no restriction on whether these apartments need to be affordable, built for families, or built well. Without that, it's possible that developers building apartments for short-term living or the rich will attach themselves to this guarantee, and that won't really help the housing crisis. It also isn't a comprehensive or long-term policy, and is lacking ambition. I would've preferred a government with a near-certain chance of a total victory at the election to bring out policies which could be described in any of those ways, but maybe I ask too much.
To end this update, I should note that the SA Socialists have had their party registration approved. Based on the InDaily article I'll link, and my own conversations with them, they'll be having their conference in November where they'll be revealing their candidates. For now, I've edited the party tracker, which you
can find here.
News Articles:
News Clips
9 News
21/10/2025 - A Poll finally lands in our laps
For readability's sake, I've provided the polls at the bottom of this post.
Rejoice! The wait for state polling has finally finished. Seriously, we were in a major drought there for a second, with no poll since May and no poll featuring the Legislative Council since September 2022! The poll is highly welcome, as it provides me room to both confirm my speculation, and speculate even more. I'll leave the in-depth analysis to those who know it, I'm no expert on methodology or polling numbers, but it should be noted that the poll was undertaken by DemosAU and Ace Strategies and surveyed 1,006 South Australians with a 3.9% margin of error.
Now, diving into the poll, there's actually not much to discuss in regards to the lower house. Labor polled at 66% 2PP and 47% primary (both 1% lower than the last poll) while the Liberals have polled a dismal 34% 2PP (1% lower) and 21% primary (no change). There are no kind words to be said here for the Liberals' result, it is a horror show of the most disastrous proportions. And interestingly, this isn't a result I am entirely shocked by. The current talk around Adelaide is that some of the Liberal's internal polling has shown that Labor will win every seat in the state bar the ones held by Independents. This poll, rather worringly for the Liberals, seems to fall on the side of that talk being true. But its not all sunshine and rainbows for the 'left' in SA either. The Greens saw their primary polling drop from 13% to 11%, in what may be a repeat of the federal election for them. It does not help that the Greens are being assailed from two sides, with the resignation of Tammy Franks from their party and the foundation of the SA Socialists. Finally, 'Other' recieved a result of 19%, which would be incredibly high come the election, but does also show what I suspect to be a desire for independent candidates in specific seats (think Keiran Snape in Adelaide or Ryan Harrison in Unley).
I want to move on from the boring lower house, though, to talk about the super interesting upper house. Labor polled at 37%, while the Liberals got only 17%. According to InDaily, this is a drop of 17.4% since the previous election for the Liberals (Labor had no change), an absolute shattering for the party, with it being projected that they would on win 2 seats to Labor's 4. One Nation meanwhile polled at 12%, 7.8% higher than the last election, and the Greens polled at 11%, 2% higher than the last election. Both parties were predicted to get one seat each, meaning that if the election was held today, Christel Mex and Carlos Quaremba would be joining the Legislative Council. It'd also mean that only Ben Hood and Heidi Girolamo would retain their seats from the Liberals, with all their other candidates having to fight over scraps. But there are scraps to be fought over, as according to the polls, 3 seats are in doubt.
And that is where the minor parties come in. 3 parties have polled at 4%, those being the Animal Justice Party, Legalise Cannabis, and SA-Best. Both AJP and SA-Best saw increases of over 2%, while Legalise Cannabis rose by just under 2%. This, imo, is the best indication that there's want for more from Labor and the SA political scene in general. SA-Best is essentially a dead brand run by a single politician (Connie Bonaros) who barely uses its name. AJP and Legalise Cannabis, while rising 'stars' across the political scene, are still not the most significant or well-run parties. And yet, if the preferences fall their way, all three parties have a shot at getting a seat. If you don't believe me, Sarah Game won her seat off just over 4.1% of the vote due to preferencing in 2022, and now we have 4 parties essentially at the same percent, atleast according to this poll. Moving on though, we have two parties who each polled at 3%, the Australian Family Party (Bob Day in a trenchcoat) and Family First, having gained 2.1% and lost 0.1% respectively. This is interesting for three reasons. Firstly, that Bob Day in a trenchcoat is able to take on the national Family First Party, whose playing in a usual strong state for them. Secondly, that 6% of South Australians want to vote for a 'Family' Party, and that they evenly split themselves amongst the two. And that thirdly, if the parties unified, according to the poll they'd have 6% of the vote which would probably be more than enough to get them a seat. Horrifying when you look at it that way, really.
Only 1 party got 2%, that being Stephen Pallaras - Real Change SA. Not much to say here, he's up 1.1% from the election, so he must be doing something right. If the 'mysterious' crash he was in doesn't slow him down, he could fight a real law and order campaign. And that takes us to the 1% parties. This includes the Nationals, who I consider an essentially dead party here, Sarah Game's Fair Go for Australians and the United Voice Australia Party. Game will probably not be happy that her party polled so low, considering it has a sitting MLC, recognisable names such as Henry Davis and Jake Hall-Evans, and the support of people like Dr Joanna Howe. Sitting next to Mark Aldridge's UVAP cannot feel good when you think of it like that (though Aldridge has been eternally shilling his party everywhere he goes). It is likely that the skyrocketing PHON poll has destroyed Sarah Game's chances, although there is every chance that the arrival of Turning Point SA (whose host, George-Alexander Mamalis is very close friends with Game and Davis) could turn things around if the conservative brand supports Fair Go. I'd absolutely hate it though. Ah, and before I forget, Jing Lee - Better Community polled an astonishing 0%. Maybe if the party had a better name or candidates or policies or something, it might do better.
Before I round off this post, I did want to note what the poll excluded. Or more specifically, the parties it excluded. The Libertarians, SA Socialists, and Australian Citizens Party were not avaliable to be chosen for this poll. As such, those parties may very well shift the balance. The Libertarians will likely not poll higher than 1%, two Family Parties and One Nation will likely keep their vote down, while the ACP will get a result at the bottom of the election (but maybe in front of Jing Lee). Really, the Socialists are the most interesting, in that a good campaign from them may see them taking votes off the Greens in a space that isn't really contested.
LOWER HOUSE
