Well, the 2025 Federal Election is done (voting is still ongoing though), and I will be real, I did not expect the result to be so drastically in Labor's favor. I'll talk more about that below, but I think that is the headline this election. The majority Labor holds is historic, both in terms of 2pp votes and in the seats they now hold, and on the other hand the Liberals are in an absolutely dishevelled state. In addition, more Australians than ever, once again, have voted for minor parties and independents, and the crossbench is one of the largest in history. I was expecting election night to have been a long one, prepared for close results that would decide the election to be going into midnight, but was stunned to be laughing with mates about Dutton losing Dickson by 9pm. Now, there is still plenty of vote counting to be done, so I will not be as certain as I like in some of my thoughts, but nonetheless, I think I have let the dust settle enough to bring you this review.
General Thoughts
I mean, what is there to say that isn't obvious here? The Labor party, under a steady but not incredibly ambitious Albanese, has managed to achieve a result better than any Labor party since World War Two. If that isn't a complete refutation of the muddled lack of vision that Peter Dutton and the Liberal Party were bringing to the table, I don't know what else is. Labor won seats where most people would never had even predicted it had the chance, while the Liberals have been relegated to the regional areas of states and Queensland. Labor is looking likely to reach near-on 90 seats, the Liberals look like they'll be struggling for more than the low-40s, and meanwhile Teal Independents have held and made gains while the Greens have floundered.
I should say that this election result shouldn't have been overly surprising. Yes, the polls were off once again, giving too little to Labor except for a YouGov MRP and Roy Morgan poll which managed to be on the money, but I don't think that are to blame for the surprise most felt. Rather, the spectre of 2019, that the polls were overestimating Labor, remained a major part of predictions and analysis throughout the campaign period. People thought Labor would do worse, because, quite frankly, no one believed that a win on this scale was even possible in this day and age. The result is surprising to us all, but only because of the spectres which remained over the last two elections.
Where does this leave parliament now? Well, Labor, with its large majority and seemingly only needing the Greens or Coalition to help pass bills in the Senate, has room to do what it pleases. Ignoring a major fracturing of the Labor caucus, Albanese and his government have near-free rein to not only undertake the policies and platform they wish, but to be successful in seeing them all through as well. The ambition of their policies can only be limited by themselves now, no longer can they blame other parties or the media, or being a first-term government.
For most others, this election result will lead to many wounds needing to be licked. While no party (bar maybe one) was destroyed this election, no party besides Labor will be approaching the line to happiness with this result. Post-mortems will be had, strategies analysed and reconsidered, and in the end we'll do it all again in 2028. Only time will tell though whether parties like the Liberals or Greens will have learnt their lessons by that point, and whether they, especially the Liberals, can escape the wilderness.
Party by Party Thoughts
Animal Justice Party
What I predicted: The Animal Justice Party is in a good place right now. They've been growing slowly but surely over the last decade, and now have an MLC in NSW, Victoria, and WA, while also gaining at every federal election. While I don't think they won't see major growth at this election, they represent a niche rather than a specific side of politics, it is not impossible that they break past 2% of the national vote (in the senate) this time round. They won't win any seats, but they'll keep going up.
My Review: The election was not the one for AJP. Seemingly surging in the states, it looked likely they'd only see that surge continue at the federal election. Not so. The party has either seen stagnation or loss in every state bar WA when it comes to the senate, with its biggest loss being in NSW, where its vote share fell nearly an entire percentage point. This should be seen as a major failure for the party, in an election where other minor parties were gaining votes left, right, and centre, they had one of the largest falls (in NSW their loss of vote share was only beaten by the Liberals). Their gaining votes in WA may be seen as a silver lining, but it was only 0.23% of the vote share gained, and is rather small when you consider the population differences between NSW and WA.
Not much can be said explicitly about their efforts in the House of Representatives, having 18 candidates this time round compared to 48 in 2022 means any effort to compare votes on a national scale is nonsensical. But looking at places where the same candidates were running in both elections, such as Victoria Davies in Hunter or Matt Pastro in Hindmarsh, is telling. Pastro, in Hindmarsh, received nearly 0.8% less votes than his previous time around, a major failing cutting him from above 2% of the vote to just 1.3% now. Davies isn't much better, having lost 0.7% of the vote in Hunter and being cut down to the same vote share as Pastro. So, on a seat-by-seat basis, it seems that the AJP also lost votes in the House.
All of this is to say that, while it isn't an outright rejection of AJP's policy platform, it is a sign that the party needs to restrategize. Perhaps they are a party better suited to state elections, more able to get their platform out in the smaller campaigns of those elections. Maybe they keep trying at federal elections, but another failure like this one would essentially leave the party in the grave federally. At the very least, they can take solace in the fact that, despite having fewer candidates and doing worse, they still polled better than multiple other parties.
Australian Christians
What I predicted: A surprise winner in WA's state election, I am not certain that success will translate nationally. Besides the fact they're only running in WA, and having a small go at NSW's senate, which will obviously limit any success, they're competing with a surplus of active right-wing parties. If we're looking at WA specifically, they may hit closer to 3%, but even if this gets them near the quota, its more likely that the final/6th seat goes to One Nation or Legalise Cannabis. They'll see growth, but not enough to gain anything concrete.
My Review: The Australian Christians will certainly be quite happy with their results this election. Unlike my prediction for the AJP, this one was essentially spot on. In Western Australia, the party is now on the cusp of hitting 3% of the vote share for the Senate, putting them below only the Nationals, Legalise Cannabis, and One Nation before they would be hitting the 6th quota position. As all three of those are national parties, the Australian Christians becoming their equals would be big for the party. The same can be said for the lower house results, as they are now also on the cusp of hitting 2% of the vote in Western Australia. While it doesn't mean they're close to getting a seat, it does mean that sustained effort might let them do so in coming elections.
Their 'small go' in NSW ended up being quite the success. Gaining 1.2% of the vote share, they're properly competing with other right-wing parties such as Family First, Trumpet of Patriots, and the Libertarian/HEART/People First group ticket. While it is hard to say whether they'll see the same success in NSW again, it is probably a win the party will take.
Overall, the Australian Christians seem like they may become a staple party of Western Australia in the next few elections. While I am not sure if they'll get a senate seat at any point in the foreseeable future, they may soon be challenging One Nation and the Nationals to be the main, non-Liberal, right-wing party in the state.
Australian Citizens Party
What I predicted: The party's attempts at obscuring its past (and current) ideology may help it in some ways, as there is only so much people like myself can do to combat that, and I know that some people in my life who should've known better were drawn in by the allure of some of their policies. I don't think they'll gain much from it, and since they are one of the most obscure parties in this election, it isn't likely they'll see major growth. ACP will probably sit between .10% - .30% of the national vote.
My Review: Another one spot on. The ACP got 0.1% of the vote overall in the lower house, and while this may not seem impressive initially, I assume they'll be taking it as a success. This is despite the fact that they were running over double the candidates in the lower house, which, of course, would naturally make their vote count increase, but I assume they'll still be celebrating. They didn't do better in the Senate though. They essentially stagnated in every state, seeing only small increases in WA and a modest increase in Tasmania to about 0.4% of the state's senate vote.
All of this is to say that the ACP remains an incredibly fringe party. They'll keep trying, I'm certain, but it is difficult to know which will come first; their inevitable deregistration due to a lack of members or them voluntarily giving up. I suspect we'll see them again in 2028, but beyond that, LaRouchism just isn't an ideology that has the legs to survive for long.
Australian Democrats
What I predicted: The Democrats exist in such a weird place that it is difficult to predict where they'll go next. They've been, very slowly, increasing their vote share from 2016 when they were deregistered, but who knows where their limit will be. Some on the Centre-Left might see them as an opportunity to vote for something that isn't Labor or the Greens first, so its possible they still gain some votes this election. Expect a maximum of 0.5% nation-wide from the Democrats, and not a cent more.
My Review: The Democrats are in the same place as they were at the start of the election. Their single lower house candidate got about the same amount of votes as they did in the 2022 election, and so is barely worth noticing (respect to them for running, even if its abit of a non-factor). Senate-wise, they are looking at 1 step forward, 1 step back. In Victoria, they lost nearly 0.3% of their vote share, taking them back to 0.5% in the state. Meanwhile, they saw minor gains in WA and Queensland. The loss in Victoria will probably sting more than the salve that the gains will provide, in any case.
So where do the Democrats go from here? Well, if they can keep up their membership numbers, likely to a continual stagnating vote share, as without something major they are somewhat thing a of the past. But their big issue will be keeping their membership high enough. Voters don't equally equate into members, and while for such a minor party the ratio may be somewhat close, it still will be tight when the AEC comes calling next. I suspect they'll survive into 2028, but without a boost there its hard to know what is next.
Australian Greens
What I predicted: Well, here's probably the hardest prediction I'll have to make on this review. Where will the Greens end up? Senate-wise, I think balance of power is easily secured for them, though I don't think they'll see their senate seats increase this election. The House is where things get very spicy though. It seems likely that the Greens will lose atleast a couple of there seats there. And I can't disagree, it is almost certain they'll lose atleast one seat in Queensland. However, I also think they may gain a seat or two, either in Victoria, or, and this is my dark horse prediction, in the electorate of Sturt in SA. Also, expect them to end up above 13% of the vote, and don't be shocked if they hit 14%.
My Review: This was nowhere near the election that the Greens wished it was. The party's lower house representation is looking to be cut down to a single seat at most, as Ryan remains the only place in which their polling has held up. With both other Brisbane seats gone, and Melbourne going Labor's way, the party now has to look at what happened to lead them to this place. And despite calls on the night that things weren't so bad, as the Greens' vote share had increased nationally, its now the case that it has actually backslid to see them lose 0.5%.
So, what is there for the Greens to do? Well, this shouldn't be seen as a nightmare scenario or the apocalypse. They lost seats and votes in what was a Labor surge, and so they can take solace in that at least some of the losses weren't in their control. However, some were. Labor, and Albanese in particular, has attempted to portray the Greens' losses as down to them running a grievance platform. Ignoring the fact that this is the type of campaign they ran in 2022 (and somewhat this time round too), I don't think that really holds water. Rather, the big failing of the Greens campaign, in my opinion, is a lack of local policies. For a party with a strong grassroots core, it gained a sort of tunnelvision for federal-level policies. Now, I'm not saying throw those away, the Greens have perfected them to the point where they essentially hold the balance of power in the Senate for the foreseeable future. But, they do need to modify. Local policies help win seats, and if the Greens want to transition from perennial balance of power holders in the vein of the Democrats, to a party which can contest the election in the House, they'll need policies which win seats, not just broad votes. And there are plenty of local policies around the country they could implement which would align with their overall platform, so it isn't really an issue of ideology. In my opinion, if the Greens don't transition their campaign strategy into the next election, they won't lose anything but they certainly won't gain much.
Now, this is not to say all is bad. The Greens are pretty much certain to keep all of their seats in the Senate (as I predicted). This is a strong point for them, and will ensure they're kept in the national conversation across the next three years. They'll need to rebuild from this area though, which won't be the easiest. But there are ways forward, especially when you consider that in SA and Tasmania, they increased their Senate vote share by 2.4% and 1.3% respectively. With both those states essentially now Labor strongholds, the Greens should see them as perfect bases of opportunity to expand.
Australian Labor Party
What I predicted: (On Bluesky) That they'd win ~76 seats and maybe increase their vote slightly
My Review: Well, who expected that? Labor is on track to its best election since World War Two (as I mentioned previously). It has more seats in both houses, and has seen its vote share surge upwards in every state. On the numbers-side of things, there really isn't much to talk about. Labor won, and they won hard.
What about their campaign though? Well, they also won that. It turns out that Albanese wakes up for 5 weeks every 3 years to absolutely demolish the Liberals, only to return to a state of hibernation during the next 3 years. Okay, maybe that is hyperbolic, but once again, Albanese campaigning seems like such a different person to the guy in parliament. He ran a tight ship, rarely gaffed, and took every chance to destroy Dutton, getting to the point where he essentially told Dutton, in jest, to 'get f*cked, f*ck off' (implying it via the Angel's song, Am I Ever Going to See your Face Again?) without a single shred of backlash. Watching Albanese on the last couple days of the campaign was to watch a man unleashed. The Labor party was much the same. Their policies were, while not the most ambitious, neat, tidy, and without any clear weaknesses. They beat the Liberals on cost of living, energy, environment, and more, and even managed to outdo them on taxes. This review is short because, practically, there is little to criticise about Labor's campaign. Could they be more ambitious? Certainly, and would hope they will be considering the majority they now have. But beyond that, its hard to point out issues when their opponent also ran one of the worst campaigns of the century.
Australia's Voice
What I predicted: With the relative dearth of left-wing parties compared to 2022, and, anecdotally, the fact that some socialists in states without socialist parties feel better served by Voice than the Greens (a combination of Payman's increased focus on Palestine and a dislike of the Greens taking on a military policy) it is possible that Australia's Voice sees some success. And by that, I mean not the lows that parties like TNL saw in 2022. Expect around 0.3% of the national vote going towards these guys, maybe closer to 0.5% if they get lucky.
My Review: Here's a party that I vastly underestimated. The new 'kid' on the block when it comes to left-leaning parties, Australia's Voice was a party I believed would do okay, but not spectacular. And while they didn't blow the roof off of any states, they have certainly set themselves up quite well for success going into the next election.
Looking at their results, the party hit 0.8-0.9% of the vote in NSW, Queensland, SA, and WA. For a new party, with far less media attention than others, that is a rather good result for their first election. The news gets even better when you look at Victoria, where the party received 1.1% of the vote. To jump to over 1% of the vote in a party's first election is a very difficult task, and AV having done it means that they may have a decent shot in Victoria in the next election. Now, they will be facing difficulties there. Victoria still has a rather strong Greens vote (sitting at 14%), and AV will also be competing for votes against Victorian Socialists (who also did rather well this election), so its not like the state is an instant-win for them. But these results are good, and with proper effort (and more policies), AV could be in a very good place in three years time.
FUSION | Planet Rescue | Whistleblower Protection | Innovation
What I Predicted: FUSION's luck could go one of two ways. Either, it's compromise strategy could get it voters from a wide umbrella, increasing its voterbase and knowledge of the party, or it could alienate 'core' members while failing to entice those on the right. While I can't be certain which it is (I lean to the latter), what I do know from experience is that FUSION did best when it had volunteers at booths. If FUSION's changes alienate active volunteers, this could be a large wound for the party. All of that being said, I expect stagnation in regards to the party's vote share, taking 0.20%-0.40% in the senate and maybe 0.10% in the House.
My Review: Stagnation is perhaps the best word to describe FUSION's results at this election. Despite an alliance designed to reach across the aisle, votes have not increased in the manner in which a compromise may suggest they would. And for a minor party, stagnation is perhaps the most dangerous thing, as decline can motivate members to push back.
Perhaps most disappointing would be their results in the lower house. Despite having 4 more candidates running for seats (13 vs 9 in 2022), the party's overall national result is the exact same as it was in 2022. Now, while it isn't a disaster, it does suggest that FUSION is failing to either get it's name and policies out there, which is a fixable issue, or that voters don't really care for their name and policies, which is far more difficult to fix. After 2 elections, one would start to lean towards the latter case, but there is a chance it remains the former. In any case, running more candidates should get you more votes, naturally, so the lack of progress there is worrying. A simple search to do see how their candidate in Adelaide did, who ran both in 2022 and 2025, demonstrates this. That candidate received 0.26% less votes than in 2022, and was the only minor party to go backwards (the Liberals and Greens also did). As such, the lack of progress in the national results must be worrying, because stagnation with increased candidates only means those increased candidates are hiding the worse results elsewhere.
The story isn't good in the Senate either. Normally, a place where a minor party can find solace, even with a poor lower house result, this has not been the case for FUSION. Once again, they've stagnated in these results, seeing no gains (actually, minor losses), in every state they ran in bar South Australia. Their SA vote is perhaps their only silver lining, as the party actually gained 0.2% of the vote to increase to 0.5% in the state. Why this is, is hard to say, but I do assume it is down to the quality of their president, who was their 2nd candidate in the state and quite active in promoting his party. But that is only a small silver lining, the lack of results elsewhere is not great. And while I don't think FUSION will be disappearing before the 2028 election, it does seem like the party is in sink or swim territory.
Family First Party Australia
What I predicted: Trying to predict where Family First will end up is difficult. They weren't around in the last two elections, and politics has somewhat moved past them. Despite this though, their name is known, and the values they represent are supported by some in our society. Looking at the field they're contending with, they'll probably slot into a comfortable spot for a revived party. Nothing above 1%, but also not completely forgotten. Expect something below 0.5% nationally, but don't be shocked if it is abit higher.
My Review: Turns out I got this one very wrong. Politics has not, apparently, moved past Family First. That is frustrating when you consider who runs the party and their values, but alas, I've already thrown enough venom at the party and Lyle Shelton in my initial post on the minor parties of the election. Their success may suggest that there is room for culture-war politics tinged in religious conservatism, but on the edges of the right-wing.
Looking at both their Senate and House results, Family First did rather well. They gained a national vote of 1.7% for the lower house, having them be competitive with parties far more discussed in the media like Trumpet of Patriots and Legalise Cannabis. In the Senate they gained anywhere from 1.7% (in NSW) to over 2% in Queensland and South Australia. While that is an interesting result considering the fact that Shelton was their NSW candidate, and so him getting the worst result is quite ironic, it does mean that they have bases for growth in every state they ran. Particularly in SA, where their name has held value over the last decades, and Queensland, where the right-wing vote is higher, the party could come to eclipse all on the right besides One Nation and the Liberals, demonstrating themselves as an alternative on that side of politics. Its hard to say because the party has a history of infighting and fractures, so it is possible that by next election it has split, but if it manages to keep itself together don't be shocked if it only continues to go upwards.
Gerard Rennick People First
Whate I predicted: Rennick's put a lot of work into this party, and the party itself seems to have dedication throughout it, however, I don't see where Rennick can really look to gain seats. The Liberal party isn't dead yet, nowhere near it, and One Nation is the party gaining the most from those on the Right who find the LNP to no longer represent them. Even in terms of Trumpian politics, the Trumpet of Patriots has the name brand and money behind it to outdo People First. Expect People First than to end up in a similar place like the many left-wing minor parties last election, with less than 0.30% of the overall vote. No seats are to be had here, and even Rennick will be in for the fight of his life (I suspect a fight which he is likely to lose).
My Review: People First is in a very interesting place right now. It has seen success, far beyond what I expected, in the places it ran. But at the same time, its entire reason for existing, the Gerard Rennick in the People First, may be one of this election's biggest failures.
Firstly, in the national vote for the House, People First has reached around 0.5% for the total votes. While this is better than I expected, it is still quite low for a party with as many candidates as it had. Polling lower than Family First and the Libertarians is not a good place to be when there were so many parties fighting for the right in this election.
Its a completely different story when you look at the Senate. Having utilised joint tickets with Libertarians and Heart to their advantage, the party saw some major successes. These include 2% of the vote in NSW, 1.2% of the vote in Victoria, and similar vote shares in WA and SA. Not the best votes, and very much predicated on the joint tickets they shared, but still a success for a new party. However, I will say that essentially none of this actually matters, because this party was just a vehicle designed to do one thing, keep Gerard Rennick in parliament.
When you first look at the Queensland Senate results, you'd believe that it did that job well. People First are floating just under 5% of the vote, trailing the majors, Greens, and One Nation. However, in this case, it just isn't enough. Rennick's only competition, the one thing he had to beat this election, was One Nation and specifically Malcolm Roberts. And yet, he trailed by 2%. While there is still much to be counted, it is hard to see his path to victory unless preferences really fall his way. I don't think Rennick will accept defeat until the final whistle is called, but his loss will likely signal the end of this party, as Rennick will probably jump to another, more established minor party should he continue to exist in the political realm. In the end, it'll come down to the fight between Rennick and Roberts, which only makes sense if you've seen the 6News Queensland Minor Party Debate.
HEART (Health, Environment, Accountability, Rights and Transparency) Party
What I predicted: I want to predict that these guys will get 0 votes, but considering the fact that RFK Jr. sits in the white house as I write this post, that is obviously not going to happen. They got 0.3% in the senate last time, and I suspect that they might get similar this time, though with the Pandemic not on as many people's minds these days it is also likely they'll end up with less votes.
My Review: Trying to analyse these guys is pretty much impossible, as every Senate spot they ran for was in a joint ticket. They go from 1.2% of the vote in Victoria alongside People First, to 0.2% of the vote in Queensland alongside the Great Australian Party. Based on People First's other successes, though, and GAP's failures, I do think reaching the conclusion that they did not do well isn't unreasonable. Furthermore, it is also difficult to ascertain how much worse or better they did in the lower house, as they went from over a dozen candidates in 2022 to 3 this election. And with not a single candidate running in both of those elections, there's no real comparison to make either. In the end, the downgrade of candidates and the need for a joint ticket suggests one thing, that the party is declining.
Indigenous-Aboriginal Party of Australia
What I predicted: It is quite tough to predict how these guys will go. They're pushing for a niche beyond the regularly left and right fight that you see in Australia's elections, and so it'll be up to them to get their name out to that niche and show that they are the best option for them. That being said, they did receive nearly 0.5% of the vote last election, so don't be shocked if they end in a similar place this time round.
My Review: It's always difficult to exactly analyse how a niche party like the IAPA is doing, as it requires you to consider them amongst their niche, not more broadly. That being said, the IAPA did quite well this election. Their lower house votes are stable, but that is recognising that they were one of the least voted for parties this election, so its not really a success. The part they did well in was the Senate. While they did lose 0.15% of their vote in NSW, dropping them to 0.7% overall, they also reached 0.7% of the vote in Victoria and 1.5% of the vote in Queensland on their first time running. That Queensland vote is perhaps the most interesting thing, and suggests that they may find long-term success in the state if they focus there. Specifically, I could see the party transitioning well to state elections in Queensland, and becoming a relevant political force in the state over time. It would require effort, and revamping their policies to be more substantial, but it could be possible.
Jacqui Lambie Network
What I predicted: Beyond Jacqui probably retaining her seat at this election, it is unlikely that the other candidates will see much success. That is, of course, excluding Rex Patrick, who I've seen personally win over crowds he has no right in winning over. While I don't think he's a shoe-in, his name brand, prior experience, and enthusiasm give him the potential to be a big underdog for the 6th senate seat in South Australia. It's too fine to say whether he'll make it or not, but expect him and One Nation to be in a big fight over the seat this election.
My Review: The JLN is likely dead as a brand past this election. Jacqui's tried everything with it, and besides some temporary success in Tasmania, has continually come up short. In NSW the party got less than 1% of the vote in the Senate, which I'd normally call a success for a party contesting the state for the first time, but for an established brand like JLN it's disappointing. Its a similar story in Queensland, where the party only got 1.5% of the vote.
The two main focuses for the party this election were SA and Tasmania, and neither is particularly good news for them either. In South Australia, Rex Patrick, who I stated might be able to take the 6th Senate seat, has failed to get even close. Polling at 2.6%, he lands underneath Trumpet of Patriots, Legalise Cannabis, and One Nation in what must be a disappointment for the time and effort he spent in the state. Tasmania is also a poor showing. While Lambie herself seems likely to get the last Senate seat there by the skin of her teeth, fighting off both One Nation and Labor, it is still very close and very possible she'll fall short. Even if she wins, a swing of 1.5% away from her is massive, and suggests that her brand is failing. Should she survive this, she might be tempted to try the JLN nationally again, seeing as she has the one election buffer for her own seat, but I doubt it'd be anymore successful. The JLN, to be truthful, is really just a lesser sibling of the Teals now.
Katter's Australian Party
What I predicted: This is probably the easiest call I will make in my life. Bob Katter will win his seat, every other KAP candidate will lose. Not much more to say, honestly.
My Review: I was talking to a bunch of friends on election night, and one of the first things that popped up on the ABC's site was Kennedy, Bob Katter's seat. I joked, why don't the AEC just immediately assume that Katter has won the seat and save the resources? Now, obviously that is just a joke, but the reality is that Katter is a permanent fixture there, until he retires or dies. Beyond him though, the party didn't do great. Losing 0.2% of its lower house vote in Queensland strings but isn't the end of the world, even if People First and Family First did end up surpassing it. In the Senate though, it has no chance of being elected, as its joint ticket with Rennick means it is supporting his bid to win, which looks ever less likely by the hour. So in the end, its one step back for the KAP, but I doubt Katter particularly cares. The party, much like People First, is a vehicle for his name and keeping him as a relevant political force when the election season isn't on. Beyond that, how it does is barely of relevance.
Legalise Cannabis Australia
What I predicted: Legalise Cannabis has been growing around the country, as it becomes quite clear that Australians want the plant to be either legal or decriminalised. Last election, they received over 3.3% of the vote, and I don't see that going down any time soon. Their goal, alongside their name, mean they will get votes, and be shocked to see that number jump past 4%. 5% is abit of a stretch, but in the senate it is anyone's game.
My Review: Legalise Cannabis continues to be a growing political movement. On the long and short of it, that should already tell you a lot. There is a significant amount of want for cannabis legalisation in Australia, and if I had to guess, it'll happen sooner rather than later. When it does, the spread of votes from LCan will be very interesting to see.
Taking on their first proper lower house venture, one has to be somewhat impressed with their gain of 1.1% of the national vote. While it won't win them any seats any time soon, it will start to mean that lower house seats are won and lost on their preferences, and that is an incredibly strong incentive in pushing their agenda. Parties win government through the lower house, so strategic candidates could become keys to being kingmakers for the majors.
In the Senate, the news is even better. In most states, the party increased their vote, polling anywhere from 3% to nearly 5% in SA, WA, NSW, and Victoria. The only losses they saw were a minor one in Tasmania, and a drop of 1.5% in Queensland, which is rather significant. However, both drops still keep them in that 3-5% bracket, which is just below what parties tend to need to start aiming for a quota. And since that is happening in every state, it means that this election, Legalise Cannabis was only a swing of a couple percent to gaining a senator in every state. Now, do I think such a swing is plausible next election? Not entirely, but I also am not sure Legalise Cannabis will be around next election. There's a lot of pressure on its one topic, and eventually the majors will have to respond to it.
Liberal Party of Australia
What I predicted: (On Bluesky) 39 seats by themselves, not as a coalition (54 as a coalition).
My Review: Well, this is not the result that Dutton and the Liberal party would have wanted. I could talk for a long time about the state of their party in parliament, about their seats, and what not, but I'll leave that for the news sites. One thing I will note is that the Liberal vote in the Senate is down anywhere from 6% to 9% of the vote share in most states, only seeing an increase in NT and only a slight decrease of 3% in Victoria. That, in no uncertain terms, is not good at all.
What I want to focus on is what this result means for the Liberals. Lets be clear, unless they see a miracle occur, there is essentially 0 chance they form government at the 2028 election. Maybe its possible at 2031, but I'm skeptical that they'll fix their issues by that point. What are their issues? Well, ignoring the absolutely atrocious campaign that Dutton ran, there's two key issues. Firstly, the party is missing talent. Liberals and liberal-aligned media have been saying it since the election night, but there is no one in the party who screams out as being a leader. Not the leader who will get them out of this situation, but a leader in general. As bad as he was, Dutton at least felt like the Liberals' leader when he took over, even if he was the clear second choice to Frydenberg.
But that issue is leagues below how important their second one is. That being, the Liberal Party doesn't have a base anymore. It is uncertain about whether it wanted to be the centre-right party which focused on economics and defence, or if it wanted to be the right-wing party which focused on the culture war. And in its wavering, it bled votes from both sides. This isn't an easy issue to fix either, as the party is now bookended on both sides by other parties. In the centre the party has ceded ground to both the Teals and Labor, while on the right One Nation, Family First, and a cacophony of other right-wing voices hold that ground. Its also not like the party really has the core to fix these issues. Pushed completely out of Tasmania, Adelaide, Perth and most of Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, the party lacks an urban core that most voters would be able to identify with. Instead, it is now a party of the regions, and of Queensland. That means its biggest decision makers may be out of touch with what most of Australia wants, and trying to get those voices back in will be a difficult task indeed.
So, where does the Liberal party go from here? In my opinion, its got two choices. Firstly, moderate itself and attempt to merge back together with the Teals. This won't be easy, considering the above issues I mentioned, and may not be the task most of the Liberals prefer. But in my opinion it is the most sensible option, attempting to win back the centre from Labor. The other option is of course continue right, and attempt to merge with One Nation and its ilk. This will certainly bring in primary votes, but I think it'll cause even more people to preference Labor above Liberal, and would be a losing strategy. Considering that people like Gina Rinehart think its the right option though, the Liberals may just try it. Of course, there is a secret third option. The party could do neither, and try to stay the course. I think such an option is a mistake, and would lead to many more years in the wilderness. I also think it'd make it so that the next right-leaning party to enter government wouldn't be called the Liberals any longer. It'd be a reformed party, similar to the UAP/Nationalists/Menzies Liberals of the mid-1900s.
Libertarian Party
What I predicted: Now, despite doing terribly last election in the lower house, the Liberal Democrats actually polled well in the sentate, earning around 2.2% of the vote. This time around, they are fighting a more fractured and prominent right-wing scene, so they may struggle. They are also missing the crutch of the Pandemic, which helped propel them. All of this being considered, I think its likely that they dip below 2% this election, though someone like Craig Kelly might do well in their state.
My Review: Another party whose drop in candidates makes it difficult to understand their numbers. The Libertarians went from 99 lower house candidates in 2022 to 47 or so in 2025, making the drop on their national vote of 1.2% hard to see as anything but a drop in candidate numbers. To be fair, it is also a drop of over 2/3rds of their initial vote, which would suggest more than just a lack of candidates. A quick check of Lalor, one of the few seats where a candidate for the party crosses over the two elections (Patrizia Barcatta), tells the story. There, the party lost 2.6% of the vote share, going from nearly 4% to just above 1% this election. That is highly telling, and suggests that the party not only lost candidates, but lost voters.
Senate results aren't much better for them. Ignoring their joint tickets in places like NSW (which are dismal anyways, 2% of the vote from a 3 party joint ticket!), the party did not do well. In Victoria, they only received 0.6% of the vote, in Queensland 0.5% of the vote, WA 0.7%, and Tasmania 0.5% as well. Its only in SA where they managed to breach the 1% line, just. Considering that in 2022 the Liberal Democrats, the name the Libertarians went by in that election, got 2.26% of the Senate vote nationwide, these results are actually incredibly dismal. Furthermore, when one considers the effort and energy put into the Libertarian campaign, I swear they were one of the most well-known right-wing parties besides the LNP, One Nation, and Trumpet of Patriots, the result seems even worse. One has to wonder where the Libertarians go from here.
National Party of Australia
What I predicted: (On Bluesky) That they would hit 15 seats in the lower house
My Review: The National Party remains the only solid component of the coalition. With 9 seats of their own, plus a few in the Queensland LNP, the party seems undamaged by the swing against the Liberals. This does make sense, considering the parties performances in state election blowouts for the Liberals. Their regional focus, something both major parties aren't well-known for, insulates them from the worst excesses of national swings.
What does this mean for the party now? Well, multiple politicians for the party have suggested that they want a bigger piece of the coalition pie considering the balance of results. Such a change up is likely, but may also be a negative for the Liberal party as they end up being brought more to the Right due to the Nationals. More interesting is that multiple politicians for the party have brought up the idea of splitting the coalition. While all have said it wouldn't occur, the fact that it is being mentioned suggests that the idea is being floated in some capacity in the party room. I doubt a split will occur now, but should things only get worse for the coalition, it is hard to say where things may lead.
Pauline Hanson's One Nation
What I predicted: One Nation is in an incredible spot right now, as the party on the Right with the most clearly-defined base. This is being reflected in the polls, which have seen One Nation's share rise all the way into the double digits at times. Should such polls be replicated on Election Day, One Nation would end up with its best results in its lifetime. Does this mean One Nation will win any seats? Well, I suspect that One Nation will be in the running for multiple senate seats, with states like Queensland and South Australia being their most likely places to win. Expect the party to end up with 2-3 Senate seats once counting is done, and maybe up to 5 depending on how other states do. And while I don't think they'll win anything in the House of Representatives, I do think its more than likely that they will end up in the 2PP race for atleast one seat. In the end, looking for a total vote share of just under 10%, I don't think they'll hit double digits just yet.
My Review: Poor old Pauline (not really, but you know). If there was anyone the polls did dirtier, I do not know. The swing that they suggested would manifest on election day did not appear, and the seats they were seemingly destined to gain did not arrive. Now, it isn't all bad. The party did see a swing of 1.3% nationally to them. But, lets be real, One Nation wasn't just meant to get more votes this election, it was meant to get seats, especially in the Senate.
The Senate result is perhaps demonstrative of the majority of Australians' rejection of Pauline Hanson's message. In a pre-election context, most analysts suggested that One Nation would be competitive for a seat in every state, and would likely pick up atleast a couple of those seats. What actually happened was far from that. While One Nation did demonstrate itself to be the number four party in nearly every state, it never actually got close enough quota-wise to pick up seats after election night went past. In NSW, Victoria, WA, SA, NT, and Tasmania, One Nation failed to pick up the 6th seat, and have become uncompetitive in most of those states. The only place they did gain a seat was in Queensland, with Malcolm Roberts very likely to be re-elected, but even than his seat hasn't be confirmed yet and votes for the party are down half a percent.
All of this, the bad result in the Senate and the lack of growth in the lower house should be a warning call for One Nation. Even with the Liberals significant decline, they were not rewarded on the rebound. Voters instead moved to Labor or the Teal Independents, and those on the right who've fled the Liberals seemed just as likely to pick Family First, for instance, than One Nation. So where does this leave the party? Well, with rumours that Pauline is looking to retire, and their only other senator the same age as her, it seems like the party is in a really bad place. I suspect Pauline wanted this election to provide successors to carry on the party past her retirement (if it is occurring), and was hoping either her daughter in Tasmania, or the mother/daughter duo of the Games in SA would be voted in. It was not to be though, and so, while I think Pauline may not retire just yet, it is hard to see where her party can go from here. If it can't capitalise off the Liberals losses next election, perhaps the party has hit its ceiling.
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party
What I predicted: These guys are relics of a conservatism that time has somewhat passed by, in this current moment. They are and will continue to be swamped by newer parties, and simply won't be able to retain votes over time. They probably dip below 0.5% of the vote share for the senate this election, and into the next period, I think they'll have to have a serious conversation about their party's future.
My Review: Not dead just yet. That is about the best I can say for the SFF. Despite the increase in right-wing parties, and more modern right-wing parties, the SFF was not completely blown out of the water. Now, that isn't to say they did well. There are multiple failings that suggest that the party's brand is not a thriving one, and if the SFF had a proactive leadership, they'd be signs of needing to change, to move forward. But I doubt they do, and I doubt they will.
One of the clearest identifiers that things are going poorly is in the lower house. There, the SFF has managed to retain the same vote share as it had in 2022, something that would seem only slightly negative for them. However, a quick look presents the reality that SFF is in a worse spot with this than a surface-level peek suggests. In 2022, the SFF put up 4 candidates for the lower house, in 2025 that increased to 7. If you've read the rest of this review, you'll know why this is a bad thing. Now, there's no crossover candidates so I cannot analyse any deeper, but its clear to see that the party's fortunes are on a downwards trend.
Things aren't much better in the Senate for the SFF either. They've seen a 0.12% decline in their vote share in Victoria (a 10% drop overall), and while they've seen an increase of 0.3% in Tasmania, the reality is that it isn't enough of an increase to help the party overall. Looking at all of this, it seems that unless the SFF modernises and finds some appeal for younger conservatives, it is destined to only die a slow but sure death.
Socialist Alliance
What I predicted: Socialist Alliance won't be winning any seats (if they were close we'd be in a new red scare). However, I do think many on the left are disillusioned with Labor and even the Greens in some places. Socialist Alliance, therefore, only stands to gain from those on the far-left who cannot find a home in the more mainstream parties. I don't think such a left-wing flight will be massive, but possibly enough to get Socialist Alliance 0.3-0.4% of the vote share.
My Review: Socialist Alliance is one of the mixed bags of this election. While they didn't see as many gains as I said they would, they also didn't falter in most regards. The party probably wishes their increases were bigger and any losses smaller, but that'd only come with a more national campaign, in my opinion, and I don't see that occurring from the Socialist Alliance side of the socialist parties for a while.
Their Senate outcomes are perhaps the most interesting thing here. They saw increases of 0.1% in both NSW and WA, which is a decent increase considering their overall vote shares in 2022 for both states was just 0.2%. Queensland, on the other hand, will probably be considered a major success for them. There, they've increased their vote share by 0.3% to increase to 0.6% overall. Increasing their votes by double is significant, and if I had to analyse why this happened in Queensland of all places, it was probably Greens voters moving even further left in an election that saw many Greens voters in Queensland to move to other parties.
There isn't much to talk about in the lower house here. The party remained stagnant in their overall vote, and since their candidate numbers remained essentially the same (5 in 2022 to 6 in 2025). The increase in candidates isn't enough to suggest that the stagnation of votes is a bad thing, but it does demonstrate that more work would need to be done in their lower house races to change the trend to a positive. Overall, things aren't terrible for Socialist Alliance, but more effort will be needed next election if they don't want to be left behind.
Sustainable Australia Party - Universal Basic Income
What I predicted: 2022 saw SusAus end up with just over half a percent of the vote share in the Senate, up only 0.1% from the year prior. This time round, I can't really see why they would increase much. They shouldn't appeal to many on the left, though some who like social democratic style policies but who are also anti-immigration might find their place there. Furthermore, I can't see them appealing to the right, as their policy list besides their anti-immigration stuff is simply too left-leaning. I suspect that SusAus will stagnate at this election, remaining at 0.5% of the vote at most.
My Review: Another mixed bag, though this one is weighted mostly to the negative. Sustainable Australia is a party which appeared to have some momentum in the last election, and in this one I suspected that stagnation was the way they'd go due to their voters working out the true ideology behind the party. Whether that is why they got the results they got, I can't say, but it is clear that in the states atleast, the party is suffering.
The Senate is such an interesting bag of results for the party. In NSW and Victoria, the party saw its results fall by 0.2% overall, while in Queensland they saw a disastrous fall of 0.4% overall, sending them to near the bottom of the results. Meanwhile, in WA and SA the party stagnated, seeing incredibly minor increases and decreases to their vote shares. Tasmania is the only success story they have in the states, increasing their vote share there by 0.2%. However, the biggest story is in the territories, where they were one of the only minor parties to run. In the ACT, they increased their vote share by nearly 0.6% to hit 1.1% overall, and in the NT they increased by 2.2% to reach a vote share of 3.9% overall. These would be excellent results, and something the party would be celebrating, if it weren't for the reality of territory senate elections. They only get two senators who get elected every election, and so the near 4% of the vote that SusAus got in the NT which would normally be enough to have them contending for a quota spot next election, is nowhere near enough. Labor and the CLP only got past 1 quota each by getting 34% of the votes. So, for SusAus, these territory votes may be a success, but they'll never truly lead anywhere (unless Senate reform occurs).
There's nothing to talk about lower house-wise, since the party ran no candidates there. These results are, overall, not terrible, but suggest that the party is failing to engage with state voters. Perhaps they could keep trying in the territories, but it'd only be in the states where they could gain enough votes to ever be competitive for a Senate seat. And in their current condition, it seems unlikely they'll ever be competitive there.
The Great Australian Party
What I predicted: Its hard to predict where the GAP will land. Last election, they got above 0.5% of the vote share, but this time round they seem far less likely to do so as other right-wing parties appear with the resources and people to take that vote away from them. And with, rumour has it, Rod Culleton not in the picture right now, it seems unlikely the party will do much better this time round. I expect a small decline to below 0.4%, but wouldn't be shocked if GAP remained at 0.5%.
My Review: I'll make a bold prediction here. This will be the last election that the Great Australian Party ever contests. Its not hard to see why I've made this prediction. The party has gone from 17 lower house candidates in 2022, to 1 in 2025. That one candidate came last in their electorate (Hasluck), gaining only 1.5% of the vote in that seat. The story isn't better in the Senate. There, one of their only candidates (on a joint ticket with HEART in Queensland) withdrew from the party before the election even occurred (due to the party's leadership aka Rod Culleton), so his dismal results don't even really count. Meanwhile, in WA, where Culleton ran, the party lost 0.16% of the vote share, taking them below 1% of the vote share overall.
All of these results and changes make it very clear the party is in a terminal place. With no real candidates and the few that are still with them withdrawing with issues over the party's leader, the party probably won't survive to be in the next election. The smoking gun that confirms this all to me is the rumours I've been told of, that Rod Culleton has done a Fraser Anning and possibly fled Australia due to his issues of bankruptcy and fraud (in regards of lying to the AEC). While I can't confirm this, it seems very obvious that Culleton has disappeared, and probably won't be seen again to run in an election.
Trumpet of Patriots
What I predicted: Clive Palmer spending an absurd amount of money to not win a single seat but to try and influence politics is becoming a horrible but utterly predictable part of our election cycle. Trumpet of Patriots, if it was the original party, would have been a party I'd have predicted for less than a percent of the vote share, but because Clive has spent inordinate amounts of money of annoying and terrible ads, people will vote for him. I suspect that ToP might get anywhere between 1%-2% of the votes, likely buffered from gaining more to a surging One Nation, but still enough to unfortunately be relevant on the day.
My Review: Clive Palmer has now spent inordinate amounts of money to not only not win a single seat, but also to completely fail in trying to influence an election. That is fantastic, and also hilarious news. ToP themselves also managed to do worse than the UAP did in the 2022 election, and with Clive suggesting this is his last rodeo, we may finally be rid of his shit finally.
The party's lower house vote share has been cut, essentially, in half. While ToP ran around 2/3rds of the candidates that the UAP did, they only gained 1.9% of the national votes, while the UAP gained 4.1%. The party can't use the lower amount of candidates to claim that this is why their votes are much lower, and as such it seems very clear that Australians rejected the outright Trumpian rhetoric and ideology. This is good news for the rest of Australia, but bad news for the party.
Its a similar story in the Senate, though worse since the ToP ran in just as many places as the UAP. The party saw a decreased vote share in every single state it ran in, and while these decreases were anywhere from 0.5% to 2%, the lack of any increase is enough to demonstrate that parties ran by Clive Palmer are going into extinction. There is only one place where this reality doesn't stand, and that is in Tasmania, where the UAP only held 1.6% of the vote there in 2022, but where ToP gained 3.2% of the vote this time round. Why Tasmanians seem more receptive to the Trumpian rhetoric and talk is unknown, and I ask any journalists or analysts to look into this, but I am somewhat disappointed in Tasmanians for this. Hopefully we won't see a Clive Palmer party in 2028, so we won't have to talk about these guys ever again.
Victorian Socialists
What I predicted: Last election, Victorian Socialists managed to get just 0.5% of the vote share in the lower house and 0.7% in the upper house for Victoria. With an influencer behind them, an army of active volunteers, and a significant dearth of left-wing parties this year, it seems possible that VS might be able to capitalise and grow. While they won't win any seats, not even close, do not be shocked if VS hits above 1% in either the lower or upper house.
My Review: Well, Victorian Socialists turned out to be one of the surprise winners of this election. With good results in the Senate and a shockingly decent result in the lower house despite a lack of candidates, they are probably one of the minor parties that did best this time round (maybe only Family First did better than them, when we look at proper minor parties).
In Victoria's lower house, the party lost 0.1% of their vote share. While this may seem like a bad thing initially, the party actually went from 11 candidates in 2022 to 4 candidates in 2025, and so the level of loss they got is actually better than one may expect. If we look at their only candidate who contested both 2022 and 2025, we see that the story is actually insanely positive. Kath Larkin, who ran for Cooper in both elections, saw a swing of 5.5% for her vote, seeing the total reach to 8.9% overall. Seeing as the Liberal party only reached 14.6% in that same electorate, in an extreme but possible scenario where VS grows while the Liberals continue to decline, the Socialists might be able to leapfrog the Liberals to come third next election.
Its a similar success story in the Senate. The party received an additional 1% of the vote share, increasing their total to 1.6% and putting them in distance to start hitting results of 2-3% next election. While this isn't the best result, with an influencer like PurplePingers as their number one candidate they probably wanted more, it still is a good results (and makes my prediction correct most importantly).
A final note here is the fact that Pingers suggested Victorian Socialists may look to expand nationally by the 2028 election. Whether or not this is a good idea, I know personally that there are talks in other states, serious talks, of expansion by VS. I suspect we'll see a name change sooner rather than later, as the party attempts to capitalise on its success this time round.
Conclusion
The 2025 election was a rather insane thing to watch in the moment. Its even more insane now seeing the divides which are appearing in the Coalition. A red wave swept over Australia, and it seems that the Blue and Green wall may crumble due to it. A bit hyperbolic? Perhaps, but also, everything happening in the Coalition should not inspire confidence in any of their voters or members.
Looking at the winners and losers of the election, I think there are some clear ones. Labor, Family First, and the Victorian Socialists are big winners (in relative ways), while the Liberals, Gerard Rennick, and the Libertarians are some of the biggest losers. The Greens and One Nation did not see the election go the way they wish either, though their losses (or in One Nation's case, small gains) aren't the end of the world. Other parties, like FUSION or the SFF need to change things up, or their results this election will be seen as a portent of what is to come. A small few, like Australia's Voice, are in a good place now if only they dedicate the time, effort, and manpower to capitalise going into 2028.
One final thing I'd like to predict are what parties may still be around come 2028. Immediately, the Great Australian Party is out, while I think there's a 90% chance People First and HEART are also gone. Others, such as SFF and FUSION need to step up their game, or risk losing registration as members move away. Less likely to disappear, but always at risk are parties like the Democrats (whose survival is insane these days), Trumpet of Patriots, Sustainable Australia, the Indigenous-Aboriginal Party, and the Australian Citizens Party. I don't think all, or even most of them will disappear, but these parties will teeter on the edge. There are also a few parties that I think will just disappear because of reality, such as the Better Together Party which didn't end up properly running this time round. Similar is Centre Alliance, since I think Rebehka Sharkie will finally let the party die off. Two final hot predictions I want to make include that I think there is a chance that the Jacqui Lambie Network disappears next election, if not in 2031, as Lambie either retires or tries to focus on her own election survival, and that the Dai Le & Frank Carbone Western Sydney Community could become a massive regionalist force in 2028 if the proper effort is put in.
All in all, I've had a heap of fun this election writing my guide, reviews, talking on Bluesky about it, and finishing up this. It was great to engage with the community around Auspol and the election this year, and will keep engaging as we enter the normal political period. Also, keep an eye out for guides, reviews, and the like for the state elections occurring over the next three years, with the South Australian election coming up next. Thanks again for reading!
