A Retrospective on Nick Xenophon and SA-Best | Or, how I learned to stop worrying and drive a small car around parliament

This week marks the end of Nick Xenophon's political party legacy (statewise atleast) as SA-Best has been voluntarily de-registered. As such, I've decided to do a short post regarding the history of Nick Xenophon and SA-Best, looking at where it came from and what its left behind.

To understand SA-Best, we need to go all the way back to the start of Nick Xenophon's career (briefly, I promise). While Xenophon didn't technically enter the 'political arena' until 1997, he was heavily involved with the politics of the University of Adelaide's student publication On Dit. It was while he was part of the On Dit team that Xenophon truly found his footing in politics, being elected via the Liberal Club ticket before falling out with them over vote rigging (the articles are findable via the University's archival site, they are very much worth the read considering the way both Xenophon and those he is accusing write). This issue was what led him to become removed from party politics, or so he claims.

In any case, Xenophon's first foray into non-university related electoral politics came in 1997, when he stood as an Independent for the state election. Under the ticket 'No Pokies' - anti-gambling becoming a trademark of Xenophon's politics - Xenophon went on to win a seat in the Legislative Council through preference flows from many smaller parties. The first Independent on the South Australian Legislative Council in 60 years, Xenophon was occasionally kingmaker, as the Legislative Council at the time had no majority, and both Liberal and Labor needing his vote alongside the Democrats to pass legislation at times. It was during this time, in 2003, that Xeniphone drove a miniature car around parliament to protest car perks, an image that is permanently burned into my mind. While Xenophon was a vocal parliamentarian at the least active of times, his brand of pageantry and spectacle really came across at the 2006 state election, where he used props such as a model train, a goat, and a wearable sandwich board to campaign. Though this may seem odd, in time, this came to be something Xenophon was well known for. His 2006 campaign was so effective, winning him over 20% of the vote, that not only was he re-elected, the second person on his ticket, Ann Bressington, was also elected. 

Following the resounding success of his state campaign, Xenophon did the next logical thing and resigned to run for federal Senate. This was another demonstration of one of Xenophon's most forward-facing features, ambition that would make even Eric Bischoff bluff. Pulling a few more animal-related stunts (such as walking a mule down Rundle Mall to show how he was stubborn) in the process, Xenophon managed to win a Senate seat at the 2007 federal election as an Independent, with 14.78% of the vote. His resignation from state politics for this did cause some issues, as his spot had to be filled - being done so by John Darley, his ticket's 3rd candidate - and causing Bressington to slam Xenophon in parliament, calling him a sham who had forced her to put $50,000 towards the state election campaign. Much like many of Xenophon's 'allies and friends', Bressington's story goes into some wild places, but I'll leave that for the end of this reflection. 

In the Senate, Xenophon played kingmaker at times once more, though this finished up by 2011 as the Greens got more and more seats. He continued to push against gambling, while appearing at times in the news for attacking Scientology and accusing a Catholic priest of rape in parliament. Fast forwarding past the 2013 election, we get to 2014, where the roots of SA-Best appear properly.

You see, while Xenophon continued his role as Senator, Darley remained a diligent ally in the SA Legislative Council. He won, for the first time, at the 2014 state election, and did so as part of the Nick Xenophon Ticket. This ticket, the brainchild of the Nick Xenophon Group (another feature of Xenophon is his use of his name brand), morphed into the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT), of which Darley was the first sitting member. Back on the federal side of things, NXT registered as a party and ran at the 2016 federal election, which was the infamous double dissolution (where all Senate seats were to be elected, not just half). With Xenophon leading things, NXT ran candidates across Australia, including 4 lower house candidates in NSW, 2 in Queensland, 1 in Victoria. In South Australia, NXT had candidates in every seat, as well as 4 candidates for the Senate. The election went well for Xenophon, with him getting re-elected to the Senate alongside the newly elected Striling Griff and Skye Kakoschke-Moore. NXT also won a single seat in the lower house, with Rebekha Sharkie winning the seat of Mayo in SA.

This was, again, quite the success story. And, if you can believe it, following this success, Xenophon decided it was time to transition back to state politics. In doing so, he was replaced by the Transparency Warrior himself, Rex Patrick (soon after, Kakoschke-Moore also had to be replaced due to the parliamentary eligibility crisis, with Tim Storer, who was 4th on the NXT ticket, taking her place but only after he left the party to become an independent). Xenophon announced his resignation in October 2017, only a few months after the titular party, SA-Best, was registered in the state.

Finally, we can talk about the deregistered party. SA-Best was intended to replace NXT at the state level, which was never registered with the ECSA, so you might think that Darley would be SA-Best's first sitting parliamentarian. Well that's where you're wrong, because nothing can be simple in this story. He did sit with the party for one month until August 2017, but left the party as he was about to be expelled for voting against the party's stance on electoral reform, calling Xenophon a dictator as he did. No matter though, as in the lead up to the 2018 state election, it became clear that Xenophon may have struck gold orange. Multiple political commentors, including Antony Green, predicted SA-Best to do quite well at the election, with it very much seeming like the party was going to situate itself as a genuine third-party alternative to Labor and Liberal. Polls came out showing that Xenophon was by far the preferred premier to Jay Weatherill and Steven Marshall, with some going so far as to show SA-Best as polling better than either party in the state. I can't even pretend that I wasn't caught up in it all, 17 year old me barracked for them hard at high school and tried to volunteer for them (though they never responded to my email). That is not to say SA-Best didn't have issues during the campaign. Xenophon had to remortgage his house to pay for candidates to register, with 36 SA-Best candidates nominating for the lower house and 5 doing so for the upper house. He was opposed heavily by the Australian Hotels Association due to his anti-gambling policies as well. Perhaps his biggest (and most memorable) fumble though was the TV advertisement he and the party put up for the election. I've linked it for your entertainment, and its the right level of cringe to have a good laugh no matter the amount of times you've seen it, but Xenophon being unable to sing made a 2-minute musical ad a hilariously bad choice, as did some of the very amateur level acting throughout. 

In the end, SA-Best didn't reach the heights that many believed it would (with Xenophon's goal being the balance of power), but it also did find relative success. It got 14.2% of the vote in the lower house, and 19.35% in the Legislative Council, enough to win 2 seats and elect Connie Bonaros and the Watch Dog Frank Pangallo. It won no seats in the lower house despite getting to the two-party-preferred vote in 12 seats and winning over 45% of the 2PP vote in Heysen and Finniss. Xenophon himself was left without a seat, losing a 3-way race in Hartley to Vincent Tarzia (who was not the favourite to win the seat against Xenophon and Labor candidate Grace Portolesi), winning 24.9% of the primary vote but being leapfrogged by Portolesi via preferences, meaning he did not reach the 2PP stage. Besides a failed attempt to return to politics alongside Stirling Griff at the 2022 State Election, which saw them get only 2.99% of the vote for the Senate, this was the end of Xenophon's time in politics (and considering his current battle with a brain tumour, it seems unlikely that he'll ever return). 

While Xenophon was out, SA-Best was very much a living and breathing entity, led now by Bonaros and Pangallo. It quickly removed Nick Xenophon out of its party name, attempting to position itself as its own thing, with NXT doing the same at the federal level and becoming Centre Alliance. SA-Best became a case of two independents in a top-hat, with Bonaros putting forward bills regulating child-like sex dolls and anime/manga which included within it themes of sex and sexual crimes while Pangallo was the architect of the bill which removed the South Australian Independent Commission Against Corruption's ability to investigate misconduct. While the two were not the most united of allies, the party did stand a single candidate for the lower house and two for the upper house at the 2022 state election, though the result of 1% in the upper house elected demonstrated what many knew, that the party was essentially dead without Xenophon. By 2023, Bonaros and Pangallo had split, seemingly over whether to support the merger of the University of Adelaide and University of South Australia, though Darley had, all the way back in 2018, stated that a split was inevitable. Pangallo went on to join the Liberal Party and run a terrible campaign which I've covered elsewhere on this blog, while Bonaros remained with SA-Best. I was optimistic for her going into the 2026 state election, as was she for herself to be fair, running 5 candidates in the upper house and 1, Thomas McNab for Flinders, in the lower house. The result of 0.6% dashed that optimism and meant that Bonaros was not re-elected, leading to the deregistration which led to this blog post.

SA-Best was perhaps a blip in South Australia's history, but it was a blip which, had some seats gone slightly differently, could have completely changed the state's political scene. I do not think Xenophon was ever going to be the party of government in the state, but it was possible a slightly larger orange wave could have made SA-Best a longer-term institution in the state. It's also possible that if Xenophon remained content in federal parliament, that he would have remained a parliamentarian until the tumour made it impossible to do so. Either way, SA-Best demonstrated how discontent surrounding the two major parties could allow a third option to have its time in the limelight. And to quote Dr. Doofensmurtz, if I had a nickel for every time an orange party suddenly rose to prospective third party dominance in SA state elections, I'd have two nickels, which isn't alot but still weird that it happened twice. 

Before I end this post, I think its worth showing where the 'legacies' of Nick Xenophon's time in politics ended up, the politicians whose careers were birthed because of his. 

Firstly, Ann Bressington, who always had weird ideas (including the time she proposed a bill that would enforce two random drug tests per year on high school students), attempted to run as a member of the Katter's Australian Party (yes, that Katter) at the 2014 state election, though it never ended up registering in SA and she did not end up recontesting her seat. She also helped Greens MLC Mark Parnell set a record-breaking filibuster in 2008.

Next is John Darley, who we've already talked about a few times. Following his resignation from SA-Best in 2017, he and Peter Humphries (who also worked with Xenophon previously) formed Advance SA, which never found any electoral success and which died with Darley's failed re-election campaign in 2022.

Quickfire now, with Stirling Griff and Skye Kakoschke-Moore, perhaps two of the most 'normal' Xenophon-spawns in existence. While Kakoschke-Moore's was cut short due to the eligiblity crisis (and was unable to win her seat back at the 2019 election), Griff remained in parliament until his term expired, choosing to resign at the end of his term as opposed to fighting what was a certainly lost battle of re-election. While a Senator, he supported same-sex marriage, euthanasia, and cancer research, pushed for bans on manga and anime which depicted "child exploitation", and took part in an Israeli Fellowship program. Since leaving politics, Griff has been a part of various health advocacy programs.

Moving on, we reach Tim Storer, the man who wasn't technically a member of any of Xenophon's parties but got to parliament because of him. Main thing to note about him is that he actually had his own party (with one of the worst logos I've ever seen) called Tim Storer's Independent SA Party. As Tim only made it a year and 3 months due to 'family reasons', there's not much else to say, though apparently his brother is married to Annabel Crabb.

I've already talked about both Bonaros and Pangallo, so that leaves us with Rex Patrick and Rebekha Sharkie. Patrick remained in Senate until 2022, generally fighting for transparency measures, and splitting from Centre Alliance in 2020 to form his own party, the Rex Patrick Team (obviously inspired by NXT). He'd had no luck at the 2022 election, failing to be re-elected, but this simply gave him more time to do what he loves most, submit Freedom of Information requests. Between submitting those, he did run for local government in August 2022, attempting to become Lord Mayor of Adelaide. And while he came tantalisingly close, losing to Jane Lomax-Smith by 52 votes, his appetite for electoral politics, as he ran for Senate at the 2025 federal election as part of the Jacqui Lambie Network, doing better than his previous attempt but not getting a seat.

That leaves us with the genuine last woman standing, Sharkie. Since being re-elected at the 2018 by-election after being forced to resign due to the parliamentary eligibility crisis, Sharkie has generally been seen as an immoveable rock in the seat of Mayo, winning by larger 2PP results at every election. While Centre Alliance still survives through her, she is an Independent, a fact she has essentially admitted, and she generally leans closer to the Liberal Party (having planned to run for the party back in 2014, and showing her support for them at the latest federal election). Considering her latest politics include banning flag-burning, a signature policy of the right-wing these days, one can only guess where she leans now.

In any case, I hope this post serves as an interesting and entertaining recount of Nick Xenophon's time in politics and SA-Best's time as a party. The party may be deregistered, and Centre Alliance may as well be dead, but I am sure dreams of an orange wave led by a man in a small car (and not Pauline Hanson) still play in the heads of some South Australians. Godspeed SA-Best, you were fun while you lasted.

2026 SA Election Results Analysis - Malislide and Orange Wave

Yesterday's election was one for the history books. The Malislide has came and went, and yet its affects were dampened by the simultaneous appearance of an orange wave. All this has cause catastrophe for the Liberals, but at the same time, they managed to do better in seats than some polls were suggesting. This is all to say that South Australia has become a testing ground for what really happens when the primary votes of the Major Parties falter, and I think its an incredibly interesting thing to examine closer.

Starting broad and making our way in, I think we've got a pretty clear picture now of how SA is turning out numbers-wise. Labor's got 39% of the vote and is on track to win 35 seats, the Liberals have 19% of the vote and will probably take home 5 seats, One Nation has 21.7% of the vote and will win up to 4 seats, while the Greens had 11% for 0 seats (unless Heysen gets really weird, we'll talk about that in a second), and it seems very likely that there will be at least 3 Independents (could be 4 depending on Kavel). These results are playing out in a similar way in the Legislative Council. Labor's won 4 seats, One Nation 2 seats, the Liberals 1 with 1 likely, and the Greens 1 seat with fairly similar vote shares. 2 seats are very much in doubt, though with One Nation on a 2.8 quota I suspect they'll win a 3rd seats, and than it'll actually come down to preferences between Labor, the Greens, and Legalise Cannabis, with Family First having an outside chance. We'll also talk more about the Legislative Council later on, because I think its results are going to massively shape political rhetoric and debates in the years to come. As an aside, pour one out for the loss of Tammy Franks, Jing Lee, and Connie Bonaros, none of them are retaining their seats.

One notable thing, in my opinion, is the fact that One Nation will not be the opposition. While One Nation's surge has met the expectations of the polls, the fact that they will remain SA's third party will massively hurt them over the next 4 years. They need sustained media presence to remain strong, and unless they think they can maintain a surge based on the politics of the moment across 4 years, their strategy of complain without many policies won't work. Don't get me wrong, this result is also horrific for the Liberals, but them remaining opposition will give them the chance to right the ship before 2030, while not being in opposition gives One Nation every chance to completely screw things up. 

Seat Analysis

Narrowing in abit, lets talk about some specific seats. Starting with Adelaide, Labor's held that aggressively, despite 10% of people in the seat voting for 'wanted man on the run' Aoi Baxter (and that isn't coming from pre-polls, people on the day literally voted for him). The biggest story there is Keiran Snape just coming in at 9.5%, just under the 10% I predicted he'd get. Considering he ran a pretty active campaign, one would assume that result isn't as high as he would have hoped, though I doubt this is the last time we'll have seen Snape around.

Black is another one where an Independent has fallen where many predicted they'd rise. "I'd do a line or two" ex-Leader of the Opposition David Speirs has come 4th with 14% of the vote, and while the ABC and poll bludger are predicting Speirs will end up in the 2CP, he would still have to jump the Greens and One Nation (yes, the Liberals are 5th in the seat with a dismal 8.6%). From what I heard of people watching the broadcast, Speirs was having a dismal time on 9 News table during the night. Another seat where the Liberals are having a downright atrocious time is in Croydon. The seat of Premier Malinauskas (who's seeing a 4.5% decrease in his primary vote currently), the Liberals are currently 4th but have the SA Socialists nipping at their heels, with only 70 votes between them. It does seem that the seat is going to become a weird Labor v One Nation seat, though this barely matters in the grand scheme considering 2CP estimates have Malinauskas winning with 75% of the vote.

Moving on to some seats which were looking weird at the start of the night, we've got Elizabeth, Finniss, and Flinders. Elizabeth is firmly with Labor now, but, as I mentioned last night on the Tally Room livestream, the choice to select a stupol hack in the seat has come back to bite Labor on the ass, with Ella Shaw seeing a 14% swing against her. Part of this issue can be seen in the Greens getting a 3% swing to them, in a seat that doesn't fit the Greens generally. I'll also note that the Liberals at 5% in the seat, only ~200 votes above Family First and Legalise Cannabis. Finniss, on the other hand, is a very interesting one. Lou Nicholson is 3rd behind the Liberals and One Nation, but despite being 3% behind both (she's on 20.5%), it seems likely she'll win the seat off Bron Lewis', Greens', and Labor's preferences. This is one of the few seats where Labor is coming 4th, with only 17% of the vote, so Labor will certainly need to look at what they've done wrong there in the coming months. Finally, in Flinders, it seems Telfer has beaten back a rather determined surge by One Nation. With 34% of the vote, the Liberals will keep that seat, and I stand confirmed in my disbelief of Meghan Petherick actually winning the seat (I will be honest, if One Nation didn't contest I think she does win). 

There are a few key seats will in doubt. Hammond, for instance, looks like it'll fall to One Nation, but that entirely relies on how Liberal and Independent preferences fall (I overestimated how well Airlie Keen was going to do, her vote was entirely cannabilised by One Nation it seems). What we do know is that 20-year no brand recognition MP Adrian Pederick is out of that seat, no matter if Labor or One Nation win. Heysen is another seat that's going to massively rely on proper preference counts. Labor and the Liberals are neck andd neck in that race, with the ABC suggesting that there's only 76 votes in the 2PP count, but it is still possible that the Greens manage to come 2nd. That'll entirely depend on how One Nation preferences fall, and while one would imagine that the Greens won't get many One Nation preferences, they do tend to be really weird, and after you take away the significant amount that'll flow to the Liberals, there are likely plenty of One Nation voters who put the major parties last and as such put the Greens above Labor. I don't know if the Greens would win in such a scenario, but I don't think such a scenario is out of view just yet. Kavel also remains in doubt, though I am pretty confident the Independent, Matt Schultz, is going to win. The ABC has the seat in doubt because, depending on preferences, One Nation could leapfrog him, but I am not certain Greens and Liberal preferences will flow heavily enough to them for that to happen. If it does, I think Labor wins based on Schultz's preferences.

As an aside, my hot take of Vincent Tarzia retaining Hartley has been obliterated. Labor's Jenn Roberts took home 37% of the vote, while Tarzia's primary vote share collapsed by 21%, ending on 30% overall. The man who beat Nick Xenophon could not survive the orange wave, though it is notable that One Nation only increased by 15% here, meaning a significant amount of Tarzia's share was spread elsewhere.

Looking at some more regional and of interest seats, MacKillop is likely to fall into One Nation's hands, though it is very close and entirely possible that the Liberals get the seat. Nick McBride, whose comments last night downplayed his assault charges and suggested that him being 'unfairly' seen as guilty caused issue for his campaign, will likely come 4th. Turns out my belief that those in MacKillop would turn a blind eye to his behaviour was wrong, though I highly suspect this is more a result of One Nation's surge than anything McBride did. Mount Gambier, meanwhile, seems to be in the hands of Independent Travis Fatchen (seems my gut feeling the night before was right), though it is a close primary vote race between him and One Nation. Preferences from Labor, the Liberals, and the Greens will get him over the line. Shockingly, Cody Scholes got 6% of the vote, which is a depressing fact. Narungga is a seat from last night that people seemed certain One Nation had one. As it stands right now, the Liberals are leading the 2CP by 200 votes, despite them only having 23% of the primary vote share and One Nation having 37%. Pollbludger has that seat as a One Nation gain, but thats going off an Independent v One Nation 2cp which I don't think is going to happen anymore. Another interesting seat from the election is Ngadjuri. Currently, One Nation is in the lead there, but that entirely depends on whether Labor the Liberals are excluded first (at this point it seems the Liberals will be, giving One Nation the win). Either way, it seems Tony Piccolo's move to the seat was very poorly decided, though in Antony Green's words, it does give him the excuse to retire. Finally, looking at Stuart, it seems Geoff Brock has retained the seat and my hot take (slightly misinformed by me misreading the 3cp from last election) was wrong. 

To round off, I've got a couple seats that are of interest to me. Labor will hold Port Adelaide, and Claire Boan has soundly been seen off, coming third with 14% of the vote. True Blue Crew member Joel Hendrie got 20% of the vote, which is dire scenes, while Socialist Alliance Independent Anne McMenamin got 1.6% of the vote to come 8th. Meanwhile, in Schubert, Hurn held her seat despite my doubts, and actually didn't lose much of her primary vote. On the 2CP, she is actually up 10%, though that comes down to Labor finishing 3rd (turns out a 21yr old uni student isn't a good pick in elections like this). Stopping at Unley for a quick second, Ryan Harrison only finished on 4.4%, though I think that won't stop him from trying again in the future, while in Waite, watchdog Frank Pangallo is going to lose and may even come third considering the fact that the Greens are right on his tail (both being on 16.7%). Lastly, in Wright, 8.5% of people voted for Carston Woodhouse despite him being disendorsed nearly a week prior to the election, though that did see a 23% swing away from the Liberals in the seat.

Legislative Council

As I've mentioned, we've got a pretty good look at how the Legislative Council will end up. The 2nd to last seat is pretty much determined as well, with One Nation's Rebecca Hewett taking it. The 11th seat is going to be a battle between Labor, the Greens, and Legalise Cannabis, with each on a quota of .36, .38, and .31. Preference flows will be vital there, and we probably won't know the winner until one of the three are excluded. 

One thing to note with the Legislative Council is that, this result very likely means that the anti-abortion bill will be back. Tammy Franks, Jing Lee, and Connie Bonaros all voted against the previous bill, and while Franks is technically being replaced by the Greens with Melanie Selwood, Jing Lee is being replaced by a One Nation candidate. If One Nation gets 3 seats, the 11th seat becomes crucial, especially consdering that Labor's 5th candidate, Claire Scriven, is a known anti-abortion politician, whereas the Greens candidate is pro-abortion (Legalise Cannabis' Jessica Nies is an unknown quantity). Should Scriven get in, that would make the anti-abortion cohort in the Legislative Council 10 (not 11 as Frank Pangallo is also out), with Ben Hood, Dennis Hood, Sarah Game, Scriven, Tung Ngo, Heidi Girolamo, Nicola Centofanti, and the 3 One Nation candidates making it up. On the flip side, the pro-abortion cohort would be around 9-10, depending on where Hilton Gumbys sits and whether Laura Henderson/Reggie Martin end up having to pair off again. As such, there seems to be the potential for the anti-abortion bill getting through the upper house, though if it was likely I could see Malinauskas putting his foot down and forcing Labor to vote against it to save the party from having to deal with that in the lower house.

Minor Parties

This election has been hell for SA's minor parties, with many becoming the largest casualties to the Orange Wave. In the lower house, Family First has dropped 2%, while every other minor party stagnated. Only Legalise Cannabis did okay, with 1% of the vote, though that is because this is the first time they've ran lower house candidates in SA. Its just as bad in the upper house, with Family First dropping 1% and the rest doing quite poorly. Once again, Legalise Cannabis is the only real winner amongst the bunch. 

Something key to note is that these poor results are going to be horrific for parties like Family First. The party put forward a significant amount of candidates, over 30, and yet slide back in vote percentage by over half of what it got in 2022. Its probably common sense, but they're just too similar to One Nation. Even worse off is the Australian Family Party. While this wont hold, they're barely looking at an average of over 100 votes per candidate, considering they ran candidates in every single seat. Bob Day has firmly been rejected (its actually worse when you consider he stated he was running with the support of 6 other minor parties). The story is the same for Fair Go for Australia and Real Change SA, with very poor showings throughout the entire state. The worst result though is United Voice Australia, Mark Aldridge's party. With 14 candidates, they're only just above 100 votes per candidate, and I don't think that'll actually increase by much as counting continues. Mark's spent the last 12 hours ranting and ravving, claiming he's going to retire, but the reality is when you run a campaign with 0 policies, no name or face candidates, and no publicity, you aren't going to get votes anywhere. 

2026 SA State Election Live Thread

Welcome to my 2026 SA State Election Live Thread! This is my first time doing one of these for an election, so it's going to be abit of an experiment. I'll be updating this thread throughout the night with results and other news. I'll also be keeping track of my own predictions here. Finally, from 7pm-7:30pm I will be on Ben Raue's The Tally Room's election night livestream, so be sure to check me out there! 

I'll obviously be keeping an eye out for the major stories of the night, things like how many seats Labor gets, whether One Nation finishes 2nd anywhere (or god forbid, first). I'll also be looking across the state at key seats, including Mount Gambier, Kavel, Elizabeth, Narungga, and Finniss amongst others, since these are some of the seats where the outcome isn't just Labor Wins Lol. Finally, since I am a bit of a minor-party head, I will be taking the time to look at how minor parties are doing across the night, especially in regards to the SA Socialists, Fair Go for Australia, SA Best, and Legalise Cannabis. 

If you've got any questions or comments, feel free to comment on this post or on the Bluesky post containing the link to this thread and I'll respond once I see it.

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Prediction Tally

Lower House:

Correct ✔ | 

Incorrect ✖ |

Upper House:

Correct ✔ |

Incorrect ✖ |

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Live Updates

11:00pm - Final

Counting seems to be slowing down tonight, so here's abit of a recap. As it stands, the ABC has Labor on 30 and the Liberals on 4, with Labor having 38% of the vote, One Nation 21%, Liberals 18%, and the Greens 12%. Pollbludger has Labor on 33 seats, the Liberals on 4, One Nation on 1, and 1 Independent, with Labor having 38% of the vote, the Liberals 19%, One Nation 21%, and the Greens 12%. Alot of counting still to do, and even more around preferences, so we won't know the true final results for a while. Tonight has shown that the polls were pretty right with One Nation, but even that large result won't be enough for them to become the opposition. 

Seats to keep watching include MacKillop, Narungga, Mount Gambier, Kavel, Finniss, and Hammond. 

Thats it for me tonight, I've got a party to keep enjoying! Thank you for keeping up with me tonight, I hope you found my updates and presence on the Tally Room's livestream enjoyable and informative! 

10:35pm

Ngadjuri is an interesting seat this late in the night. It seems Tony Piccolo's choice to move to the seat has failed him. He's coming third and I doubt the 4.4% from the Greens will be enough for him to surpass One Nation to come 2nd. With him 3rd, I think its very likely Penny Pratt wins the seat, being one of the few Liberals to have a good showing despite a One Nation surge.

10:15pm

Narungga is now in doubt, with ABC predicting that the Liberals are actually ahead right now. Pollbludger has the seat as a ON Gain, but it does seem that this seat will need a good old manual preference count until we really know. Another seat where this has happened is Hammond. Pollbludger has it as ON Ahead, while ABC is uncertain of who will even come 2nd. I think its likely this seat will be a Labor v One Nation seat, and in that case I think it may go to Labor.

10:07pm

Mawson continues the trend of this outer-urban seats being weird. Labor's first with 37%, One Nation is 2nd with 26%, while the Greens and Liberals are fighting over third which around 15% each. Labor will win this seat quite handily, but its showing that One Nation may have some sway in these outer-urban areas, and that the Greens have more interest than the Liberals in those same spots.

9:50pm

Looks like the ABC isn finally confirming an Independent win in Kavel, same with pollbludger. This is quite good for my predictions (which may be suffering elsewhere right now. It is probably a seat that won't be probably called without days of counting, considering that from the Greens to Labor there's only 11% in it with 5 candidates in that range, so that'll be interesting. This has just changed to IND Likely again, can the ABC make up its mind?

9:35pm

In a short update, the SA Socialists are currently beating the Liberals in Croydon (7.5% to 7.2%), meaning the Liberals are 5th in that seat. Genuinely insane, don't think anyones predicted this.

9:30pm

Taylor is starting to look like an interesting seat. The ABC, but not the Pollbludger site, is suggesting that One Nation may be winning the 2CP. I'm not sure how, Labor is on 41% while One Nation is on 29.7%, and with the Greens on 10.6% I can't see One Nation's path to victory here. But the ABC suggests there is one, so keep an eye here.

9:20pm 

One of the most interesting 'basic' Liberal vs Labor seats right now is Heysen. Josh Teague (LNP) is currently ahead in the primary vote with 31%, while Marisa Bell (ALP) is coming 2nd with 25%. With the ABCs estimated preferences, Bell is winning the 2pp 51/49, a very close result that very well could change when one considers the fact that the Greens have 23.7% of the vote. The Greens wont come 2nd, One Nation flows will ensure that, but their preferences may swing this even further in Labor's favour.

9:00pm

Looking at the overall state, the One Nation vote is going down as I suspected. They're still on 21% but thats much lower than earlier, and all of that is pretty much coming from the Liberals, who are down 17% (while One Nation is up 18%). Labor on the other hand is down 2%, and I suspect that most of this is going to the Greens who are up 3%. In terms of seats, Labors on 29 in the ABC and the Liberals are on 5, Kavel seems to have gone back to 'in doubt'. Pollbludger meanwhile has 26 Labor, 4 Liberal, 2 One Nation (Hammond and Narungga) and 2 Independents (Kavel and Mount Gambier). Things are firming up right now, but I think its quite clear that the Liberals will remain the opposition, which, in all honesty, could be a massive stumbling block for One Nation's rise in SA. 

Looking at some key seats, Ella Shaw (ALP) is vastly ahead in Elizabeth now, with 42% of the primary vote with 10% of the vote counted. Hanton (ON) is down to 31%, so I think we're at a point where its safe to call it for Labor, especially with the Greens on 11%. Finniss meanwhile continues to be a 3 horse race, with One Nation and the Liberals on the same vote of 23.3% and Lou Nicholson trailing by only 1.5%. Still too close to call, but I think Nicholson probably has it on these results. Mount Gambier continues to be a very interesting seat, with Travis Fatchen on 26.5% and One Nation on 28.7%. That seat is entirely going to come down to 34% of preference flows, which will be an insane thing to watch. Finally, over in Stuart, I'll bow my head and say I got that one wrong, Geoff Brock's got 36% vs One Nation's 28% and I don't think Liberal preferences will give enough to One Nation for them to win. 

8:35pm

Absolutely horrific line from Nick McBridge on the ABC. "My issues have come back to haunt me", the issues being charges of assault against his wife. There was an audible laugh on the ABC broadcast when he said that. I may have predicted wrong, but I am happy he may lose. "My allegations haven't been proven, haven't been substantiated" and now he's complaining about not being presumed innocent. Absolute horror show.

8:25pm

There is one silver lining for the Liberal Party so far, and that is in Bragg. There, Jack Batty has managed to retain against Rick Sarre (making this Sarre's 5th election loss). Batty has 42.7% of the primary vote, so his retain there is certain.

8:15pm

Looking at some interesting candidates, Frank Pangallo in Waite is looking like he'll be coming third in primary votes there below the Greens, though I suspect One Nation preferences will put him into 2nd place overall. In Unley, Ryan Harrsion has crashed and burnt, with only 3.7% of the vote. That seat seems to be almost certainly Labor's win, with Alice Rolls taking that off the Liberals. Daivd Speirs, running in Black, may enter the 2CP race depending on if he can beat out the Greens and One Nation in primaries (its a very close race there with all three on 15%-17%), but he has no chance of winning. Finally, in Finniss, it seems likely that Independent Lou Nicholson will take it, though she is third in the primary vote share on 21.6% with One Nation and the Liberals above here with about 2% more of the vote. I think, if Nicholson keeps it close, preferences from the Independent Bron Lewis, the Greens, and Labor will get her the win.

8:10pm

A seat I have personal interest in, Croydon, is looking interesting. Premier Malinauskas has obviously won the seat, but has done so by losing 5% of his primary vote. The current results, at 11% counted, suggest One Nation will come third with 12%, but it is really close, with the Greens on 9%, Liberals on 8%, SA Socialists on 7.5%, and Family First on 6%. Preference flows from the SA Socialists, which will massively favour the Greens, could have the Greens coming 2nd, for instance, while a 2% swing could see the Socialists come third and take Greens preferences. Very interesting to watch.

8:05pm

Looking at the overall picture, between ABC and Pollbludger there's abit of an interesting different. Polbludger has Labor on 13, Liberals on 2, One Nation on 1, while the ABC has Labor on 20, the Liberals on 3, and an Independent (I assume Matt Schultz in Kavel) on 1. Pollbludger shows Narungga is going to be a One Nation gain, while it seems Kavel and Mt Gambier will go to Independents according to them.

One Nation's primary vote is falling now as urban seats come in, down to 20.7%, only slightly higher than the Liberals who are on 20%. I think its likely that vote falls even lower, to 19%, but only time will tell. 

8:00pm

Looking at a few seats right now in focus, Elizabeth is a very interesting one. Only 1% have been counted, but if Labor and One Nation end up on similar primary votes and the Greens vote of 13% holds, its hard to say that won't be a Labor retain. Mount Gambier on the flip side seems like hell to call, with One Nation and the Independent Travis Fatchen both sitting on 26% with 13% counted. One suspects Fatchen will win based on Liberal and Labor preference flows but we may not know for a very good while. Finally, looking at Chaffey, One Nation and the Liberals are also equal on 35% with 9% counted. It'll be very hard to say which will win, but one has to assume that the Greens and Labor preferences will flow better to the Liberals.

7:50pm

ABC has called the election for Labor. This is not shocking at all. The bigger question will be how much they win by and who ends up coming second.

7:45pm

I've finished up with the Tally Room, and things are looking incredibly spicy! One Nation seems to have gotten the numbers the polls have said they would have, but it hasn't translated into seats just yet. Currently, they're not actually ahead in the 2CP for any seat, but that may very well change as 2CP counts occur. I will say this is looking to be a poor election for Independents and also alot of the Liberals. I don't think either side will be wiped out, but it certainly seems both have lost voters to One Nation. 

Key seats to keep an eye out for include Mt Gambier where it may very well end up being Independent vs One Nation, as well as Chaffey, Elizabeth, and Narungga. 

7:00pm

Our first results are in! Of course, as we always here, they never tell the story of the night. But it is interesting to look at them. 

6:33pm

We're hearing that the ECSA has decided that a few seats have decided on ~a dozen seats where its not being counted as a two party count. Some are sensible, like Kavel where its Independent vs One of the Majors, others aren't in my opinon, such as Schubert being Liberal vs One Nation. It'll be interesting to see if its got these right or not. 

6:00pm

Voting has closed! I think we'll be waiting around 20-30 minutes for results, so we're in that weird period of the night.

3:30pm

Election day is here! With 2.5hrs to go until polls close and counting starts, its time for me to open up this thread. It's pretty beautiful weather here in Adelaide, 23 degrees and sunny, so that may assist with electoral turnout. Vibes on the ground feel pretty normal, my booth had volunteers from the SA Socialists, Greens, Labor, AJP, and the Liberals, as well as A-Frames from Tammy Franks and 'Muslim Votes Matters', so you'd think my seat was some leftist wonderland. A drive around changes this view abit, I've seen other polling places with One Nation, United Voice Australia, and Family First, but it does make my polling location abit of an interesting outlier. I will say that the effects of pre-poll voting are becoming quite clear, I was in and out of the location in 5 minutes with essentially no line. And of course, I got my 2 democracy sausages and solo, so it was good there.

Of course, we've still got a decent bit of time before the election which I'm going to use preparing, but soon, we'll be into the real start of the day. We'll see how much Labor will win by, how badly the Liberals lose, whether the polls are right on One Nation, and which party does the worst in every seat. Keep an eye here because I am going to try and update quite frequently. 

Predictions for the 2026 South Australian State Election

Hi all, this post contains my official predictions for the 2026 South Australian State Election. I'll start with my broad predictions and then move into seat by seat and minor party predictions.

General Predictions

Lets get the big one out of the way. Labor is going to win the election. I don't think there is a single person (besides some One Nation cookers already claiming the election was rigged) in the country who thinks that result is in doubt. 

The real question of course is, by how much are Labor going to win by? The current range of polls since Ashton Hurn became leader of the Liberal party has Labor on a 35% to 44% primary vote and with a much smaller 59%-61% two party preferred vote. The variance between their primary vote and two party preferred is telling of a party who is not loved by all but tolerated by most, considering the lack of any viable alternative. If we take a result of 60% 2PP as the likely outcome for Labor on election night, that would mean a 2PP swing of 5.4% from the results of 2022. 

If we take that swing and apply it to the current margins of seats, we get an absolute horror story for the Liberal Party. They would lose Morialta, Heysen, Unley, Ngadjuri, Hartley, Morphett, Colton, and even Hammond. Only Finniss, Bragg, Schubert, Chaffey, and Flinders would be safe. Of course, a completely uniform swing is unlikely, and this ignores the fact that Finniss and potentially Flinders will be battlegrounds where Independent candidates will play an important role.

Taking a more narrow view, I think its safe to say that Labor will not lose a seat. At the same time, I think Morialta, Heysen, Unley, Ngadjuri, Morphett, and Colton are firmly within Labor's sights. Hartley should be there, but Vincent Tarzia survived Nick Xenophon, so anything is possible. Adrian Pederick in Hammond may well survive by the skin of his teeth. Further up field, I think Finniss will likely go to Lou Nicholson (Independent) while Bragg and Schubert will be far closer than they seem to be now. 

Before we get into numbers, I did want to officially predict that neither One Nation nor the Greens will get a lower house seat. I've heard and seen people predicting these things, it just won't happen. If we were facing a less well-tolerated Labor, maybe things would be different, but we aren't.

In terms of the number's, I am going to do two predictions. Firstly, a range that I think is most likely. And than, because I'm not a coward, I'll give exact numbers.

Prediction 1 (Range):

Labor 37-40 | Liberal 4-8 | Greens 0 | One Nation 0 | Independent 2-6

Prediction 2 (Exact):

Labor 38 | Liberal 4 | Greens 0 | One Nation 0 | Independent 5

In terms of what I'm predicting, I think Labor will take Morialta, Heysen, Unley, Ngadjuri, Morphett, Colton, Hammond, and one of either Bragg or Schubert from the Liberals. I also think they'll take Stuart off Geoff Brock. In terms of Independents, I think Fraser Ellis and Nick McBride, Narungga and MacKillop respectively, will survive, while Lou Nicholson (Finniss), Matt Schultz (Kavel), and Travis Fatchen (Mount Gambier) will win the seats they are contesting. The Liberals will only hold 4 seats, Flinders and Chaffey obviously, one of Bragg or Schubert, and Hartley. I don't know, for some reason I have a gut feeling about Tarzia.

Looking at the Legislative Council, that one's far easier to predict. 

Labor 5 | Liberal 2 | Greens 1 | One Nation 2 | Other 1 (SA Best)

Labor will take 5 seats, the Liberals and One Nation 2 (One Nation's swing here will mean far more), and the Greens 1. The last seat is going to be the doozy. It'll entirely be based on preference flows, surplus, and exclusions. This means that, in my opinion, Labor, the Liberals, Greens, and One Nation could all be in play. However, I think there are a couple minor parties, namely Legalise Cannabis, SA Best, and Family First who could hit the 4%/5% needed to get a seat off preference flows. If you had to put a gun to my head, I'd say SA Best is going to win the seat, but Legalise Cannabis could very well be a dark horse (as could Chris McDermott, Fair Go is very high on so many HTV cards and as much as him and Game whine, he is still on their ballot). 

From this point, I'm going to discuss my predictions for every seat. Some of these will be single lines, others will be far longer. 

Seat Predictions

Adelaide

This is an interesting seat for the sole reason that Keiran Snape is running in it. If he was not, I would say that Lucy Hood (ALP) would retain with a landslide and that the story would really be if the Greens managed to eclipse the Liberals. As it stands, I can't see Snape getting below 10%, hes a very active figure within the district and has latched onto key issues such as the Parklands and racing events which have a sustained (though not large) group of supporters. His candidacy means that Hood's and the Green's potential growth in voters will be stymied, though I don't think but massive amounts as he's also likely taking from the Liberals. I do also want to see how many people vote for wanted man Aoi Baxter (ON) now that he's been disendorsed by the party. If he gets double digits still, that will be hilarious.

Lucy Hood (ALP) Retains

Badcoe

Very bluntly, Stinson wins. Not much to see here.

Jayne Stinson (ALP) Retains

Black

This seemed like a very straightforward race until David Speirs decided to return from political exile. Fundamentally, his existence in this seat only really makes sense if a pocket dimension filled with extra votes is funnelled to him, otherwise its just going to lead to the One Nation/Liberal/Speirs vote cannabilising itself. If I assume that the majority of Speirs' vote is going to come from Liberal voters, than the question becomes, what happens when you add One Nation to that mix? In any case, I don't see Speirs winning this seat, he's too toxic after what happened and not enough Labor voters will be enticed by him. The 2PP will be mightly interesting, but I think, considering that Speirs is positioning himself as a sensible 'independent', the majority of One Nation votes will flow to the Liberals, giving them enough to beat Speirs.

Alex Dighton (ALP) Retains

Bragg

Perhaps its just my inherent disbelief that someone who has lost 4 elections could win one, but I do not see Rick Sarre (ALP) taking this seat from Jack Batty. Batty is perhaps one of the better operators in the Liberal Party, and Sarre is, well, not that as a candidate. Batty will hold, but it's going to be close.

Jack Batty (LIB) Retains

Chaffey

The sovereign republic of Chaffey under supreme leader Tim Whetstone is not falling at this election. It would take a monumental swing to completely kneecap Whetstone, and I fundamentally can't see that happening, despite polls suggesting One Nation is hitting 40% in regional districts.

Tim Whetstone (LIB) Retains

Cheltenham

Another straightforward seat, Joe Szackas of Labor is not facing any significant threat.

Joe Szackas (ALP) Retains

Colton

Shockingly, I don't think Aria Bolkus (ALP) is going to lose here (sarcasm on the shockingly). Bec Sutton (LIB) isn't a bad opponent, but this isn't an election where even good Liberal candidates can beat Labor.

Aria Bolkus (ALP) Wins

Croydon

Its the premier's seat. He isn't losing. The thing of interest here is to see if Malinauskas, whose been relatively hands off with Croydon for the last 4 years, will lose votes to the Greens and SA Socialists. I've heard Socialists predicting everything from a handful of votes to 15%, but I think anything over 4% would be a respectable showing for them. Do I think Malinauskas is going to go backwards on primary vote share? Yes, but not by much.

Peter Malinauskas (ALP) Retains

Davenport

I'm going to feel like a broken record soon, but I think this another clear case of Labor wins lol. Maybe Photakis, whose a perennial candidate, can pull a higher vote than expected, but I am not certain of it.

Erin Thomson (ALP) Retains

Dunstan

If this were a normal election, I'd be interested to see how Anna Finizio (LIB) and Ian McBryde (IND) do, both seem relatively competent in an area that could see a swing. However, it's not a normal election, its a Labor landslide with a Liberal kneecapping, so the results probably won't appear for those two. Interested to see how Ricci Stanley (FG) does, considering she is now Fair Go's 'longest'-running candidate (she's been around for 2-3 months).

Cressida O'Hanlon (ALP) Retains

Elder

Shawn van Groesen isn't a terrible candidate, but Nadia Clancy just isn't losing this one.

Nadia Clancy (ALP) Retains

Elizabeth

This is an interesting seat because plenty of people are predicting that Kym Hanton (ON) is likely to make it into the 2pp. I fundamentally do not believe he will. His campaign has been poorly managed, and while he may certainly do slightly better than the Liberals on primary votes, the vast majority of preferences will flow to them over One Nation in my opinion. It'll be close, but he won't be number 2. At the same time, there's alot of discussion around Ella Shaw and her ability to replace Odenwalder. I think she's at a disadvantage, considering Odenwalder was very well-liked and he hasn't done much campaigning with her, but I still think she'll gain alot from that overall.

Ella Shaw (ALP) Wins

Enfield

Everything I've heard about Lawrence Ben (ALP) tells me that he is not a good candidate. His campaign is seemingly disorganised, he himself isn't the best with strategic direction, and his background reeks of favouritism in why he got selected. None of this will be enough to stop him, and quite frankly, he is still far better than the 'destroyer of stupol' Oscar Ong (LIB). Most interesting part of this seat will be seeing whether Leila Clendon (SA Socialists) will get an amount above 2%.

Lawrence Ben (ALP) Wins

Finniss

Last election, Lou Nicholson (IND) came within 350 votes of beating David Basham for the seat in the 2 candidate preferred race. This election, she will beat him. The Liberal's downfall alongside Labor's declining primary vote are both massive gains for Nicholson, especially considering that last election, when Labor had a 40% primary vote, their candidate for this seat only hit 23%. As long as Nicholson stays around the 20% mark, she'll win, and I think a significant amount of Liberal voters will flow to her. I'll also note that Labor's candidate, Phoebe Reddington, is barely a candidate at all (she's incredibly new to electoral politics, was announced quite late, and as far as I know is running a relatively  quiet campaign), so I doubt she'll be getting too much of a swing.

Lou Nicholson (IND) Wins

Flinders

I've seen people predicting that Flinders will go the way of an Independent. While I am big on a few independents at this election, nothing I've seen suggests that Meghan Petherick, Rod Keogh, and Craig Haslam will win. The last two are essentially non-starters, while Petherick will probably end up like Snape in Adelaide, with a good showing but not enough. Same Telfer (LIB) is not losing this seat, it would take a swing of absurd proportions for him to lose it and I just don't see it happening. If he loses, the One Nation swing must've have been historical.

Sam Telfer (LIB) Retains

Florey

This initially looked like quite a boring seat, however, the return of its previous MP, Frances Bedford, has made it somewhat interesting. She's not going to win, her campaign hasn't been high profile enough and she appeared quite late in the game, but she could certainly take primary votes away from both major parties. Look to her to finish third, if not second. 

Michael Brown (ALP) Retains

Gibson

Here's another case of decent contender, wrong election. Jane Fleming (LIB) has been quite the active candidate and in other elections would likely give Sarah Andrews (ALP) a run for her money. Not this election though.

Sarah Andrews (ALP) Retains

Giles

This very well could be the first seat called on the night.

Eddie Hughes (ALP) Retains

Hammond 

In some ways I feel bad for Adrian Pederick (LIB). He's been the member for the seat for the last 20 years, and yet, if you told 99% of people he was an MP, they'd tell you you're lying. I also feel bad for him because he's losing his seat. The rise of One Nation, the absurd amount of candidates, and two notable candidates in Simone Bailey (ALP) and Airlie Keen (IND) give him no chance of retaining. II actually suspect Keen and Bailey will be the 2cp, however, I think Bailey edges Keen out in the end.

Simone Bailey (ALP) Wins

Hartley

As Antony Green said to me last night, "I was once told you need an Italian last name to win Hartley". And while many seem to think this isn't true anymore, I still think it holds water. Vincent Tarzia (LIB) is a known survivor, having beaten Nick Xenophon at his peak (in a three race race that Tarzia was meant to be a distant third in). Furthermore, Jenn Roberts is decidedly not Italian, and her campaign, while active, has not been the best organised from what I've heard. The day may come where Hartley does not elect an Italian, but Saturday won't be that day.

Vincent Tarzia (LIB) Retains

Heysen

This is the seat that the Greens have put all of their eggs into. There is a genuine belief by some that the Greens will, if not win Heysen, at the very least do quite well. I do not hold that belief. I am of the opinion that they won't even come 2nd (and if Andrew Granger was running a more notable campaign, I could see them coming 4th). They might do quite well in primary vote share, but unless Josh Teague has a catastrophic collapse in his primary votes and the Greens do excellently (as in, Teague loses 10% and the Greens gain 10%), them coming 2nd isn't a reality. Teague, on the other hand, is also not going to do as well as he hoped because he's losing his seat.

Marisa Bell (ALP) Wins

Hurtle Vale

Not much to say here. Nat Cook wins lol.

Nat Cook (ALP) Retains

Kaurna

See above, but in this case its Chris Picton wins lol.

Chris Picton (ALP) Retains

Kavel

This might be one of the hardest seats to call. All sense should say that David Leach (ALP) will have this seat in the bag. However, if we consider the fact that Matt Schultz (IND) was endorsed by Kavel's retiring MP Dan Cregan as well as the area's quite popular federal MP Rebekha Sharkie, its created a feeling in my gut that Schultz's got it. The collapse of the Liberal party will only help him, since I think a significant number of voters will go over to him in the seat than One Nation. It'll be between him and Leach, but I think Schultz wins out. Also, Jacob Van Raalte comes last.

Matt Schultz (IND) Wins

King

See earlier Labor regions. Rhiannon Pearce wins lol.

Rhiannon Pearce (ALP) Retains

Lee

David Wilkins has perhaps run the most annoying/obnoxious Labor campaign in this election (do not get me started on the wobbleboarding), but it will work in his favour. He's well-known, seemingly well-liked, and taking over from a decently well-liked Labor member in Stephen Mulligan. He's going to win, while Merlindie Fardone (LIB) becomes another one of those 'wrong election' candidates.

David Wilkins (ALP) Wins

Light

The former seat of Tony Piccolo, Light seems like a place where One Nation or the Liberals could do well. They won't, even though I actually think this seat is more likely to push One Nation into 2nd than Elizabeth (its Gawler people). 

James Agness (ALP) Wins

MacKillop

Nick McBride has been accussed of assault on multiple occasions, and as he seems to enjoy noting, has been wearing an ankle monitor throughout the campaign period. Unfortunately, I do not think that will damage his chances of winning. Mark Braes (ALP) and Rebekah Rosser (LIB) aren't bad candidates, and theoretically this is the perfect seat for Jason Virgo (ON). However, McBridge is just very popular in this area, and I cannot see him losing despite all of his horrible issues.

Nick McBridge (IND) Retains

Mawson

Jenni Mitton (ALP) wins, and I hope Tyler Green (ON, ex-Libertarian) does poorly.

Jenni Mitton (ALP) Wins

Morialta

Scott Kennedy (LIB) is again, another one of those 'in a different election' Liberal candidates. In another time, he'd have a shot, but not in this election. One person who I actually think will do better than expected is Jenn Tranter (GRN), she won't come third but I actually expect she may get close to 15%.

Matthew Marozzi (ALP) Wins

Morphett

I'm going to miss Stephen Patterson's teeth, because he ain't retaining.

Toby Priest (ALP) Wins

Mount Gambier

This is, by far, the hardest seat to call. One poll-shaped objects and a couple news articles seem to think Travis Fatchen (IND) is going to win, and I won't lie, I can't blame them. My gut currently says he will win as well, but don't be surprised if I wake up tomorrow morning and change this. It'll be a tough fight between him and Matthew Key (ALP), and I suspect perhaps SA's closest '4-way race' with Larmona Alexander (LIB) and Anne-Marie Loef (ON) also doing quite well. Who come's second will be very interesting to see on the night, since, in my opinion, that'll be entirely predicated on whose out 4th.

Travis Fatchen (IND) Wins

Narungga

Fraser Ellis (IND) retains though I do think One Nation shenanigans here could make this seat abit weird (in that they may come 3rd, or even 2nd).

Fraser Ellis (IND) Retains

Newland

In my eyes, Olivia Savvas (ALP) is potentially the next leader of the Labor party. She's a good operator, intelligent, and well-liked. That being said, there's no way she's losing this seat, although Sarai Birch (LIB) is yet again another one of the 'not at this election' Liberals.

Olivia Savvas (ALP) Retains

Ngadjuri

The only place where two sitting members, Tony Piccolo (ALP) and Penny Pratt (LIB) are fighting for the one seat with Piccolo having moved over from Light. I think this was a good choice, as he's very likely to win this. 

Tony Piccolo (ALP) Wins

Playford

John Fulbrook (ALP) wins lol.

John Fulbrook (ALP) Retains

Port Adelaide

This is a massive field of candidates, and imo, it'll be a bloodbath in the lower areas. Claire Boan (IND) joining the race makes things tricky as does Gary Johnson (IND). With Labor MP Susan Close retiring from this seat, it seems like it should be a win for Cheyne Rich (ALP), and I think it will be, but I think Boan, Johnson, Scott Anderson (LIB), and Hayden Shaw (GRN) will do quite well as well. Anderson in particular is another case of 'in a different election maybe'. Joel Hendrie (ON) may do well, but I personally hope he does terribly. One final interesting bit for Port Adelaide is Anne McMenamin (IND) whose a part of Socialist Alliance. It will be interesting to see if an Independent Socialist not aligned with SA Socialists will get above last.

Cheyne Rich (ALP) Wins

Ramsay

Zoe Bettison (ALP) has got this in the bag. 

Zoe Bettison (ALP) Retains

Reynell

See above (isn't funny to make the same joke twice?).

Katrine Hildyard (ALP) Retains

Schubert

Ashton Hurn (LIB), by all accounts, should probably be able to hold this seat. Her opponent is a 21-year old Uni Student whose here mostly for experience. Yet, I think becoming leader of the Liberal party is going to be her downfall. People don't like the party, and I think that will reflect on her immensely in the result. She'll go down fighting, but it won't be enough.

James Rothe (ALP) Wins

Stuart

As both Antony and I stated last night, Geoff Brock (IND) winning this seat last election was a miracle for him. That miracle won't happen again. His primary vote share will be eaten into by Labor and One Nation, and there's just nothing he can do about it. Doesn't help that David Ewings (ALP) is actually a competent and good candidate.

David Ewings (ALP) Wins

Taylor

Nick Champion (ALP) wins lol.

Nick Champion (ALP) Retains

Torrens

Meagan Spencer (ALP) is running quite a strong campaign, and in my opinion none of the candidates going up against her are as decent as candidates as she is. This might actually be a bit of a landslide for Labor.

Meagan Spencer (ALP) Wins

Unley

This is an interesting one because of the existence of Ryan Harrison (IND). Harrison, who was a Labor diehard until he lost pre-selection to a woman, has been quite the strong presence recently. Now, he won't win, but his presence alongside Dylan Kiernan (GRN) and Jason Wilkinson (ON) will change this relatively straightforward seat into abit of a weird one. Don't be shocked if Harrison does decently here.

Alice Rolls (ALP) Wins

Waite

The original news story seat because of Frank Pangallo's move to join the Liberals, I bet these days he wishes he took his chance as a LegCo Independent. He's going to lose, and I actually think it will be a bit of a beating. Look for him to end up below 30%, and maybe even closer to 20%.

Catherine Hutchesson (ALP) Retains

West Torrens

If you need to have an Italian name to win Hartley, you need to be named Koutsantonis to win West Torrens. Tom Koutsantonis (ALP) has this seat until he resigns or dies, and who knows which will come first.

Tom Koutsantonis (ALP) Retains

Wright

This is a boring seat, except for the fact that Carston Woodhouse (LIB) got disendorsed. If enough Liberal voters know and care, we could see something insane happen like Blair Boyer getting 80% of the primary vote, or One Nation actually being competitve in a seat that they have no right to be competitive in. More likely, people still vote for Woodhouse, and I hope its to a point where he comes 2nd, just because that would be hilarious.

Blair Boyer (ALP) Retains

Minor Party Predictions

Animal Justice Party

AJP has slowly becoming a 'significant' minor party (I know its an oxymoron) over the last decade, and this election gives them the chance to continue winning seats across the country. Unfortunately for them, I don't think this election will another success for them. They'll fall short of getting a seat in the Legislative Council, though don't be shocked if they get close (somewhere between the 14th to 12th zone).

Highest Lower House Result: 4.5%

Legislative Council Result: 3%

Australian Family Party

Another minor party who, according to the polls, is in with a shot this year. I don't think that shots true, as I think much of their vote is going to be cannibalised by One Nation. They have got candidates in every seat though, so there's a chance one does better than a couple percent (highly unlikely though).

Highest Lower House Result: 2.5%

Legislative Council Result: 1.5%

Family First

The more likely of the two Family parties to recieve a decent result, I think Family First have the same issue as the AFP. Their vote, fundamently, will be eaten into by One Nation (and also by the other family party). Maybe Deepa Mathew gets in the LegCo by the skin of her teeth, but I could see so many other options before her for the 11th seat.

Highest Lower House Result: 4%

Legislative Council Result: 3%

Jing Lee Better Community

This community is just Jing Lee, and despite the decieving amount of corflutes she has up, she ain't going to be doing much this election.

Highest Lower House Result: N/A

Legislative Council Result: 1%

Legalise Cannabis

The ultimate single issue party (besides One Nation), Legalise Cannabis is running a pretty broad campaign in SA then in other years. Fundamentally, they're a party pushing a want that most people are fine with, and for alot of disaffected voters, they're an easy party to put your no.1 preference behind. I don't think they'll get enough to win a LegCo seat this year, but it may be very close.

Highest Lower House Result: 3%

Legislative Council Result: 4%

Nationals

The Nationals aren't a force in SA, and even though this new group of Nationals has an actually 'okay' policy list and a eh group of candidates, they're going to be run over by every single other right-wing party in the state. Maybe they do okay in Flinders, but that's a seat that seems like it'll be hell.

Highest Lower House Result: 2%

Legislative Council Result: 1%

Sarah Game Fair Go for Australia

Before Chris McDermott left the party and trashed it, I thought Fair Go could be abit of a dark horse. Now, considering the fact that Sarah Game is literally putting out paid advertisements on facebook telling people to not preference her party (and further down, to vote 1 under the line for her no.2 candidate), I think the party's hopes are completely gone. It will be interesting to see how well McDermott does, especially considering that Fair Go are rather high on multiple parties' how to vote cards.

Highest Lower House Result: 2.5%

Legislative Council Result: 2%

Stephen Pallaras Real Change SA

Always a hard one to pick considering the party is mostly centrist except for its 'abolish parole' policies, I think there is a good chance it does well. I don't think many of its candidates will, but it could go decently far in the LegCo, though Pallaras will not be getting in.

Highest Lower House Result: 1.5%

Legislative Council Result: 2%

SA-Best

Ever since Connie Bonaros called Cory Bernardi a malaka, I've been big on SA-Best. I think Bonaros has run a decent campaign, and the fact that she has 4 additional LegCo candidates and a lower house candidate suggests she think she has a chance. I hope and predict she'll win her seat back, but nothing more.

Highest Lower House Result: 2%

Legislative Council Result: 5%

United Voice Australia Party

A title that should really read "Mark Aldridge's Cookers United Party", UVAP is probably going to do the worst out of all the parties. His candidates are terrible, his campaign is terrible, he keeps going on facebook talking about how bad everything is doing. There's just no hope here. In fact, the other day Mark posted saying he's fucked up finances for the party, and unless the party gets a good primary vote result, things ain't looking good. And so, I'll make the extra prediction that not a single UVAP candidate will get their deposit back.

Highest Lower House Result: 1.5%

Legislative Council Result: 1%

The 2026 SA State Election Policy Tracker

Hello! This tracker is all about the policies each party/candidate has announced for the 2026 State Election! It's meant to both help me keep track of them all for my eventual election guide and provide an easy way to see what different parties are promising over time. To note, I will only include policies with an actionable idea within them, none of this "we will lower the cost of living" stuff. Everyone wants to do that, tell us how. 

Labor

$500mil Government Guarantee Fund for CBD Developments: The policy would see the government serve as the guarantor for up to 50% of apartments in CBD developments. Specifically, the government would step in if apartments were unsold by developers due to a lack of market interest, with the government buying the apartments for a 10% discount from the market rate. Developers would be required to pay a $50,000 fee to be established under the guarantee and would pay an annual fee of 1% should they call in the guarantee. The government has stated that any one project's guarantee will be capped at $30m.

$200mil Investment into Mt Barker: This policy would see a Labor government spend around $200mil on Mt Barker's infrastructure. This includes a $96mil development of Mt Barker High School, plans to purchase land for a second high school in the region, a 24/7 pharmacy, a $25.5mil TAFE Trades workshop, and an $80mil upgrade to Adelaide Rd, including adding traffic lights and a turning lane to the Adelade Rd and Hawthorn Rd intersection.

IVF Rebate: A Labor government would provide $4,000 worth of rebates to families and women undertaking IVF treatments in the state. These rebates would cover two cycles of IVF, $2,000 per, and would also include a $250 pre-IVF fertility testing rebate.

Three Strike Crime Rule: The Labor government's change would see offenders aged 14 or older, who had committed 3 serious crimes, labelled as a 'recidivist young offender' and have a presumption against bail put against them.

Build 3 Technical Colleges for $150mil: Labor has announced that it will build 3 new technical colleges at a price of $150mil in total should it win the 2026 election. 2 will be built within Metro Adelaide while the third is slated for Regional SA.

'Earn While They Learn' Teaching Pathway: Labor has announced that it will establish an 'earn while they learn" pathway for teaching students at university. This pathway will allow teaching students to begin working in education from the start of their degree, working as part-time support staff for the first two years and as teachers with a teaching mentor from the 3rd year onwards.

Create 1300 new aged care beds: Labor has announced that it will seek to transform the current Women's and Children's Hospital into an aged care precinct with over 600 beds. It will also aim to establish a $250 interest-free loan fund for aged care providers to build 750 beds.

Extend the Metrocard Zone to Murray Bridge: Labor has announced it will extend the Metrocard Zone to Murray Bridge while also increasing bus routes to Mount Barker, adding 15 weekday and 10 weekend services.

Build 3 new mental health assessment units ($96mil): Labor will build 3 new mental health assessment units at the Royal Adelaide, Lyell McEwin, and Noarlunga Hospitals. The first, built at the RAH, is expected to cost $32mil, with the next two likely costing similar.

 Local School Upgrades: Labor has promised to spend $10mil to build Autism inclusive school facilities such as inclusive classrooms/playgrounds and sensory areas. They have also promised to spend $8mil building a new hall for Brighton Primary school, $3.4mil modernising Unley Primary school, and $10mil upgrading Sheidow Park school.

Liberal

50c Public Transport: The Liberal Party have promised 50c public transport fares and an Adelaide Metro Bus service from the city to Murray Bridge as part of a $240m plan to boost commuter numbers and tackle the cost of living crisis.

Police Attraction and Retention Plan: This plan would see multiple, $20,000 incentives established to both entice new and old officers into the South Australian police force. The incentives would include a $20,000 recruitment bonus for experienced interstate/overseas police officers to move and work in SA, a $20,000 bonus for police officers who've left the force in the past 4 years to return, and $20,000 off HECS debts for new police recruits. There is also another $20,000 bonus on offer for police officers with 20+ years of servce. On top of this, the Liberals have promised a $560,000 investment to the police mental health framework.

Round the Regions SANFL: Liberal candidate for Mount Gambier, Lamorna Alexander, has begun pushing for SANFL games to be played in the regions. While the SE Voice's account singles out Mt Gambier specifically, Alexander has said her discussions with the SANFL are around a "Round the Regions concept", which would see an entire SANFL round played in regional centres. Alexander has made the comparison to Gather Round, stating that SANFL games could bring considerable tourism to SA's regions.

$40mil Plan to Build 4,000 Pre-Fabricated Homes: This new policy would see the party pledge $40million towards the production of 4,000 pre-fabricated/modular homes in the state by 2032. The party claims that the homes can be built faster than other types of construction, and as such could be a solution towards the state's housing crisis.

One Strike Bail Rule: The Liberals have announced a new crime policy, which would include a $40mil fund for early intervention/rehabilitation programs, and a new 'one strike' rule for people who commit crimes while on bail. The 'one strike' rule has been described as a "tough new break your bail, go to jail legislation" which would extend further than the Malinauskas Labor government's proposed 3 strike changes.

Abolish Stamp Duty: The party has proposed a plan to abolish stamp duties by 2041, and in the short term adjust the brackets for stamp duty within the next 5 years. As noted by The Advertiser, Stamp Duty brings in "$1.6billion each year" to the state. The Liberals have stated no new tax, such as a land tax, would be added to replace it, instead looking towards the economy growing through South Australians having more money in their pockets.

Women's and Children's Hospital Policy: A Liberal government would keep the current Women's and Children's Hospital site as a health precinct, as opposed to current plans for it to be developed into real estate. The policy would see at least 300 beds kept in the precinct, likely to be used as a 'transition facility' for patients no longer in need of acute care.

Liberal Racial Vilification Act Policy: A Liberal government intends to strengthen the Summary Offences & Racial Vilification Acts, increasing the penalty for racial vilification from 3 to 5 years and adding in a new anti-racial vilification offence. It would also look to outlaw slogans such as “globalise the Intifada” and “from the River to the Sea”.

$300mil increase in funding for SA's roads: The Liberals have announced that they will increase current funding for SA's roads by $300mil, leaving the total investment for SA's roads at $1bn, with funds specifically focusing on road maintenance.

$120mil investment into school upgrades/maintenance: The Liberals have announced that they will spend $120mil on upgrading and maintaining schools across SA, with the money intended to provide new facilities such as playgrounds and fix infrastructure needs.

$124mil investment into Mt Barker/Hill's roads: The Liberal party has announced $124mil worth of upgrades for roads around Mt Barker and in the Hills. This includes a $20mil upgrade to the Flaxley Rd-Hurling Dr intersection, an $80mil upgrade to the Adelaide Rd-Hawthorn Rd intersection, expanding Keoride to Brukunga, Dawesley, Meadows, Macclesfield, & Echunga, adding a third lane to the South Eastern Freeway between Hahndorf and Bridgewater, and establishing a Park and Ride at Verdun.

Stamp Duty Concession: The Liberal Party will provide a $15,000 concession on Stamp Duty for South Australian's over 55 who are downsizing into a home worth less than $1.2mil.

Local Community upgrades: The Liberal Party will provide $1mil to redevelop Sturt Bowling Club, $2.5mil to develop Kensington's Regal Theatre, $1.25mil to build safety upgrades at the Whispering Wall, and build 100 additional car parks at Paradise Park'n'Ride.

Greens

$759mil City Tram Extension: The policy focuses on extending the city tram network to the inner suburbs of North Adelaide and Norwood, with the potential of an extension to Prospect. The SA Greens have claimed the new plan would cost ~$759m, including a $60m upgrade to the King William Rd Bridge over the River Torrens.

In detail, the policy would see the trams extending beyond the river into North Adelaide, gaining stops at Adelaide Oval, the old Women's and Children's Hospital, Archer Street, and the Piccadilly Cinema. Adelaide's free tram zone would also extend into North Adelaide. Meanwhile, in Norwood, 5 new tram stops would be created. One on the corner of Rundle Rd and East Tce, one at Rundle St in Kent Town, one at Sydenham St, Norwood Oval, and at Norwood Place. The Greens have also suggested that the North Adelaide tram would be phase 1 of an expansion into Prospect, and that SA buy 12 new trams to bring wait times down to 10 minutes on all routes.

$6.7bn Housing Policy: This includes building 20,000 public homes over 4 years, clearing out the public housing maintenance backlog, long-term rent caps, and establishing a commissioner for the protection of tenant rights. Perhaps the most significant part of the policy set would see the SA Housing Trust re-established as a "publicly owned builder" able to both construct new public homes and maintain current ones, rather than utilising private contractors.

As mentioned, their policies also included a new commissioner. This commissioner, described as the Commissioner for Rental Tenancies, would have powers and a role based on a similar model in Victoria. The Commissioner would be able to investigate renters' rights infringements and enact penalties if infringements were found at rental properties.

Finally, Robb Simms MLC has stated that the policy set would also include long-term rent caps. These rent caps would see new laws established, restricting rent increases to the CPI and only allowing them to occur once every two years.

$382mil Plan for Climate, Energy, and the Environment: The plan includes a plan to phase out gas power/appliances, end subsidies for businesses like Santos, and stop all gas exploration permits. Other components of the policy include the potential to return the Energy Trust of South Australia to public ownership, creating a resource efficency fund, $200 million dollars to protect marine environments and address the algal bloom, and support for the Adelaide Park Lands and Mt Lofty Ranges to become UNESCO World Heritage listed sites. Finally, the Greens would also plan to legislate a net-zero target of 2035, under their latest policies.

Stating that households could save up to $500 a year from the electrification of their household appliances, the Greens have noted that the phasing out of gas appliances will see households incentivised to electrify and join virtual power plants. This would be done through a Sustainable Household Fund, which would provide homeowners and landlords with low-interest loans to electrify their appliances.

Looking to companies like Santos, the Greens would also work to introduce pathways to transition gas workers from their current jobs to jobs paying equal amounts. The Greens have also stated that they would seek to end the sponsorship of events like the Tour Down Under by Santos.

End Pokie Machines in Pubs by 2030: The plan includes a 65% flat tax rate on all Pokie machines alongside the Betting Operations Tax being raised to 30%.

In addition, the party has stated that it seeks to create a $400mil transition fund for venues which would look to invest and encourage music and events within them, helping to offset lost revenue. Finally the party has said that it will seek to establish an independent panel and commission which will enact the aforementioned taxes and develop a Pokies buyback scheme, as well as enact a moratorium on new machines.

- End public school fees and introduce free public school meals: The Greens have announced that they will seek to end current public school fees, such as materials and subject fees (to the cost of $240mil). They also seek to introduce free and universal breakfast and lunch programs at every state primary and secondary school.

One Nation

Ban the Burning of the Australian Flag: One Nation has announced that, if elected, it will make the burning of any Australian or South Australian flag a crime punishable by fine.

Nationals

Remove Third-Storey restrictions in Metro Adelaide: The Nationals have announced that they would remove all third-storey development restrictions across Metro Adelaide, allowing three-storey housing developments to be built across the city.

'Royalties for Regions' fund: The Nationals have announced that they would provide 30% of mining royalties for regional towns to be used to fund expanding 'enabling' housing infrastructure such as roads, pipes, and supply lines. This fund would be available for 10 years.

Phase out of Pokies across SA: The Nationals have announced that they will seek to eliminate pokies across the state through a mandatory government buyback scheme which would see 20% of pokies removed every year until pokies only remained at the Adelaide Casino.

SA Socialists

Public Transport Overhaul (Free Public Transport + Turn Up and Go Model): The SA Socialists have revealed a number of public transport policies they will take into the 2026 South Australian state election. These include: making all Adelaide Metro services free, waiving all currently outstanding fines for travelling without a valid ticket, and establishing a 'turn up and go' model for Adelaide Metro public transport.

The latter would see all forms of public transport (bus, train, tram) have their frequency increased to the point where passengers, at peak hours, can simply turn up to a tram/train station or bus stop and go, rather than having to wait for a specific timetabled vehicle to arrive. As noted in the state government's 2025 transportation strategy report, 3% of South Australians have access to a 'turn up and go' service within a 5-minute walk of their home, while 70% of South Australians have to wait over 15 minutes for a service. This style of public transportation exists in Brisbane, with the maximum wait time for metro services on weekdays being 5 minutes on paper, while it has been trialled in Sydney and Melbourne as well. At the same time, the SA Socialists have also stated that they would construct a city rail loop as well.

Sarah Game's Fair Go For Australia

Abolish Local Government/Councils: The party, headed by ex-One Nation MLC Sarah Game, has stated that, if elected, it will seek to abolish local government in its entirety. In doing so, it would transfer all frontline services delivered by councils and local governments to the state government.

Make singing the National Anthem compulsory in Schools: Fair Go will seek to make the singing of the National Anthem in English compulsory at all schools in South Australia.

Build a permanent sand recycling pipeline between Largs Bay and Henley: Fair Go will seek to build a permanent sand recycling pipeline to move sand from Largs Bay/North Haven to Henley and the Southern beaches, replacing the current method of dredging.

United Voice for Australia Party

Nationalise the Torrens Island Power Station and rebuild it as a coal/LPG power plant: The UVAP would seek public ownership of Torrens Island, rebuilt [sic] it to a modern base load plant that can run on our own LPG, coal or any future greener fuel.

Build 3 New Hospitals: Build 3 New Hospitals for SA immediately.

Ban Flag Burning: Legislate that burning any Australian flag is a crime.

Airlie Keen | Independent (for Hammond)

Expand Murray Bridge's Soldiers' Memorial Hospital's Maternity Ward: Make expanding the Hospital's maternity ward a key priority in 2026.

Lou Nicholson | Independent (for Finniss)

Extend the Patient Assisted Transport Scheme to the whole of the Fleurieu Peninsula: The Patient Assisted Transport Scheme is a current government subsidy scheme which provides travel subsidies for persons who travel over 100km to recieve essential medical care. The Fleurieu Peninsula and Finniss all sit within this 100km range; however, Nicholson argues that the 170km round trip residents of Finniss have to take should be accounted for. If the push is successful, residents of Finniss (which includes within it Goolwa, Hindmarsh Island, Mount Compass, McCracken, Port Elliot, and Victor Harbor) would be able to make Patient Assisted Transport subsidy claims for the treatment they require from Adelaide hospitals.

Cody Scholes | Independent (for Mt Gambier)

Repeal SA's Voice to Parliament: If elected, Scholes will introduce a bill to parliament seeking to repeal SA's Voice to Parliament.

Fines for failing to meet electoral promises: Cody Scholes has announced that, if elected, he will introduce a bill to impose fines on individuals and parties found to have not followed through on election promises. These fines would be a maximum of $10,000 for individuals and $150,000 for parties.

Launch a Parliamentary inquiry into SA Health: Cody Scholes will, if elected, seek to launch a Parliamentary inquiry into SA Health.

Matt Schultz | Independent (for Kavel)

Oppose the sale of Woodside Barracks: If elected, Matt Schultz will oppose the sale of Woodside Barracks.