2026 SA Election Results Analysis - Malislide and Orange Wave

Yesterday's election was one for the history books. The Malislide has came and went, and yet its affects were dampened by the simultaneous appearance of an orange wave. All this has cause catastrophe for the Liberals, but at the same time, they managed to do better in seats than some polls were suggesting. This is all to say that South Australia has become a testing ground for what really happens when the primary votes of the Major Parties falter, and I think its an incredibly interesting thing to examine closer.

Starting broad and making our way in, I think we've got a pretty clear picture now of how SA is turning out numbers-wise. Labor's got 39% of the vote and is on track to win 35 seats, the Liberals have 19% of the vote and will probably take home 5 seats, One Nation has 21.7% of the vote and will win up to 4 seats, while the Greens had 11% for 0 seats (unless Heysen gets really weird, we'll talk about that in a second), and it seems very likely that there will be at least 3 Independents (could be 4 depending on Kavel). These results are playing out in a similar way in the Legislative Council. Labor's won 4 seats, One Nation 2 seats, the Liberals 1 with 1 likely, and the Greens 1 seat with fairly similar vote shares. 2 seats are very much in doubt, though with One Nation on a 2.8 quota I suspect they'll win a 3rd seats, and than it'll actually come down to preferences between Labor, the Greens, and Legalise Cannabis, with Family First having an outside chance. We'll also talk more about the Legislative Council later on, because I think its results are going to massively shape political rhetoric and debates in the years to come. As an aside, pour one out for the loss of Tammy Franks, Jing Lee, and Connie Bonaros, none of them are retaining their seats.

One notable thing, in my opinion, is the fact that One Nation will not be the opposition. While One Nation's surge has met the expectations of the polls, the fact that they will remain SA's third party will massively hurt them over the next 4 years. They need sustained media presence to remain strong, and unless they think they can maintain a surge based on the politics of the moment across 4 years, their strategy of complain without many policies won't work. Don't get me wrong, this result is also horrific for the Liberals, but them remaining opposition will give them the chance to right the ship before 2030, while not being in opposition gives One Nation every chance to completely screw things up. 

Seat Analysis

Narrowing in abit, lets talk about some specific seats. Starting with Adelaide, Labor's held that aggressively, despite 10% of people in the seat voting for 'wanted man on the run' Aoi Baxter (and that isn't coming from pre-polls, people on the day literally voted for him). The biggest story there is Keiran Snape just coming in at 9.5%, just under the 10% I predicted he'd get. Considering he ran a pretty active campaign, one would assume that result isn't as high as he would have hoped, though I doubt this is the last time we'll have seen Snape around.

Black is another one where an Independent has fallen where many predicted they'd rise. "I'd do a line or two" ex-Leader of the Opposition David Speirs has come 4th with 14% of the vote, and while the ABC and poll bludger are predicting Speirs will end up in the 2CP, he would still have to jump the Greens and One Nation (yes, the Liberals are 5th in the seat with a dismal 8.6%). From what I heard of people watching the broadcast, Speirs was having a dismal time on 9 News table during the night. Another seat where the Liberals are having a downright atrocious time is in Croydon. The seat of Premier Malinauskas (who's seeing a 4.5% decrease in his primary vote currently), the Liberals are currently 4th but have the SA Socialists nipping at their heels, with only 70 votes between them. It does seem that the seat is going to become a weird Labor v One Nation seat, though this barely matters in the grand scheme considering 2CP estimates have Malinauskas winning with 75% of the vote.

Moving on to some seats which were looking weird at the start of the night, we've got Elizabeth, Finniss, and Flinders. Elizabeth is firmly with Labor now, but, as I mentioned last night on the Tally Room livestream, the choice to select a stupol hack in the seat has come back to bite Labor on the ass, with Ella Shaw seeing a 14% swing against her. Part of this issue can be seen in the Greens getting a 3% swing to them, in a seat that doesn't fit the Greens generally. I'll also note that the Liberals at 5% in the seat, only ~200 votes above Family First and Legalise Cannabis. Finniss, on the other hand, is a very interesting one. Lou Nicholson is 3rd behind the Liberals and One Nation, but despite being 3% behind both (she's on 20.5%), it seems likely she'll win the seat off Bron Lewis', Greens', and Labor's preferences. This is one of the few seats where Labor is coming 4th, with only 17% of the vote, so Labor will certainly need to look at what they've done wrong there in the coming months. Finally, in Flinders, it seems Telfer has beaten back a rather determined surge by One Nation. With 34% of the vote, the Liberals will keep that seat, and I stand confirmed in my disbelief of Meghan Petherick actually winning the seat (I will be honest, if One Nation didn't contest I think she does win). 

There are a few key seats will in doubt. Hammond, for instance, looks like it'll fall to One Nation, but that entirely relies on how Liberal and Independent preferences fall (I overestimated how well Airlie Keen was going to do, her vote was entirely cannabilised by One Nation it seems). What we do know is that 20-year no brand recognition MP Adrian Pederick is out of that seat, no matter if Labor or One Nation win. Heysen is another seat that's going to massively rely on proper preference counts. Labor and the Liberals are neck andd neck in that race, with the ABC suggesting that there's only 76 votes in the 2PP count, but it is still possible that the Greens manage to come 2nd. That'll entirely depend on how One Nation preferences fall, and while one would imagine that the Greens won't get many One Nation preferences, they do tend to be really weird, and after you take away the significant amount that'll flow to the Liberals, there are likely plenty of One Nation voters who put the major parties last and as such put the Greens above Labor. I don't know if the Greens would win in such a scenario, but I don't think such a scenario is out of view just yet. Kavel also remains in doubt, though I am pretty confident the Independent, Matt Schultz, is going to win. The ABC has the seat in doubt because, depending on preferences, One Nation could leapfrog him, but I am not certain Greens and Liberal preferences will flow heavily enough to them for that to happen. If it does, I think Labor wins based on Schultz's preferences.

As an aside, my hot take of Vincent Tarzia retaining Hartley has been obliterated. Labor's Jenn Roberts took home 37% of the vote, while Tarzia's primary vote share collapsed by 21%, ending on 30% overall. The man who beat Nick Xenophon could not survive the orange wave, though it is notable that One Nation only increased by 15% here, meaning a significant amount of Tarzia's share was spread elsewhere.

Looking at some more regional and of interest seats, MacKillop is likely to fall into One Nation's hands, though it is very close and entirely possible that the Liberals get the seat. Nick McBride, whose comments last night downplayed his assault charges and suggested that him being 'unfairly' seen as guilty caused issue for his campaign, will likely come 4th. Turns out my belief that those in MacKillop would turn a blind eye to his behaviour was wrong, though I highly suspect this is more a result of One Nation's surge than anything McBride did. Mount Gambier, meanwhile, seems to be in the hands of Independent Travis Fatchen (seems my gut feeling the night before was right), though it is a close primary vote race between him and One Nation. Preferences from Labor, the Liberals, and the Greens will get him over the line. Shockingly, Cody Scholes got 6% of the vote, which is a depressing fact. Narungga is a seat from last night that people seemed certain One Nation had one. As it stands right now, the Liberals are leading the 2CP by 200 votes, despite them only having 23% of the primary vote share and One Nation having 37%. Pollbludger has that seat as a One Nation gain, but thats going off an Independent v One Nation 2cp which I don't think is going to happen anymore. Another interesting seat from the election is Ngadjuri. Currently, One Nation is in the lead there, but that entirely depends on whether Labor the Liberals are excluded first (at this point it seems the Liberals will be, giving One Nation the win). Either way, it seems Tony Piccolo's move to the seat was very poorly decided, though in Antony Green's words, it does give him the excuse to retire. Finally, looking at Stuart, it seems Geoff Brock has retained the seat and my hot take (slightly misinformed by me misreading the 3cp from last election) was wrong. 

To round off, I've got a couple seats that are of interest to me. Labor will hold Port Adelaide, and Claire Boan has soundly been seen off, coming third with 14% of the vote. True Blue Crew member Joel Hendrie got 20% of the vote, which is dire scenes, while Socialist Alliance Independent Anne McMenamin got 1.6% of the vote to come 8th. Meanwhile, in Schubert, Hurn held her seat despite my doubts, and actually didn't lose much of her primary vote. On the 2CP, she is actually up 10%, though that comes down to Labor finishing 3rd (turns out a 21yr old uni student isn't a good pick in elections like this). Stopping at Unley for a quick second, Ryan Harrison only finished on 4.4%, though I think that won't stop him from trying again in the future, while in Waite, watchdog Frank Pangallo is going to lose and may even come third considering the fact that the Greens are right on his tail (both being on 16.7%). Lastly, in Wright, 8.5% of people voted for Carston Woodhouse despite him being disendorsed nearly a week prior to the election, though that did see a 23% swing away from the Liberals in the seat.

Legislative Council

As I've mentioned, we've got a pretty good look at how the Legislative Council will end up. The 2nd to last seat is pretty much determined as well, with One Nation's Rebecca Hewett taking it. The 11th seat is going to be a battle between Labor, the Greens, and Legalise Cannabis, with each on a quota of .36, .38, and .31. Preference flows will be vital there, and we probably won't know the winner until one of the three are excluded. 

One thing to note with the Legislative Council is that, this result very likely means that the anti-abortion bill will be back. Tammy Franks, Jing Lee, and Connie Bonaros all voted against the previous bill, and while Franks is technically being replaced by the Greens with Melanie Selwood, Jing Lee is being replaced by a One Nation candidate. If One Nation gets 3 seats, the 11th seat becomes crucial, especially consdering that Labor's 5th candidate, Claire Scriven, is a known anti-abortion politician, whereas the Greens candidate is pro-abortion (Legalise Cannabis' Jessica Nies is an unknown quantity). Should Scriven get in, that would make the anti-abortion cohort in the Legislative Council 10 (not 11 as Frank Pangallo is also out), with Ben Hood, Dennis Hood, Sarah Game, Scriven, Tung Ngo, Heidi Girolamo, Nicola Centofanti, and the 3 One Nation candidates making it up. On the flip side, the pro-abortion cohort would be around 9-10, depending on where Hilton Gumbys sits and whether Laura Henderson/Reggie Martin end up having to pair off again. As such, there seems to be the potential for the anti-abortion bill getting through the upper house, though if it was likely I could see Malinauskas putting his foot down and forcing Labor to vote against it to save the party from having to deal with that in the lower house.

Minor Parties

This election has been hell for SA's minor parties, with many becoming the largest casualties to the Orange Wave. In the lower house, Family First has dropped 2%, while every other minor party stagnated. Only Legalise Cannabis did okay, with 1% of the vote, though that is because this is the first time they've ran lower house candidates in SA. Its just as bad in the upper house, with Family First dropping 1% and the rest doing quite poorly. Once again, Legalise Cannabis is the only real winner amongst the bunch. 

Something key to note is that these poor results are going to be horrific for parties like Family First. The party put forward a significant amount of candidates, over 30, and yet slide back in vote percentage by over half of what it got in 2022. Its probably common sense, but they're just too similar to One Nation. Even worse off is the Australian Family Party. While this wont hold, they're barely looking at an average of over 100 votes per candidate, considering they ran candidates in every single seat. Bob Day has firmly been rejected (its actually worse when you consider he stated he was running with the support of 6 other minor parties). The story is the same for Fair Go for Australia and Real Change SA, with very poor showings throughout the entire state. The worst result though is United Voice Australia, Mark Aldridge's party. With 14 candidates, they're only just above 100 votes per candidate, and I don't think that'll actually increase by much as counting continues. Mark's spent the last 12 hours ranting and ravving, claiming he's going to retire, but the reality is when you run a campaign with 0 policies, no name or face candidates, and no publicity, you aren't going to get votes anywhere. 

2026 SA State Election Live Thread

Welcome to my 2026 SA State Election Live Thread! This is my first time doing one of these for an election, so it's going to be abit of an experiment. I'll be updating this thread throughout the night with results and other news. I'll also be keeping track of my own predictions here. Finally, from 7pm-7:30pm I will be on Ben Raue's The Tally Room's election night livestream, so be sure to check me out there! 

I'll obviously be keeping an eye out for the major stories of the night, things like how many seats Labor gets, whether One Nation finishes 2nd anywhere (or god forbid, first). I'll also be looking across the state at key seats, including Mount Gambier, Kavel, Elizabeth, Narungga, and Finniss amongst others, since these are some of the seats where the outcome isn't just Labor Wins Lol. Finally, since I am a bit of a minor-party head, I will be taking the time to look at how minor parties are doing across the night, especially in regards to the SA Socialists, Fair Go for Australia, SA Best, and Legalise Cannabis. 

If you've got any questions or comments, feel free to comment on this post or on the Bluesky post containing the link to this thread and I'll respond once I see it.

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Prediction Tally

Lower House:

Correct ✔ | 

Incorrect ✖ |

Upper House:

Correct ✔ |

Incorrect ✖ |

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Live Updates

11:00pm - Final

Counting seems to be slowing down tonight, so here's abit of a recap. As it stands, the ABC has Labor on 30 and the Liberals on 4, with Labor having 38% of the vote, One Nation 21%, Liberals 18%, and the Greens 12%. Pollbludger has Labor on 33 seats, the Liberals on 4, One Nation on 1, and 1 Independent, with Labor having 38% of the vote, the Liberals 19%, One Nation 21%, and the Greens 12%. Alot of counting still to do, and even more around preferences, so we won't know the true final results for a while. Tonight has shown that the polls were pretty right with One Nation, but even that large result won't be enough for them to become the opposition. 

Seats to keep watching include MacKillop, Narungga, Mount Gambier, Kavel, Finniss, and Hammond. 

Thats it for me tonight, I've got a party to keep enjoying! Thank you for keeping up with me tonight, I hope you found my updates and presence on the Tally Room's livestream enjoyable and informative! 

10:35pm

Ngadjuri is an interesting seat this late in the night. It seems Tony Piccolo's choice to move to the seat has failed him. He's coming third and I doubt the 4.4% from the Greens will be enough for him to surpass One Nation to come 2nd. With him 3rd, I think its very likely Penny Pratt wins the seat, being one of the few Liberals to have a good showing despite a One Nation surge.

10:15pm

Narungga is now in doubt, with ABC predicting that the Liberals are actually ahead right now. Pollbludger has the seat as a ON Gain, but it does seem that this seat will need a good old manual preference count until we really know. Another seat where this has happened is Hammond. Pollbludger has it as ON Ahead, while ABC is uncertain of who will even come 2nd. I think its likely this seat will be a Labor v One Nation seat, and in that case I think it may go to Labor.

10:07pm

Mawson continues the trend of this outer-urban seats being weird. Labor's first with 37%, One Nation is 2nd with 26%, while the Greens and Liberals are fighting over third which around 15% each. Labor will win this seat quite handily, but its showing that One Nation may have some sway in these outer-urban areas, and that the Greens have more interest than the Liberals in those same spots.

9:50pm

Looks like the ABC isn finally confirming an Independent win in Kavel, same with pollbludger. This is quite good for my predictions (which may be suffering elsewhere right now. It is probably a seat that won't be probably called without days of counting, considering that from the Greens to Labor there's only 11% in it with 5 candidates in that range, so that'll be interesting. This has just changed to IND Likely again, can the ABC make up its mind?

9:35pm

In a short update, the SA Socialists are currently beating the Liberals in Croydon (7.5% to 7.2%), meaning the Liberals are 5th in that seat. Genuinely insane, don't think anyones predicted this.

9:30pm

Taylor is starting to look like an interesting seat. The ABC, but not the Pollbludger site, is suggesting that One Nation may be winning the 2CP. I'm not sure how, Labor is on 41% while One Nation is on 29.7%, and with the Greens on 10.6% I can't see One Nation's path to victory here. But the ABC suggests there is one, so keep an eye here.

9:20pm 

One of the most interesting 'basic' Liberal vs Labor seats right now is Heysen. Josh Teague (LNP) is currently ahead in the primary vote with 31%, while Marisa Bell (ALP) is coming 2nd with 25%. With the ABCs estimated preferences, Bell is winning the 2pp 51/49, a very close result that very well could change when one considers the fact that the Greens have 23.7% of the vote. The Greens wont come 2nd, One Nation flows will ensure that, but their preferences may swing this even further in Labor's favour.

9:00pm

Looking at the overall state, the One Nation vote is going down as I suspected. They're still on 21% but thats much lower than earlier, and all of that is pretty much coming from the Liberals, who are down 17% (while One Nation is up 18%). Labor on the other hand is down 2%, and I suspect that most of this is going to the Greens who are up 3%. In terms of seats, Labors on 29 in the ABC and the Liberals are on 5, Kavel seems to have gone back to 'in doubt'. Pollbludger meanwhile has 26 Labor, 4 Liberal, 2 One Nation (Hammond and Narungga) and 2 Independents (Kavel and Mount Gambier). Things are firming up right now, but I think its quite clear that the Liberals will remain the opposition, which, in all honesty, could be a massive stumbling block for One Nation's rise in SA. 

Looking at some key seats, Ella Shaw (ALP) is vastly ahead in Elizabeth now, with 42% of the primary vote with 10% of the vote counted. Hanton (ON) is down to 31%, so I think we're at a point where its safe to call it for Labor, especially with the Greens on 11%. Finniss meanwhile continues to be a 3 horse race, with One Nation and the Liberals on the same vote of 23.3% and Lou Nicholson trailing by only 1.5%. Still too close to call, but I think Nicholson probably has it on these results. Mount Gambier continues to be a very interesting seat, with Travis Fatchen on 26.5% and One Nation on 28.7%. That seat is entirely going to come down to 34% of preference flows, which will be an insane thing to watch. Finally, over in Stuart, I'll bow my head and say I got that one wrong, Geoff Brock's got 36% vs One Nation's 28% and I don't think Liberal preferences will give enough to One Nation for them to win. 

8:35pm

Absolutely horrific line from Nick McBridge on the ABC. "My issues have come back to haunt me", the issues being charges of assault against his wife. There was an audible laugh on the ABC broadcast when he said that. I may have predicted wrong, but I am happy he may lose. "My allegations haven't been proven, haven't been substantiated" and now he's complaining about not being presumed innocent. Absolute horror show.

8:25pm

There is one silver lining for the Liberal Party so far, and that is in Bragg. There, Jack Batty has managed to retain against Rick Sarre (making this Sarre's 5th election loss). Batty has 42.7% of the primary vote, so his retain there is certain.

8:15pm

Looking at some interesting candidates, Frank Pangallo in Waite is looking like he'll be coming third in primary votes there below the Greens, though I suspect One Nation preferences will put him into 2nd place overall. In Unley, Ryan Harrsion has crashed and burnt, with only 3.7% of the vote. That seat seems to be almost certainly Labor's win, with Alice Rolls taking that off the Liberals. Daivd Speirs, running in Black, may enter the 2CP race depending on if he can beat out the Greens and One Nation in primaries (its a very close race there with all three on 15%-17%), but he has no chance of winning. Finally, in Finniss, it seems likely that Independent Lou Nicholson will take it, though she is third in the primary vote share on 21.6% with One Nation and the Liberals above here with about 2% more of the vote. I think, if Nicholson keeps it close, preferences from the Independent Bron Lewis, the Greens, and Labor will get her the win.

8:10pm

A seat I have personal interest in, Croydon, is looking interesting. Premier Malinauskas has obviously won the seat, but has done so by losing 5% of his primary vote. The current results, at 11% counted, suggest One Nation will come third with 12%, but it is really close, with the Greens on 9%, Liberals on 8%, SA Socialists on 7.5%, and Family First on 6%. Preference flows from the SA Socialists, which will massively favour the Greens, could have the Greens coming 2nd, for instance, while a 2% swing could see the Socialists come third and take Greens preferences. Very interesting to watch.

8:05pm

Looking at the overall picture, between ABC and Pollbludger there's abit of an interesting different. Polbludger has Labor on 13, Liberals on 2, One Nation on 1, while the ABC has Labor on 20, the Liberals on 3, and an Independent (I assume Matt Schultz in Kavel) on 1. Pollbludger shows Narungga is going to be a One Nation gain, while it seems Kavel and Mt Gambier will go to Independents according to them.

One Nation's primary vote is falling now as urban seats come in, down to 20.7%, only slightly higher than the Liberals who are on 20%. I think its likely that vote falls even lower, to 19%, but only time will tell. 

8:00pm

Looking at a few seats right now in focus, Elizabeth is a very interesting one. Only 1% have been counted, but if Labor and One Nation end up on similar primary votes and the Greens vote of 13% holds, its hard to say that won't be a Labor retain. Mount Gambier on the flip side seems like hell to call, with One Nation and the Independent Travis Fatchen both sitting on 26% with 13% counted. One suspects Fatchen will win based on Liberal and Labor preference flows but we may not know for a very good while. Finally, looking at Chaffey, One Nation and the Liberals are also equal on 35% with 9% counted. It'll be very hard to say which will win, but one has to assume that the Greens and Labor preferences will flow better to the Liberals.

7:50pm

ABC has called the election for Labor. This is not shocking at all. The bigger question will be how much they win by and who ends up coming second.

7:45pm

I've finished up with the Tally Room, and things are looking incredibly spicy! One Nation seems to have gotten the numbers the polls have said they would have, but it hasn't translated into seats just yet. Currently, they're not actually ahead in the 2CP for any seat, but that may very well change as 2CP counts occur. I will say this is looking to be a poor election for Independents and also alot of the Liberals. I don't think either side will be wiped out, but it certainly seems both have lost voters to One Nation. 

Key seats to keep an eye out for include Mt Gambier where it may very well end up being Independent vs One Nation, as well as Chaffey, Elizabeth, and Narungga. 

7:00pm

Our first results are in! Of course, as we always here, they never tell the story of the night. But it is interesting to look at them. 

6:33pm

We're hearing that the ECSA has decided that a few seats have decided on ~a dozen seats where its not being counted as a two party count. Some are sensible, like Kavel where its Independent vs One of the Majors, others aren't in my opinon, such as Schubert being Liberal vs One Nation. It'll be interesting to see if its got these right or not. 

6:00pm

Voting has closed! I think we'll be waiting around 20-30 minutes for results, so we're in that weird period of the night.

3:30pm

Election day is here! With 2.5hrs to go until polls close and counting starts, its time for me to open up this thread. It's pretty beautiful weather here in Adelaide, 23 degrees and sunny, so that may assist with electoral turnout. Vibes on the ground feel pretty normal, my booth had volunteers from the SA Socialists, Greens, Labor, AJP, and the Liberals, as well as A-Frames from Tammy Franks and 'Muslim Votes Matters', so you'd think my seat was some leftist wonderland. A drive around changes this view abit, I've seen other polling places with One Nation, United Voice Australia, and Family First, but it does make my polling location abit of an interesting outlier. I will say that the effects of pre-poll voting are becoming quite clear, I was in and out of the location in 5 minutes with essentially no line. And of course, I got my 2 democracy sausages and solo, so it was good there.

Of course, we've still got a decent bit of time before the election which I'm going to use preparing, but soon, we'll be into the real start of the day. We'll see how much Labor will win by, how badly the Liberals lose, whether the polls are right on One Nation, and which party does the worst in every seat. Keep an eye here because I am going to try and update quite frequently. 

Predictions for the 2026 South Australian State Election

Hi all, this post contains my official predictions for the 2026 South Australian State Election. I'll start with my broad predictions and then move into seat by seat and minor party predictions.

General Predictions

Lets get the big one out of the way. Labor is going to win the election. I don't think there is a single person (besides some One Nation cookers already claiming the election was rigged) in the country who thinks that result is in doubt. 

The real question of course is, by how much are Labor going to win by? The current range of polls since Ashton Hurn became leader of the Liberal party has Labor on a 35% to 44% primary vote and with a much smaller 59%-61% two party preferred vote. The variance between their primary vote and two party preferred is telling of a party who is not loved by all but tolerated by most, considering the lack of any viable alternative. If we take a result of 60% 2PP as the likely outcome for Labor on election night, that would mean a 2PP swing of 5.4% from the results of 2022. 

If we take that swing and apply it to the current margins of seats, we get an absolute horror story for the Liberal Party. They would lose Morialta, Heysen, Unley, Ngadjuri, Hartley, Morphett, Colton, and even Hammond. Only Finniss, Bragg, Schubert, Chaffey, and Flinders would be safe. Of course, a completely uniform swing is unlikely, and this ignores the fact that Finniss and potentially Flinders will be battlegrounds where Independent candidates will play an important role.

Taking a more narrow view, I think its safe to say that Labor will not lose a seat. At the same time, I think Morialta, Heysen, Unley, Ngadjuri, Morphett, and Colton are firmly within Labor's sights. Hartley should be there, but Vincent Tarzia survived Nick Xenophon, so anything is possible. Adrian Pederick in Hammond may well survive by the skin of his teeth. Further up field, I think Finniss will likely go to Lou Nicholson (Independent) while Bragg and Schubert will be far closer than they seem to be now. 

Before we get into numbers, I did want to officially predict that neither One Nation nor the Greens will get a lower house seat. I've heard and seen people predicting these things, it just won't happen. If we were facing a less well-tolerated Labor, maybe things would be different, but we aren't.

In terms of the number's, I am going to do two predictions. Firstly, a range that I think is most likely. And than, because I'm not a coward, I'll give exact numbers.

Prediction 1 (Range):

Labor 37-40 | Liberal 4-8 | Greens 0 | One Nation 0 | Independent 2-6

Prediction 2 (Exact):

Labor 38 | Liberal 4 | Greens 0 | One Nation 0 | Independent 5

In terms of what I'm predicting, I think Labor will take Morialta, Heysen, Unley, Ngadjuri, Morphett, Colton, Hammond, and one of either Bragg or Schubert from the Liberals. I also think they'll take Stuart off Geoff Brock. In terms of Independents, I think Fraser Ellis and Nick McBride, Narungga and MacKillop respectively, will survive, while Lou Nicholson (Finniss), Matt Schultz (Kavel), and Travis Fatchen (Mount Gambier) will win the seats they are contesting. The Liberals will only hold 4 seats, Flinders and Chaffey obviously, one of Bragg or Schubert, and Hartley. I don't know, for some reason I have a gut feeling about Tarzia.

Looking at the Legislative Council, that one's far easier to predict. 

Labor 5 | Liberal 2 | Greens 1 | One Nation 2 | Other 1 (SA Best)

Labor will take 5 seats, the Liberals and One Nation 2 (One Nation's swing here will mean far more), and the Greens 1. The last seat is going to be the doozy. It'll entirely be based on preference flows, surplus, and exclusions. This means that, in my opinion, Labor, the Liberals, Greens, and One Nation could all be in play. However, I think there are a couple minor parties, namely Legalise Cannabis, SA Best, and Family First who could hit the 4%/5% needed to get a seat off preference flows. If you had to put a gun to my head, I'd say SA Best is going to win the seat, but Legalise Cannabis could very well be a dark horse (as could Chris McDermott, Fair Go is very high on so many HTV cards and as much as him and Game whine, he is still on their ballot). 

From this point, I'm going to discuss my predictions for every seat. Some of these will be single lines, others will be far longer. 

Seat Predictions

Adelaide

This is an interesting seat for the sole reason that Keiran Snape is running in it. If he was not, I would say that Lucy Hood (ALP) would retain with a landslide and that the story would really be if the Greens managed to eclipse the Liberals. As it stands, I can't see Snape getting below 10%, hes a very active figure within the district and has latched onto key issues such as the Parklands and racing events which have a sustained (though not large) group of supporters. His candidacy means that Hood's and the Green's potential growth in voters will be stymied, though I don't think but massive amounts as he's also likely taking from the Liberals. I do also want to see how many people vote for wanted man Aoi Baxter (ON) now that he's been disendorsed by the party. If he gets double digits still, that will be hilarious.

Lucy Hood (ALP) Retains

Badcoe

Very bluntly, Stinson wins. Not much to see here.

Jayne Stinson (ALP) Retains

Black

This seemed like a very straightforward race until David Speirs decided to return from political exile. Fundamentally, his existence in this seat only really makes sense if a pocket dimension filled with extra votes is funnelled to him, otherwise its just going to lead to the One Nation/Liberal/Speirs vote cannabilising itself. If I assume that the majority of Speirs' vote is going to come from Liberal voters, than the question becomes, what happens when you add One Nation to that mix? In any case, I don't see Speirs winning this seat, he's too toxic after what happened and not enough Labor voters will be enticed by him. The 2PP will be mightly interesting, but I think, considering that Speirs is positioning himself as a sensible 'independent', the majority of One Nation votes will flow to the Liberals, giving them enough to beat Speirs.

Alex Dighton (ALP) Retains

Bragg

Perhaps its just my inherent disbelief that someone who has lost 4 elections could win one, but I do not see Rick Sarre (ALP) taking this seat from Jack Batty. Batty is perhaps one of the better operators in the Liberal Party, and Sarre is, well, not that as a candidate. Batty will hold, but it's going to be close.

Jack Batty (LIB) Retains

Chaffey

The sovereign republic of Chaffey under supreme leader Tim Whetstone is not falling at this election. It would take a monumental swing to completely kneecap Whetstone, and I fundamentally can't see that happening, despite polls suggesting One Nation is hitting 40% in regional districts.

Tim Whetstone (LIB) Retains

Cheltenham

Another straightforward seat, Joe Szackas of Labor is not facing any significant threat.

Joe Szackas (ALP) Retains

Colton

Shockingly, I don't think Aria Bolkus (ALP) is going to lose here (sarcasm on the shockingly). Bec Sutton (LIB) isn't a bad opponent, but this isn't an election where even good Liberal candidates can beat Labor.

Aria Bolkus (ALP) Wins

Croydon

Its the premier's seat. He isn't losing. The thing of interest here is to see if Malinauskas, whose been relatively hands off with Croydon for the last 4 years, will lose votes to the Greens and SA Socialists. I've heard Socialists predicting everything from a handful of votes to 15%, but I think anything over 4% would be a respectable showing for them. Do I think Malinauskas is going to go backwards on primary vote share? Yes, but not by much.

Peter Malinauskas (ALP) Retains

Davenport

I'm going to feel like a broken record soon, but I think this another clear case of Labor wins lol. Maybe Photakis, whose a perennial candidate, can pull a higher vote than expected, but I am not certain of it.

Erin Thomson (ALP) Retains

Dunstan

If this were a normal election, I'd be interested to see how Anna Finizio (LIB) and Ian McBryde (IND) do, both seem relatively competent in an area that could see a swing. However, it's not a normal election, its a Labor landslide with a Liberal kneecapping, so the results probably won't appear for those two. Interested to see how Ricci Stanley (FG) does, considering she is now Fair Go's 'longest'-running candidate (she's been around for 2-3 months).

Cressida O'Hanlon (ALP) Retains

Elder

Shawn van Groesen isn't a terrible candidate, but Nadia Clancy just isn't losing this one.

Nadia Clancy (ALP) Retains

Elizabeth

This is an interesting seat because plenty of people are predicting that Kym Hanton (ON) is likely to make it into the 2pp. I fundamentally do not believe he will. His campaign has been poorly managed, and while he may certainly do slightly better than the Liberals on primary votes, the vast majority of preferences will flow to them over One Nation in my opinion. It'll be close, but he won't be number 2. At the same time, there's alot of discussion around Ella Shaw and her ability to replace Odenwalder. I think she's at a disadvantage, considering Odenwalder was very well-liked and he hasn't done much campaigning with her, but I still think she'll gain alot from that overall.

Ella Shaw (ALP) Wins

Enfield

Everything I've heard about Lawrence Ben (ALP) tells me that he is not a good candidate. His campaign is seemingly disorganised, he himself isn't the best with strategic direction, and his background reeks of favouritism in why he got selected. None of this will be enough to stop him, and quite frankly, he is still far better than the 'destroyer of stupol' Oscar Ong (LIB). Most interesting part of this seat will be seeing whether Leila Clendon (SA Socialists) will get an amount above 2%.

Lawrence Ben (ALP) Wins

Finniss

Last election, Lou Nicholson (IND) came within 350 votes of beating David Basham for the seat in the 2 candidate preferred race. This election, she will beat him. The Liberal's downfall alongside Labor's declining primary vote are both massive gains for Nicholson, especially considering that last election, when Labor had a 40% primary vote, their candidate for this seat only hit 23%. As long as Nicholson stays around the 20% mark, she'll win, and I think a significant amount of Liberal voters will flow to her. I'll also note that Labor's candidate, Phoebe Reddington, is barely a candidate at all (she's incredibly new to electoral politics, was announced quite late, and as far as I know is running a relatively  quiet campaign), so I doubt she'll be getting too much of a swing.

Lou Nicholson (IND) Wins

Flinders

I've seen people predicting that Flinders will go the way of an Independent. While I am big on a few independents at this election, nothing I've seen suggests that Meghan Petherick, Rod Keogh, and Craig Haslam will win. The last two are essentially non-starters, while Petherick will probably end up like Snape in Adelaide, with a good showing but not enough. Same Telfer (LIB) is not losing this seat, it would take a swing of absurd proportions for him to lose it and I just don't see it happening. If he loses, the One Nation swing must've have been historical.

Sam Telfer (LIB) Retains

Florey

This initially looked like quite a boring seat, however, the return of its previous MP, Frances Bedford, has made it somewhat interesting. She's not going to win, her campaign hasn't been high profile enough and she appeared quite late in the game, but she could certainly take primary votes away from both major parties. Look to her to finish third, if not second. 

Michael Brown (ALP) Retains

Gibson

Here's another case of decent contender, wrong election. Jane Fleming (LIB) has been quite the active candidate and in other elections would likely give Sarah Andrews (ALP) a run for her money. Not this election though.

Sarah Andrews (ALP) Retains

Giles

This very well could be the first seat called on the night.

Eddie Hughes (ALP) Retains

Hammond 

In some ways I feel bad for Adrian Pederick (LIB). He's been the member for the seat for the last 20 years, and yet, if you told 99% of people he was an MP, they'd tell you you're lying. I also feel bad for him because he's losing his seat. The rise of One Nation, the absurd amount of candidates, and two notable candidates in Simone Bailey (ALP) and Airlie Keen (IND) give him no chance of retaining. II actually suspect Keen and Bailey will be the 2cp, however, I think Bailey edges Keen out in the end.

Simone Bailey (ALP) Wins

Hartley

As Antony Green said to me last night, "I was once told you need an Italian last name to win Hartley". And while many seem to think this isn't true anymore, I still think it holds water. Vincent Tarzia (LIB) is a known survivor, having beaten Nick Xenophon at his peak (in a three race race that Tarzia was meant to be a distant third in). Furthermore, Jenn Roberts is decidedly not Italian, and her campaign, while active, has not been the best organised from what I've heard. The day may come where Hartley does not elect an Italian, but Saturday won't be that day.

Vincent Tarzia (LIB) Retains

Heysen

This is the seat that the Greens have put all of their eggs into. There is a genuine belief by some that the Greens will, if not win Heysen, at the very least do quite well. I do not hold that belief. I am of the opinion that they won't even come 2nd (and if Andrew Granger was running a more notable campaign, I could see them coming 4th). They might do quite well in primary vote share, but unless Josh Teague has a catastrophic collapse in his primary votes and the Greens do excellently (as in, Teague loses 10% and the Greens gain 10%), them coming 2nd isn't a reality. Teague, on the other hand, is also not going to do as well as he hoped because he's losing his seat.

Marisa Bell (ALP) Wins

Hurtle Vale

Not much to say here. Nat Cook wins lol.

Nat Cook (ALP) Retains

Kaurna

See above, but in this case its Chris Picton wins lol.

Chris Picton (ALP) Retains

Kavel

This might be one of the hardest seats to call. All sense should say that David Leach (ALP) will have this seat in the bag. However, if we consider the fact that Matt Schultz (IND) was endorsed by Kavel's retiring MP Dan Cregan as well as the area's quite popular federal MP Rebekha Sharkie, its created a feeling in my gut that Schultz's got it. The collapse of the Liberal party will only help him, since I think a significant number of voters will go over to him in the seat than One Nation. It'll be between him and Leach, but I think Schultz wins out. Also, Jacob Van Raalte comes last.

Matt Schultz (IND) Wins

King

See earlier Labor regions. Rhiannon Pearce wins lol.

Rhiannon Pearce (ALP) Retains

Lee

David Wilkins has perhaps run the most annoying/obnoxious Labor campaign in this election (do not get me started on the wobbleboarding), but it will work in his favour. He's well-known, seemingly well-liked, and taking over from a decently well-liked Labor member in Stephen Mulligan. He's going to win, while Merlindie Fardone (LIB) becomes another one of those 'wrong election' candidates.

David Wilkins (ALP) Wins

Light

The former seat of Tony Piccolo, Light seems like a place where One Nation or the Liberals could do well. They won't, even though I actually think this seat is more likely to push One Nation into 2nd than Elizabeth (its Gawler people). 

James Agness (ALP) Wins

MacKillop

Nick McBride has been accussed of assault on multiple occasions, and as he seems to enjoy noting, has been wearing an ankle monitor throughout the campaign period. Unfortunately, I do not think that will damage his chances of winning. Mark Braes (ALP) and Rebekah Rosser (LIB) aren't bad candidates, and theoretically this is the perfect seat for Jason Virgo (ON). However, McBridge is just very popular in this area, and I cannot see him losing despite all of his horrible issues.

Nick McBridge (IND) Retains

Mawson

Jenni Mitton (ALP) wins, and I hope Tyler Green (ON, ex-Libertarian) does poorly.

Jenni Mitton (ALP) Wins

Morialta

Scott Kennedy (LIB) is again, another one of those 'in a different election' Liberal candidates. In another time, he'd have a shot, but not in this election. One person who I actually think will do better than expected is Jenn Tranter (GRN), she won't come third but I actually expect she may get close to 15%.

Matthew Marozzi (ALP) Wins

Morphett

I'm going to miss Stephen Patterson's teeth, because he ain't retaining.

Toby Priest (ALP) Wins

Mount Gambier

This is, by far, the hardest seat to call. One poll-shaped objects and a couple news articles seem to think Travis Fatchen (IND) is going to win, and I won't lie, I can't blame them. My gut currently says he will win as well, but don't be surprised if I wake up tomorrow morning and change this. It'll be a tough fight between him and Matthew Key (ALP), and I suspect perhaps SA's closest '4-way race' with Larmona Alexander (LIB) and Anne-Marie Loef (ON) also doing quite well. Who come's second will be very interesting to see on the night, since, in my opinion, that'll be entirely predicated on whose out 4th.

Travis Fatchen (IND) Wins

Narungga

Fraser Ellis (IND) retains though I do think One Nation shenanigans here could make this seat abit weird (in that they may come 3rd, or even 2nd).

Fraser Ellis (IND) Retains

Newland

In my eyes, Olivia Savvas (ALP) is potentially the next leader of the Labor party. She's a good operator, intelligent, and well-liked. That being said, there's no way she's losing this seat, although Sarai Birch (LIB) is yet again another one of the 'not at this election' Liberals.

Olivia Savvas (ALP) Retains

Ngadjuri

The only place where two sitting members, Tony Piccolo (ALP) and Penny Pratt (LIB) are fighting for the one seat with Piccolo having moved over from Light. I think this was a good choice, as he's very likely to win this. 

Tony Piccolo (ALP) Wins

Playford

John Fulbrook (ALP) wins lol.

John Fulbrook (ALP) Retains

Port Adelaide

This is a massive field of candidates, and imo, it'll be a bloodbath in the lower areas. Claire Boan (IND) joining the race makes things tricky as does Gary Johnson (IND). With Labor MP Susan Close retiring from this seat, it seems like it should be a win for Cheyne Rich (ALP), and I think it will be, but I think Boan, Johnson, Scott Anderson (LIB), and Hayden Shaw (GRN) will do quite well as well. Anderson in particular is another case of 'in a different election maybe'. Joel Hendrie (ON) may do well, but I personally hope he does terribly. One final interesting bit for Port Adelaide is Anne McMenamin (IND) whose a part of Socialist Alliance. It will be interesting to see if an Independent Socialist not aligned with SA Socialists will get above last.

Cheyne Rich (ALP) Wins

Ramsay

Zoe Bettison (ALP) has got this in the bag. 

Zoe Bettison (ALP) Retains

Reynell

See above (isn't funny to make the same joke twice?).

Katrine Hildyard (ALP) Retains

Schubert

Ashton Hurn (LIB), by all accounts, should probably be able to hold this seat. Her opponent is a 21-year old Uni Student whose here mostly for experience. Yet, I think becoming leader of the Liberal party is going to be her downfall. People don't like the party, and I think that will reflect on her immensely in the result. She'll go down fighting, but it won't be enough.

James Rothe (ALP) Wins

Stuart

As both Antony and I stated last night, Geoff Brock (IND) winning this seat last election was a miracle for him. That miracle won't happen again. His primary vote share will be eaten into by Labor and One Nation, and there's just nothing he can do about it. Doesn't help that David Ewings (ALP) is actually a competent and good candidate.

David Ewings (ALP) Wins

Taylor

Nick Champion (ALP) wins lol.

Nick Champion (ALP) Retains

Torrens

Meagan Spencer (ALP) is running quite a strong campaign, and in my opinion none of the candidates going up against her are as decent as candidates as she is. This might actually be a bit of a landslide for Labor.

Meagan Spencer (ALP) Wins

Unley

This is an interesting one because of the existence of Ryan Harrison (IND). Harrison, who was a Labor diehard until he lost pre-selection to a woman, has been quite the strong presence recently. Now, he won't win, but his presence alongside Dylan Kiernan (GRN) and Jason Wilkinson (ON) will change this relatively straightforward seat into abit of a weird one. Don't be shocked if Harrison does decently here.

Alice Rolls (ALP) Wins

Waite

The original news story seat because of Frank Pangallo's move to join the Liberals, I bet these days he wishes he took his chance as a LegCo Independent. He's going to lose, and I actually think it will be a bit of a beating. Look for him to end up below 30%, and maybe even closer to 20%.

Catherine Hutchesson (ALP) Retains

West Torrens

If you need to have an Italian name to win Hartley, you need to be named Koutsantonis to win West Torrens. Tom Koutsantonis (ALP) has this seat until he resigns or dies, and who knows which will come first.

Tom Koutsantonis (ALP) Retains

Wright

This is a boring seat, except for the fact that Carston Woodhouse (LIB) got disendorsed. If enough Liberal voters know and care, we could see something insane happen like Blair Boyer getting 80% of the primary vote, or One Nation actually being competitve in a seat that they have no right to be competitive in. More likely, people still vote for Woodhouse, and I hope its to a point where he comes 2nd, just because that would be hilarious.

Blair Boyer (ALP) Retains

Minor Party Predictions

Animal Justice Party

AJP has slowly becoming a 'significant' minor party (I know its an oxymoron) over the last decade, and this election gives them the chance to continue winning seats across the country. Unfortunately for them, I don't think this election will another success for them. They'll fall short of getting a seat in the Legislative Council, though don't be shocked if they get close (somewhere between the 14th to 12th zone).

Highest Lower House Result: 4.5%

Legislative Council Result: 3%

Australian Family Party

Another minor party who, according to the polls, is in with a shot this year. I don't think that shots true, as I think much of their vote is going to be cannibalised by One Nation. They have got candidates in every seat though, so there's a chance one does better than a couple percent (highly unlikely though).

Highest Lower House Result: 2.5%

Legislative Council Result: 1.5%

Family First

The more likely of the two Family parties to recieve a decent result, I think Family First have the same issue as the AFP. Their vote, fundamently, will be eaten into by One Nation (and also by the other family party). Maybe Deepa Mathew gets in the LegCo by the skin of her teeth, but I could see so many other options before her for the 11th seat.

Highest Lower House Result: 4%

Legislative Council Result: 3%

Jing Lee Better Community

This community is just Jing Lee, and despite the decieving amount of corflutes she has up, she ain't going to be doing much this election.

Highest Lower House Result: N/A

Legislative Council Result: 1%

Legalise Cannabis

The ultimate single issue party (besides One Nation), Legalise Cannabis is running a pretty broad campaign in SA then in other years. Fundamentally, they're a party pushing a want that most people are fine with, and for alot of disaffected voters, they're an easy party to put your no.1 preference behind. I don't think they'll get enough to win a LegCo seat this year, but it may be very close.

Highest Lower House Result: 3%

Legislative Council Result: 4%

Nationals

The Nationals aren't a force in SA, and even though this new group of Nationals has an actually 'okay' policy list and a eh group of candidates, they're going to be run over by every single other right-wing party in the state. Maybe they do okay in Flinders, but that's a seat that seems like it'll be hell.

Highest Lower House Result: 2%

Legislative Council Result: 1%

Sarah Game Fair Go for Australia

Before Chris McDermott left the party and trashed it, I thought Fair Go could be abit of a dark horse. Now, considering the fact that Sarah Game is literally putting out paid advertisements on facebook telling people to not preference her party (and further down, to vote 1 under the line for her no.2 candidate), I think the party's hopes are completely gone. It will be interesting to see how well McDermott does, especially considering that Fair Go are rather high on multiple parties' how to vote cards.

Highest Lower House Result: 2.5%

Legislative Council Result: 2%

Stephen Pallaras Real Change SA

Always a hard one to pick considering the party is mostly centrist except for its 'abolish parole' policies, I think there is a good chance it does well. I don't think many of its candidates will, but it could go decently far in the LegCo, though Pallaras will not be getting in.

Highest Lower House Result: 1.5%

Legislative Council Result: 2%

SA-Best

Ever since Connie Bonaros called Cory Bernardi a malaka, I've been big on SA-Best. I think Bonaros has run a decent campaign, and the fact that she has 4 additional LegCo candidates and a lower house candidate suggests she think she has a chance. I hope and predict she'll win her seat back, but nothing more.

Highest Lower House Result: 2%

Legislative Council Result: 5%

United Voice Australia Party

A title that should really read "Mark Aldridge's Cookers United Party", UVAP is probably going to do the worst out of all the parties. His candidates are terrible, his campaign is terrible, he keeps going on facebook talking about how bad everything is doing. There's just no hope here. In fact, the other day Mark posted saying he's fucked up finances for the party, and unless the party gets a good primary vote result, things ain't looking good. And so, I'll make the extra prediction that not a single UVAP candidate will get their deposit back.

Highest Lower House Result: 1.5%

Legislative Council Result: 1%