Welcome to my 2026 SA State Election Live Thread! This is my first time doing one of these for an election, so it's going to be abit of an experiment. I'll be updating this thread throughout the night with results and other news. I'll also be keeping track of my own predictions here. Finally, from 7pm-7:30pm I will be on Ben Raue's The Tally Room's election night livestream, so be sure to check me out there!
I'll obviously be keeping an eye out for the major stories of the night, things like how many seats Labor gets, whether One Nation finishes 2nd anywhere (or god forbid, first). I'll also be looking across the state at key seats, including Mount Gambier, Kavel, Elizabeth, Narungga, and Finniss amongst others, since these are some of the seats where the outcome isn't just Labor Wins Lol. Finally, since I am a bit of a minor-party head, I will be taking the time to look at how minor parties are doing across the night, especially in regards to the SA Socialists, Fair Go for Australia, SA Best, and Legalise Cannabis.
If you've got any questions or comments, feel free to comment on this post or on the Bluesky post containing the link to this thread and I'll respond once I see it.
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Prediction Tally
Lower House:
Correct ✔ |
Incorrect ✖ |
Upper House:
Correct ✔ |
Incorrect ✖ |
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Live Updates
9:35pm
In a short update, the SA Socialists are currently beating the Liberals in Croydon (7.5% to 7.2%), meaning the Liberals are 5th in that seat. Genuinely insane, don't think anyones predicted this.
9:30pm
Taylor is starting to look like an interesting seat. The ABC, but not the Pollbludger site, is suggesting that One Nation may be winning the 2CP. I'm not sure how, Labor is on 41% while One Nation is on 29.7%, and with the Greens on 10.6% I can't see One Nation's path to victory here. But the ABC suggests there is one, so keep an eye here.
9:20pm
One of the most interesting 'basic' Liberal vs Labor seats right now is Heysen. Josh Teague (LNP) is currently ahead in the primary vote with 31%, while Marisa Bell (ALP) is coming 2nd with 25%. With the ABCs estimated preferences, Bell is winning the 2pp 51/49, a very close result that very well could change when one considers the fact that the Greens have 23.7% of the vote. The Greens wont come 2nd, One Nation flows will ensure that, but their preferences may swing this even further in Labor's favour.
9:00pm
Looking at the overall state, the One Nation vote is going down as I suspected. They're still on 21% but thats much lower than earlier, and all of that is pretty much coming from the Liberals, who are down 17% (while One Nation is up 18%). Labor on the other hand is down 2%, and I suspect that most of this is going to the Greens who are up 3%. In terms of seats, Labors on 29 in the ABC and the Liberals are on 5, Kavel seems to have gone back to 'in doubt'. Pollbludger meanwhile has 26 Labor, 4 Liberal, 2 One Nation (Hammond and Narungga) and 2 Independents (Kavel and Mount Gambier). Things are firming up right now, but I think its quite clear that the Liberals will remain the opposition, which, in all honesty, could be a massive stumbling block for One Nation's rise in SA.
Looking at some key seats, Ella Shaw (ALP) is vastly ahead in Elizabeth now, with 42% of the primary vote with 10% of the vote counted. Hanton (ON) is down to 31%, so I think we're at a point where its safe to call it for Labor, especially with the Greens on 11%. Finniss meanwhile continues to be a 3 horse race, with One Nation and the Liberals on the same vote of 23.3% and Lou Nicholson trailing by only 1.5%. Still too close to call, but I think Nicholson probably has it on these results. Mount Gambier continues to be a very interesting seat, with Travis Fatchen on 26.5% and One Nation on 28.7%. That seat is entirely going to come down to 34% of preference flows, which will be an insane thing to watch. Finally, over in Stuart, I'll bow my head and say I got that one wrong, Geoff Brock's got 36% vs One Nation's 28% and I don't think Liberal preferences will give enough to One Nation for them to win.
8:35pm
Absolutely horrific line from Nick McBridge on the ABC. "My issues have come back to haunt me", the issues being charges of assault against his wife. There was an audible laugh on the ABC broadcast when he said that. I may have predicted wrong, but I am happy he may lose. "My allegations haven't been proven, haven't been substantiated" and now he's complaining about not being presumed innocent. Absolute horror show.
8:25pm
There is one silver lining for the Liberal Party so far, and that is in Bragg. There, Jack Batty has managed to retain against Rick Sarre (making this Sarre's 5th election loss). Batty has 42.7% of the primary vote, so his retain there is certain.
8:15pm
Looking at some interesting candidates, Frank Pangallo in Waite is looking like he'll be coming third in primary votes there below the Greens, though I suspect One Nation preferences will put him into 2nd place overall. In Unley, Ryan Harrsion has crashed and burnt, with only 3.7% of the vote. That seat seems to be almost certainly Labor's win, with Alice Rolls taking that off the Liberals. Daivd Speirs, running in Black, may enter the 2CP race depending on if he can beat out the Greens and One Nation in primaries (its a very close race there with all three on 15%-17%), but he has no chance of winning. Finally, in Finniss, it seems likely that Independent Lou Nicholson will take it, though she is third in the primary vote share on 21.6% with One Nation and the Liberals above here with about 2% more of the vote. I think, if Nicholson keeps it close, preferences from the Independent Bron Lewis, the Greens, and Labor will get her the win.
8:10pm
A seat I have personal interest in, Croydon, is looking interesting. Premier Malinauskas has obviously won the seat, but has done so by losing 5% of his primary vote. The current results, at 11% counted, suggest One Nation will come third with 12%, but it is really close, with the Greens on 9%, Liberals on 8%, SA Socialists on 7.5%, and Family First on 6%. Preference flows from the SA Socialists, which will massively favour the Greens, could have the Greens coming 2nd, for instance, while a 2% swing could see the Socialists come third and take Greens preferences. Very interesting to watch.
8:05pm
Looking at the overall picture, between ABC and Pollbludger there's abit of an interesting different. Polbludger has Labor on 13, Liberals on 2, One Nation on 1, while the ABC has Labor on 20, the Liberals on 3, and an Independent (I assume Matt Schultz in Kavel) on 1. Pollbludger shows Narungga is going to be a One Nation gain, while it seems Kavel and Mt Gambier will go to Independents according to them.
One Nation's primary vote is falling now as urban seats come in, down to 20.7%, only slightly higher than the Liberals who are on 20%. I think its likely that vote falls even lower, to 19%, but only time will tell.
8:00pm
Looking at a few seats right now in focus, Elizabeth is a very interesting one. Only 1% have been counted, but if Labor and One Nation end up on similar primary votes and the Greens vote of 13% holds, its hard to say that won't be a Labor retain. Mount Gambier on the flip side seems like hell to call, with One Nation and the Independent Travis Fatchen both sitting on 26% with 13% counted. One suspects Fatchen will win based on Liberal and Labor preference flows but we may not know for a very good while. Finally, looking at Chaffey, One Nation and the Liberals are also equal on 35% with 9% counted. It'll be very hard to say which will win, but one has to assume that the Greens and Labor preferences will flow better to the Liberals.
7:50pm
ABC has called the election for Labor. This is not shocking at all. The bigger question will be how much they win by and who ends up coming second.
7:45pm
I've finished up with the Tally Room, and things are looking incredibly spicy! One Nation seems to have gotten the numbers the polls have said they would have, but it hasn't translated into seats just yet. Currently, they're not actually ahead in the 2CP for any seat, but that may very well change as 2CP counts occur. I will say this is looking to be a poor election for Independents and also alot of the Liberals. I don't think either side will be wiped out, but it certainly seems both have lost voters to One Nation.
Key seats to keep an eye out for include Mt Gambier where it may very well end up being Independent vs One Nation, as well as Chaffey, Elizabeth, and Narungga.
7:00pm
Our first results are in! Of course, as we always here, they never tell the story of the night. But it is interesting to look at them.
6:33pm
We're hearing that the ECSA has decided that a few seats have decided on ~a dozen seats where its not being counted as a two party count. Some are sensible, like Kavel where its Independent vs One of the Majors, others aren't in my opinon, such as Schubert being Liberal vs One Nation. It'll be interesting to see if its got these right or not.
6:00pm
Voting has closed! I think we'll be waiting around 20-30 minutes for results, so we're in that weird period of the night.
3:30pm
Election day is here! With 2.5hrs to go until polls close and counting starts, its time for me to open up this thread. It's pretty beautiful weather here in Adelaide, 23 degrees and sunny, so that may assist with electoral turnout. Vibes on the ground feel pretty normal, my booth had volunteers from the SA Socialists, Greens, Labor, AJP, and the Liberals, as well as A-Frames from Tammy Franks and 'Muslim Votes Matters', so you'd think my seat was some leftist wonderland. A drive around changes this view abit, I've seen other polling places with One Nation, United Voice Australia, and Family First, but it does make my polling location abit of an interesting outlier. I will say that the effects of pre-poll voting are becoming quite clear, I was in and out of the location in 5 minutes with essentially no line. And of course, I got my 2 democracy sausages and solo, so it was good there.
Of course, we've still got a decent bit of time before the election which I'm going to use preparing, but soon, we'll be into the real start of the day. We'll see how much Labor will win by, how badly the Liberals lose, whether the polls are right on One Nation, and which party does the worst in every seat. Keep an eye here because I am going to try and update quite frequently.
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