Yesterday's election was one for the history books. The Malislide has came and went, and yet its affects were dampened by the simultaneous appearance of an orange wave. All this has cause catastrophe for the Liberals, but at the same time, they managed to do better in seats than some polls were suggesting. This is all to say that South Australia has become a testing ground for what really happens when the primary votes of the Major Parties falter, and I think its an incredibly interesting thing to examine closer.
Starting broad and making our way in, I think we've got a pretty clear picture now of how SA is turning out numbers-wise. Labor's got 39% of the vote and is on track to win 35 seats, the Liberals have 19% of the vote and will probably take home 5 seats, One Nation has 21.7% of the vote and will win up to 4 seats, while the Greens had 11% for 0 seats (unless Heysen gets really weird, we'll talk about that in a second), and it seems very likely that there will be at least 3 Independents (could be 4 depending on Kavel). These results are playing out in a similar way in the Legislative Council. Labor's won 4 seats, One Nation 2 seats, the Liberals 1 with 1 likely, and the Greens 1 seat with fairly similar vote shares. 2 seats are very much in doubt, though with One Nation on a 2.8 quota I suspect they'll win a 3rd seats, and than it'll actually come down to preferences between Labor, the Greens, and Legalise Cannabis, with Family First having an outside chance. We'll also talk more about the Legislative Council later on, because I think its results are going to massively shape political rhetoric and debates in the years to come. As an aside, pour one out for the loss of Tammy Franks, Jing Lee, and Connie Bonaros, none of them are retaining their seats.
One notable thing, in my opinion, is the fact that One Nation will not be the opposition. While One Nation's surge has met the expectations of the polls, the fact that they will remain SA's third party will massively hurt them over the next 4 years. They need sustained media presence to remain strong, and unless they think they can maintain a surge based on the politics of the moment across 4 years, their strategy of complain without many policies won't work. Don't get me wrong, this result is also horrific for the Liberals, but them remaining opposition will give them the chance to right the ship before 2030, while not being in opposition gives One Nation every chance to completely screw things up.
Seat Analysis
Narrowing in abit, lets talk about some specific seats. Starting with Adelaide, Labor's held that aggressively, despite 10% of people in the seat voting for 'wanted man on the run' Aoi Baxter (and that isn't coming from pre-polls, people on the day literally voted for him). The biggest story there is Keiran Snape just coming in at 9.5%, just under the 10% I predicted he'd get. Considering he ran a pretty active campaign, one would assume that result isn't as high as he would have hoped, though I doubt this is the last time we'll have seen Snape around.
Black is another one where an Independent has fallen where many predicted they'd rise. "I'd do a line or two" ex-Leader of the Opposition David Speirs has come 4th with 14% of the vote, and while the ABC and poll bludger are predicting Speirs will end up in the 2CP, he would still have to jump the Greens and One Nation (yes, the Liberals are 5th in the seat with a dismal 8.6%). From what I heard of people watching the broadcast, Speirs was having a dismal time on 9 News table during the night. Another seat where the Liberals are having a downright atrocious time is in Croydon. The seat of Premier Malinauskas (who's seeing a 4.5% decrease in his primary vote currently), the Liberals are currently 4th but have the SA Socialists nipping at their heels, with only 70 votes between them. It does seem that the seat is going to become a weird Labor v One Nation seat, though this barely matters in the grand scheme considering 2CP estimates have Malinauskas winning with 75% of the vote.
Moving on to some seats which were looking weird at the start of the night, we've got Elizabeth, Finniss, and Flinders. Elizabeth is firmly with Labor now, but, as I mentioned last night on the Tally Room livestream, the choice to select a stupol hack in the seat has come back to bite Labor on the ass, with Ella Shaw seeing a 14% swing against her. Part of this issue can be seen in the Greens getting a 3% swing to them, in a seat that doesn't fit the Greens generally. I'll also note that the Liberals at 5% in the seat, only ~200 votes above Family First and Legalise Cannabis. Finniss, on the other hand, is a very interesting one. Lou Nicholson is 3rd behind the Liberals and One Nation, but despite being 3% behind both (she's on 20.5%), it seems likely she'll win the seat off Bron Lewis', Greens', and Labor's preferences. This is one of the few seats where Labor is coming 4th, with only 17% of the vote, so Labor will certainly need to look at what they've done wrong there in the coming months. Finally, in Flinders, it seems Telfer has beaten back a rather determined surge by One Nation. With 34% of the vote, the Liberals will keep that seat, and I stand confirmed in my disbelief of Meghan Petherick actually winning the seat (I will be honest, if One Nation didn't contest I think she does win).
There are a few key seats will in doubt. Hammond, for instance, looks like it'll fall to One Nation, but that entirely relies on how Liberal and Independent preferences fall (I overestimated how well Airlie Keen was going to do, her vote was entirely cannabilised by One Nation it seems). What we do know is that 20-year no brand recognition MP Adrian Pederick is out of that seat, no matter if Labor or One Nation win. Heysen is another seat that's going to massively rely on proper preference counts. Labor and the Liberals are neck andd neck in that race, with the ABC suggesting that there's only 76 votes in the 2PP count, but it is still possible that the Greens manage to come 2nd. That'll entirely depend on how One Nation preferences fall, and while one would imagine that the Greens won't get many One Nation preferences, they do tend to be really weird, and after you take away the significant amount that'll flow to the Liberals, there are likely plenty of One Nation voters who put the major parties last and as such put the Greens above Labor. I don't know if the Greens would win in such a scenario, but I don't think such a scenario is out of view just yet. Kavel also remains in doubt, though I am pretty confident the Independent, Matt Schultz, is going to win. The ABC has the seat in doubt because, depending on preferences, One Nation could leapfrog him, but I am not certain Greens and Liberal preferences will flow heavily enough to them for that to happen. If it does, I think Labor wins based on Schultz's preferences.
As an aside, my hot take of Vincent Tarzia retaining Hartley has been obliterated. Labor's Jenn Roberts took home 37% of the vote, while Tarzia's primary vote share collapsed by 21%, ending on 30% overall. The man who beat Nick Xenophon could not survive the orange wave, though it is notable that One Nation only increased by 15% here, meaning a significant amount of Tarzia's share was spread elsewhere.
Looking at some more regional and of interest seats, MacKillop is likely to fall into One Nation's hands, though it is very close and entirely possible that the Liberals get the seat. Nick McBride, whose comments last night downplayed his assault charges and suggested that him being 'unfairly' seen as guilty caused issue for his campaign, will likely come 4th. Turns out my belief that those in MacKillop would turn a blind eye to his behaviour was wrong, though I highly suspect this is more a result of One Nation's surge than anything McBride did. Mount Gambier, meanwhile, seems to be in the hands of Independent Travis Fatchen (seems my gut feeling the night before was right), though it is a close primary vote race between him and One Nation. Preferences from Labor, the Liberals, and the Greens will get him over the line. Shockingly, Cody Scholes got 6% of the vote, which is a depressing fact. Narungga is a seat from last night that people seemed certain One Nation had one. As it stands right now, the Liberals are leading the 2CP by 200 votes, despite them only having 23% of the primary vote share and One Nation having 37%. Pollbludger has that seat as a One Nation gain, but thats going off an Independent v One Nation 2cp which I don't think is going to happen anymore. Another interesting seat from the election is Ngadjuri. Currently, One Nation is in the lead there, but that entirely depends on whether Labor the Liberals are excluded first (at this point it seems the Liberals will be, giving One Nation the win). Either way, it seems Tony Piccolo's move to the seat was very poorly decided, though in Antony Green's words, it does give him the excuse to retire. Finally, looking at Stuart, it seems Geoff Brock has retained the seat and my hot take (slightly misinformed by me misreading the 3cp from last election) was wrong.
To round off, I've got a couple seats that are of interest to me. Labor will hold Port Adelaide, and Claire Boan has soundly been seen off, coming third with 14% of the vote. True Blue Crew member Joel Hendrie got 20% of the vote, which is dire scenes, while Socialist Alliance Independent Anne McMenamin got 1.6% of the vote to come 8th. Meanwhile, in Schubert, Hurn held her seat despite my doubts, and actually didn't lose much of her primary vote. On the 2CP, she is actually up 10%, though that comes down to Labor finishing 3rd (turns out a 21yr old uni student isn't a good pick in elections like this). Stopping at Unley for a quick second, Ryan Harrison only finished on 4.4%, though I think that won't stop him from trying again in the future, while in Waite, watchdog Frank Pangallo is going to lose and may even come third considering the fact that the Greens are right on his tail (both being on 16.7%). Lastly, in Wright, 8.5% of people voted for Carston Woodhouse despite him being disendorsed nearly a week prior to the election, though that did see a 23% swing away from the Liberals in the seat.
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