So the 2025 WA state election is done and dusted (besides a bunch of counting still to be done), and with a significant amount of results out now, I wanted to give my thoughts on the election as a whole. As this is the first one I'll be doing here, I'm still working out a format, but I'll probably give my general thoughts before going party by party. Let me know what you think!
General Thoughts
This election is interesting to look at, when you consider many people's expectations going in.
While a Labor win was always the expected outcome, and honestly, anyone who thought otherwise probably wasn't paying attention, the current results were far better for the incumbent government (Labor) than most thought they would be. Having watched election coverage live, both pundits and members/candidates from both major parties believed that Labor was in to lose ~15-20 seats in the lower house, retaining its majority but making the Liberals and Nationals a competitive opposition. While results are still being counted, it looks likely that Labor will end with their numbers being anywhere between 45-50 seats, meaning that Labor will lose, at most, ~8 seats. Meanwhile, it is likely that neither the Liberals nor the Nationals, will have enough members each to support their own on-field soccer team (11 players/11 seats). In a general sense, that's a disaster of a result for both parties, so much so that even Antony Green said something similar on the ABC broadcast.
Now, what does this mean for the future of the WA parliament? Well, at the very least, it means that the Liberals and Nationals will likely need another election to rebuild themselves before they can actually challenge for government, as at most they'll still be ~15 seats away from government by the end of the results being counted. So, unless disaster hits over the next 4 years, WA Labor can probably expect another term of 'safety' before truly having to fight in 2033.
However, its not all roses for them. While the Legislative Council (Upper House) votes are still only just over half-counted, we can make a lot of conclusions from them. While Labor will have a healthy majority in the lower house, it'll have no majority in the upper house, and will therefore have to look to the Greens, or a group of completely unrelated minor party members, to pass any legislation they wish too. But, we'll talk more about that soon.
Before we get to the party comments, I know many are wondering what conclusion we can take from this election in regards to the upcoming Federal election. Based on the way in which many were pessimistic for Labor's results in WA, as they are federally, it is possible to suggest that Labor might actually do better than expected in the federal election as well. However, things aren't the same. While Roger Cook isn't the uber-popular Mark McGowan, he is still quite popular, something Prime Minister Albanese can't really claim (atleast, based on polling). Nonetheless, there are signs of hope for the Labor faithful, though I would remain cautious of extrapolating this election's results and making predictions based off of it.
Party by Party Thoughts
Below, you'll find my thoughts for each party, in order based on their first preference results. This is all subjective, so obviously take what you want from this, but do remember they are my thoughts and my thoughts alone.
The Labor Party
These guys are 100% the party most happy with the election. They kept their government, held onto far more seats than they seemingly expected, and will likely be some level of safe going into the next election. There's honestly not much to say about them, they won and won quite hard. The big challenge coming up than is whether the party can keep momentum across the next four years, and whether Roger Cook can magic up a success next election that doesn't just have them losing more seats.
The Liberal Party
Once again, there's not much to say here. By far the party most unhappy with this election's results (besides maybe the Nationals), one would suggest while this cannot hurt more than the 2021 election, that it probably hurts more than 2017. Even despite Labor having a -18% swing against it, the Liberals could only pick up a 7% swing for themselves. And despite that, most of their biggest swings were in incredibly safe Labor seats, 'wasting' these swings and leaving far more marginal seats still in Labor's hands.
Now, there is one big thing coming out immediately from this election for the Liberals. Despite some touch and go moments, it seems ex-TV personality Basil Zempalis will be elected for the Liberals in the seat of Churchlands. Throughout the last night, ABC (mainly David Speers) were doing their best to ask multiple Liberal candidates, including Basil himself, whether he'd try to take leadership away from Libby Mettam. While some Liberals were supportive of Libby, many others were non-committal, with some even giving not-so-sutble indications that they believed Basil would be the better choice (including Liberal MLC Steve Thomas on the ABC broadcast table). The biggest clue regarding this was, when asked before her concession speech, Libby Mettam seemed incredibly disillusioned and suggested she'd take any position the party thought she deserved.
I guess the only solace the Liberals can take from this election is that in the Legislative Council, they're only 5 members off Labor, and so bringing that to even in the next election isn't inconceivable. Though that's a rather thin silver lining isn't it?
The Greens
Coming off the hiding they received at last WA election, the Greens will be rather happy with this result. Despite taking no seats in the lower house, they are now, quite convincingly, the third party of the state, atleast in terms of vote numbers (10% to the Nationals 5.5%). Whether this will translate to seats in the future, its hard to say, but there is something now that the Greens are probably celebrating even harder.
The current Legislative Council results show that the Greens are going to have least 4 seats in the upper house. While this may not seem like a lot, it is enough to mean that they now have the definitive balance of power (although technically the 3 minor party members can also do so, but they will never really engage with each other). Essentially, while the Labor party may have a solid majority in the lower house, they cannot pass any legislation in the upper house without the support of the Greens. As such, I can only assume the Greens are quite happy.
The National Party
Here's the other most unhappy party. Before the election WA's official opposition, it now seems likely they'll be kicked from that spot by the Liberals. While Shane Love may suggest that he and his party is open to negotiating with their expected coalition partners, the talk last night made it seem like all Liberal members expect the Nationals in the state to simply capitulate, no talks needed. Whether Love, whose now gotten a good taste of the limelight (and resources) that being official opposition gets you, will rollover so easily is anyone's guess. But, gaining only one or two seats in the lower house, does not leave him or his party in any spectacular place to negotiate.
While they are still the third party in lower house seats, it is hard to see a future where the Nationals maintain their relevance, especially considering the Greens holding a balance of power. A rather whimpering end to an unexpected period of WA politics.
One Nation
Now, some may suggest that One Nation would be happy with this result. Up to ~4% of the state's vote and a seat in the upper house is quite decent after all, no? And while one can't sneeze at that seat, the percentage of the vote gained is incredibly small when you consider what the polling looks like in every other state for the party. We're talking numbers between 7%-10%. Less than 4% can only be seen as abit of a let down, even if it isn't terrible.
The gain of an upper house seat though does technically mean One Nation, alongside the next two minor parties, also hold a balance of power, although seeing any of them working together is quite unlikely. One Nation is often a wildcard though, and depending on the proposals Labor puts forth, they could always be a potential vote or even 'kingmaker'.
Australian Christians
Well, these guys kind of came out of nowhere. The remnants of a party that actually merged with Cory Bernadi's Conservatives in 2017, the Australian Christians did not feel like a party destined for 'greatness' at this election. And yet, with 3.1% of the vote and one upper house (based on current results), I'd suggest their members see this result as nothing short of a miracle. Getting a seat in any state legislative council is a massive step for many parties (hell, look at what getting into a city council did for the Victorian Socialists notoriety), and the party will likely take this as a way to try and push themselves more nationally. Furthermore, the amount of votes they got is quite close to One Nation, and so that may begin to scare the also right-wing party.
While they also combine with One Nation and the next party to technically form a balance of power in the upper house, it is incredibly unlikely that they'll ever vote alongside Labor (especially if the Greens are also involved). But, they may serve as an ally to the Liberals, or even moreso the Nationals, and that may be interesting to watch.
Legalise Cannabis
Ah, everyone's 'favourite' single-issue party. Now, looking onto their legislative council seats, they're the one party that probably isn't shocked to have a seat, considering they won one last election. However, this election has solidified that seat, and the number of votes to the party means that they now hold the seat on their own quota, without preferences. This, alongside an almost 2% increase in their overall votes in the lower house, is meaningful. This many voters voting for a single-issue party means that there is significant want for that party's platform to succeed, in this case, the legalisation of cannabis. We'll likely see this occur across the country over the coming years, but it seems likely that sooner, rather than later, that WA will actually have to come to terms with cannabis legalisation, whatever that would look like (or whether they actually do it). In any case, I doubt there's any complains from Legalise Cannabis on their results.
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
I doubt this is the result SFF wanted. Only 0.7% of the vote, and currently, the second lowest amount of votes in the Legislative Council, is not a sign of a growing party. Especially when you consider that, as of now, the party hasn't gained in percentage compared to last election. Whatever way you spin it, its not a good look for the party, especially considering gun laws were a topical issue at this election. Whether its because parties like One Nation and Australians Christians have cornered the right-wing market, or because of a stronger Nationals contingent than in many other states, the SFF just can't find a market for itself it seems. For a minor party, stagnation often equals death, so one would suggest that a lot needs to be done before next election.
Animal Justice
Now, 0.4% of the vote is not good. Let's say that right out of the gate. However, there are some bright spots for the Animal Justice party. Firstly, that 0.4% is entirely new voters, as the party did not contest the lower house last state election. More interestingly though is that the party saw a similar increase to its upper house vote, leaving it only a single percentage point behind gaining a seat there (or around half of the quota needed). While, again, this isn't good news, its growth, and so one could suggest that if this continues, it isn't unlikely that AJP gains an upper house seat within the next one or two elections.
Stop Pedophiles! Protect Kiddies!
What a horrible name. Ignoring the obvious dogwhistle going on, the ex-Democratic Labor Party did not do great, with only 0.1% of the state voting for them. There is the easy joke to make that this means only 0.1% of Western Australians want to stop pedophiles, but that's too low hanging for me to make... The party did technically get more votes in the upper house than SFF, which must be a dagger to the heart for that party, and technically they did gain nearly a whole percent there, so that's not bad news. But, lets be real, there's only so much room for an incredibly niche party with a horrid dogwhistle name to grow.
Libertarian Party
Oh god, the Libertarian Party. Their election platform was a horrific bargin bin grab bag of American far-right culture war policies. And so, seeing them at the bottom of both the legislative council and lower house (not even likely to gain over 1,000 votes in the lower house), is quite the relief. However, this probably isn't an uncomfortable spot for the party, considering that in many of the seats they contested at the last federal election (under the name, the Liberal Democrats), they also came last. Not much more to say about these guys, technically, they managed to lose 0.4% votes this election, so like, they're literally in a pit.
Conclusion
The 2025 WA state election was super interesting to watch live. While nothing was really a surprise, its always interesting to see how these things go. There's some definite winners and losers this election, looking at both ends of the results sheet, and it'll be interesting to see whether the minor parties (and Greens) continue their ascension across the next election, or whether that is a one election phenomenon. I guess we're asking something similar to the federal election than, though once again, I don't think many answers for that can be gained from this.
No comments:
Post a Comment